Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:59PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:40 AM EST (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 4:53AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 933 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Light rain after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon...then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Rain. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Areas of fog in the evening. Light rain in the evening...then a chance of light rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers and light rain in the morning...then a chance of light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy then clearing. A chance of light snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912090915;;066631 FZUS63 KDTX 090233 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 933 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.60 inches is set to develop across the central Plains today, where it will travel northeast and strengthen down to 29.50 inches, settling over northern lower Michigan by Monday afternoon. Warm air will draw over the lakes ahead of the low pressure, increasing stability and allowing for calmer winds and wave heights late tonight into late Monday morning. The low will continue to strengthen down to 29.10 inches as it settles over Quebec by Tuesday morning, which will allow a strong cold front to drag across the Great Lakes. Increased wind speeds and wave heights are expected in response to this cold front throughout Tuesday. LCZ460-090915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 090454 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1154 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

AVIATION.

Low level moisture will continue to spread into the area overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Expect a transition to IFR from the current MVFR cigs with spotty showers become more widespread. Eventually, a solid area of rain will encompasses the area Monday morning and persist into the afternoon. LIFR cigs will also be possible KFNT/KMBS nearer the low track. Increased SW/WSW flow will ensue late in the forecast on Monday as the low continues into Ontario. This will bring an end to widespread rain and also lead to a gradual increase in cig heights.

For DTW . Expect cigs below 5kft this forecast with rain overspread the area around daybreak and persisting into mid afternoon. Winds will back to SSE into early morning and then swing to SW/W late in the forecast as low pressure moves east of the area.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through the forecast period.

* High confidence in precipitation falling as all rain.

* Low confidence in cigs aob 200 feet late tonight into early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

DISCUSSION .

A mild and wet start to the work week, with a good shot of cold air for the mid week period.

Narrow stream of moisture (850-700 mb Theta-E) tracking through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon with deep southwest flow ahead of a cold front tracking through the northern Great Lakes as upper level jet max advances through northeastern Ontario and into southern Quebec. Widespread rain likely not developing until late tonight.

Better push of low level moisture (6 C dew pt at 925 mb) into southeast Michigan on Monday as strong upper level wave currently tracking into Montana swings into the western Great Lakes Monday evening. Meanwhile, larger upper wave along the California coast will dive south-southeast, but a piece of upper level PV/energy breaks off and races through the Midwest on Monday, proving favorable ascent. However, better right exit region/moisture surge with the 150+ knot upper level jet looks to be tracking off into the Eastern Great Lakes, with the strengthening surface wave tracking close to the Straights. Weaker pressure fields over southeast Michigan, with sufficiently cold ground and low level moisture coming over the top to support low clouds/fog and rain through the day, but aggressive mid level dry slot arriving by midnight looks to shut off most of the precipitation as the good blast of cold air sweeps in, sending 850 mb temps into the negative mid teens for Tuesday. Still, with cold cyclonic flow, probably steep enough low level lapse rates with modest cape in the DGZ to generate scattered light snow shower/flurry activity, but limited cloud depths preventing more vigorous activity. Potentially a better chance of stronger snow shower activity on Wednesday as more robust upper level wave/cold pool swings through, sending 850 mb temps into the negative lower twenties/around 20 C. Brief support/extension to 700 mb as weak upper wave comes out of the Midwest. Still, extreme dry nature of the arctic airmass is sometimes too much to overcome, as PW Values drop at or below 0.1 inches. Will favor a burst of snow/scattered snow shower mention breaking off Lake Michigan as water temps still hovering around 40 degrees. Strong subsidence/surface anti-cyclone (1040+ mb) building in Wednesday night suggests skies clearing out with temps potentially dipping into the single numbers, even with little or no snow on ground. IF snow cover does materialize, zero or below in normally colder spots not out of the question, but invading high clouds toward sunrise appear likely.

Energetic pseudo zonal upper flow over the Conus on Friday makes for difficult Weekend forecast as flow appears to buckle east of the Mississippi River valley with potential storm system tracking through Central/Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, per 00z Euro. 00z GFS displaced considerably farther to the East, as interaction/merging/phasing with the system tracking through the northern Gulf of Mexico will be the key, and the 00z Canadian illustrates little interaction/much better separation. However, the 12z GFS has trended toward the Euro, thus rain and snow remains in play, but the 12z Euro has now flipped toward the 00z GFS and is well to the east. Plenty of additional flip-flopping remains likely due to multiple upper level wave interactions in play.

MARINE .

Gale warnings and small craft advisories have been allowed to expire as wind gusts and associated wave heights continue to diminish through the evening hours, tied to a weakening pressure gradient. Attention will then turn to a developing low pressure system, set to travel northeast from the central Plains, eventually traveling through northern lower Michigan and Ontario/Quebec. Ahead of the low, surge of warmer air will allow widespread rain to develop across the Great Lakes starting late tonight, which will continue through Monday. Increased stability from the advancing warmer air will allow lighter winds to persist into Monday afternoon as the low settles over northern lower Michigan, with an uptick in wind speeds and gusts expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning given reduced stability from increasing cold air advection. Most locations look to stay below gales at this time, however, northern Lake Huron will have the chance to see low-end gales early Tuesday morning. Last, there is a high probability for snow squalls to travel across Lake Huron and potentially Lake St. Clair both Tuesday and Wednesday given the high instability across the Lakes. Freezing spray also remains possible across Lake Huron on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY .

Rain developing late tonight and continuing through Monday. Mild air with high moisture content for this time of year fuels a cold front and low pressure system moving across the region. Local probability guidance suggests rainfall totals approach a half inch. Locally higher totals are possible in locations where heavier showers occur repeatedly but amounts under one inch. A transition to mixed rain and snow is possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the cold front moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning. The expected rainfall tonight and Monday may lead to ponding of water in prone areas and small rises on area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . AM HYDROLOGY . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi52 min 44°F 40°F1011.5 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi40 min S 7 G 11 47°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi58 min 46°F 1011.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi58 min SSW 6 G 11 46°F 1010.8 hPa41°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi44 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F44°F100%1011.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi47 minS 910.00 miOvercast48°F41°F77%1011.7 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi45 minS 810.00 miOvercast46°F41°F82%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10S12S10S11S11S8S12S13SW14
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1 day agoW4NW4NW5NW3CalmW3CalmCalmS5S5S5SE9SE9S8S8S6S7S7S7S9S10S9S11S11
2 days agoS5SW7SW6W7W8W7NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.