Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 090454 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1154 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

AVIATION.

Low level moisture will continue to spread into the area overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Expect a transition to IFR from the current MVFR cigs with spotty showers become more widespread. Eventually, a solid area of rain will encompasses the area Monday morning and persist into the afternoon. LIFR cigs will also be possible KFNT/KMBS nearer the low track. Increased SW/WSW flow will ensue late in the forecast on Monday as the low continues into Ontario. This will bring an end to widespread rain and also lead to a gradual increase in cig heights.

For DTW . Expect cigs below 5kft this forecast with rain overspread the area around daybreak and persisting into mid afternoon. Winds will back to SSE into early morning and then swing to SW/W late in the forecast as low pressure moves east of the area.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through the forecast period.

* High confidence in precipitation falling as all rain.

* Low confidence in cigs aob 200 feet late tonight into early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

DISCUSSION .

A mild and wet start to the work week, with a good shot of cold air for the mid week period.

Narrow stream of moisture (850-700 mb Theta-E) tracking through southern Lower Michigan this afternoon with deep southwest flow ahead of a cold front tracking through the northern Great Lakes as upper level jet max advances through northeastern Ontario and into southern Quebec. Widespread rain likely not developing until late tonight.

Better push of low level moisture (6 C dew pt at 925 mb) into southeast Michigan on Monday as strong upper level wave currently tracking into Montana swings into the western Great Lakes Monday evening. Meanwhile, larger upper wave along the California coast will dive south-southeast, but a piece of upper level PV/energy breaks off and races through the Midwest on Monday, proving favorable ascent. However, better right exit region/moisture surge with the 150+ knot upper level jet looks to be tracking off into the Eastern Great Lakes, with the strengthening surface wave tracking close to the Straights. Weaker pressure fields over southeast Michigan, with sufficiently cold ground and low level moisture coming over the top to support low clouds/fog and rain through the day, but aggressive mid level dry slot arriving by midnight looks to shut off most of the precipitation as the good blast of cold air sweeps in, sending 850 mb temps into the negative mid teens for Tuesday. Still, with cold cyclonic flow, probably steep enough low level lapse rates with modest cape in the DGZ to generate scattered light snow shower/flurry activity, but limited cloud depths preventing more vigorous activity. Potentially a better chance of stronger snow shower activity on Wednesday as more robust upper level wave/cold pool swings through, sending 850 mb temps into the negative lower twenties/around 20 C. Brief support/extension to 700 mb as weak upper wave comes out of the Midwest. Still, extreme dry nature of the arctic airmass is sometimes too much to overcome, as PW Values drop at or below 0.1 inches. Will favor a burst of snow/scattered snow shower mention breaking off Lake Michigan as water temps still hovering around 40 degrees. Strong subsidence/surface anti-cyclone (1040+ mb) building in Wednesday night suggests skies clearing out with temps potentially dipping into the single numbers, even with little or no snow on ground. IF snow cover does materialize, zero or below in normally colder spots not out of the question, but invading high clouds toward sunrise appear likely.

Energetic pseudo zonal upper flow over the Conus on Friday makes for difficult Weekend forecast as flow appears to buckle east of the Mississippi River valley with potential storm system tracking through Central/Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, per 00z Euro. 00z GFS displaced considerably farther to the East, as interaction/merging/phasing with the system tracking through the northern Gulf of Mexico will be the key, and the 00z Canadian illustrates little interaction/much better separation. However, the 12z GFS has trended toward the Euro, thus rain and snow remains in play, but the 12z Euro has now flipped toward the 00z GFS and is well to the east. Plenty of additional flip-flopping remains likely due to multiple upper level wave interactions in play.

MARINE .

Gale warnings and small craft advisories have been allowed to expire as wind gusts and associated wave heights continue to diminish through the evening hours, tied to a weakening pressure gradient. Attention will then turn to a developing low pressure system, set to travel northeast from the central Plains, eventually traveling through northern lower Michigan and Ontario/Quebec. Ahead of the low, surge of warmer air will allow widespread rain to develop across the Great Lakes starting late tonight, which will continue through Monday. Increased stability from the advancing warmer air will allow lighter winds to persist into Monday afternoon as the low settles over northern lower Michigan, with an uptick in wind speeds and gusts expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning given reduced stability from increasing cold air advection. Most locations look to stay below gales at this time, however, northern Lake Huron will have the chance to see low-end gales early Tuesday morning. Last, there is a high probability for snow squalls to travel across Lake Huron and potentially Lake St. Clair both Tuesday and Wednesday given the high instability across the Lakes. Freezing spray also remains possible across Lake Huron on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY .

Rain developing late tonight and continuing through Monday. Mild air with high moisture content for this time of year fuels a cold front and low pressure system moving across the region. Local probability guidance suggests rainfall totals approach a half inch. Locally higher totals are possible in locations where heavier showers occur repeatedly but amounts under one inch. A transition to mixed rain and snow is possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the cold front moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning. The expected rainfall tonight and Monday may lead to ponding of water in prone areas and small rises on area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . AM HYDROLOGY . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
AGCM4	10 mi	52 min		44°F	40°F		1011.5 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	13 mi	40 min	S 7 G 11	47°F			1011.9 hPa (-1.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	30 mi	58 min		46°F			1011.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI	32 mi	58 min	SSW 6 G 11	46°F			1010.8 hPa	41°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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S12 G16

S10 G18

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S10 G14

SW11 G19

SW13 G23

SW15 G22

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SW15 G21

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SW7 G13

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1 day ago

N4 G7

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SW7 G11

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NW7 G12

NW15 G23

NW13 G19

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N12 G20

NW18 G26

NW11 G16

NW11 G18

NW9 G14

NW7 G18

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NW6 G11

NW10 G17

NW5 G11

NW5 G8

N5

NW9 G14

NW5 G11

N6 G10

NW5 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	7 mi	44 min	SSE 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	45°F	44°F	100%	1011.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	20 mi	47 min	S 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	48°F	41°F	77%	1011.7 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI	24 mi	45 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	46°F	41°F	82%	1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)

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NW13 G20

NW15 G25

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NW14 G22

NW11

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NW11 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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