Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 010415 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1215 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

AVIATION.

A subtle mechanism continues to lead to increased coverage of shower activity that is streaming into far Southeast Michigan from the east. Increased moisture advection at roughly 800mb or in the 3.5 to 6.5 kft agl layer has maintained moist adiabatic lapse rates which yields relatively high convective depths to increase. The saturated, deep mixed layer has been good for shower generation within persistent weakly cyclonic flow. Winds will remain light throughout the period. IFR cigs are still expected to develop later tonight, to low MVFR cig heights are expected through tonight with a diurnal rise in cig heights occurring midday Wednesday.

For DTW . Will maintain rain showers the first part of the period. Persistent stratus deck throughout the night, lifting and scattering eventually Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through early Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mid afternoon visible satellite imagery shows enough texture to suggest peak daytime warming remains capable of scattered shower production during late afternoon and early evening. Surface temperatures struggling to reach the lower 40s are helping destabilize the boundary layer that is deeply saturated with steep low level lapse rate up to around 800 mb. Water vapor satellite imagery and model analysis fields also still show the upper level trough axis lingering overhead which is providing at least a small amount of support for lift. The latest mesoscale/CAMs match up well with regional and global solutions that suggest the shower activity lasts toward mid evening before diminishing with the loss of daytime warming as the primary support. Clouds then hold firmly through the night which combines with cool cyclonic low level flow across the lakes for a small diurnal range in temperatures. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are on target by sunrise Wednesday.

There are some signs of improved sky condition in the consensus of deterministic model data for Wednesday, especially by afternoon. The incoming air mass with high pressure across northern Ontario becomes dry enough to deactivate Lake Huron which results in a decreasing cloud trend across SE Michigan. It may take until later in the day toward the Detroit area but all locations are expected to get enough sunshine to help high temperatures reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. These values are right around normal for April 1st.

The upper level ridge builds over the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday as part of a highly amplified large scale westerly flow. It is not quite a blocking pattern in the model data but no more than slowly progressive which maintains dry weather across Lower Michigan for the late week period. The center of surface high pressure maintains light and variable to light easterly wind across the region which does not produce much thermal advection. Guidance temperatures are clustered in a mostly narrow range and look reasonable in showing a gradual warming trend into the mid and upper 50s along with a cooler component near the shorelines.

The next chance of rain moves in Saturday as a short wave rounds the base of the trough over the Rockies and into the Midwest. The extended range models show the primary surface low ending up near Hudson Bay with a weak front strung out southward through the Great Lakes and Mississippi valley to the Gulf coast. A standard supply of Gulf moisture into the frontal zone along with weak forcing supports the mid chance POPs offered in the guidance for Saturday afternoon and night. The front brings slightly cooler air into the region for Sunday which is compensated for by a greater amount of sunshine compared to Saturday. High temperatures hold around 60 Sunday and have a chance to reach lower 60s to start next week as south wind develops ahead of the next low pressure system.

MARINE .

Light northerly winds will dominate through the rest of this week as the region remains between a high in northern Quebec and a low tracking along through the southeastern US. Expect some ebb and flow between northerly, northwesterly, and northeasterly tonight and Wednesday as the previously mentioned systems slowly slide east resulting in slight changes in the predominate wind direction over the central Great Lakes. Thursday high pressure will build in from the west reinforcing northerly flow. Winds will remain light and slowly rotate to northeasterly Friday and eventually to southeasterly Saturday as the high begins to move east of the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
AGCM4	10 mi	51 min		40°F	38°F		1013.7 hPa (-0.5)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	13 mi	51 min	NNE 8.9 G 11	42°F			1014.6 hPa (-0.6)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	30 mi	57 min		39°F			1013.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI	32 mi	57 min	N 8 G 8.9	38°F			1013.8 hPa	36°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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4 AM

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N6 G11

N9

N18

N14

N16

NE16

N10

N10

N14

N12

N13

N14

N14 G17

N15

N14

N11

N9

N6

N6

N4

N4

N6

N6

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1 day ago

W11 G17

W9 G16

W8 G16

W9 G23

W11 G15

W14 G19

W10 G20

W6 G13

NW8 G11

NW7 G12

W8 G14

NW6 G10

NW7 G12

E6

E6

NE3

NE5

N5

N6

N10 G13

NW3 G6

NW4

NW6 G9

NW6 G9

2 days ago

S14 G19

S13 G16

S9 G16

S7 G10

S10 G16

SW5 G17

SW8 G12

SW12 G22

SW16 G27

SW21 G39

SW18 G28

SW16 G35

SW21 G31

SW17 G26

W13 G26

W13 G23

W14 G28

W16 G27

W12 G17

W17 G25

W11 G19

W12 G17

W11 G23

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	7 mi	55 min	NNE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	40°F	100%	1014.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	20 mi	58 min	N 4	9.00 mi	Overcast	42°F	37°F	85%	1014.5 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI	24 mi	55 min	N 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	37°F	87%	1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)

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N7

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N7

N6

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NE9

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N9

NE6

6

E7

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NE5

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E6

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N7

N8

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N4

1 day ago

W15 G20

W12 G19

W17 G22

W13 G19

SW10 G18

W10 G19

W14 G20

W11 G23

W13 G19

W11

W14 G19

W16 G20

W8

W11 G16

W10

W7

N6

NW9

NW5

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Calm

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N9

2 days ago

E10

E12 G15

SE8

S3

Calm

S6

W3

SW13 G20

SW16 G28

SW23 G33

SW27 G40

SW22 G28

SW26 G42

SW21 G31

SW16 G30

SW17 G29

SW18 G24

SW17 G26

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W14 G24

W12 G20

SW13 G23

W11 G20

W16 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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