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FXUS63 KMKX 282051 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 251 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Winds have shifted to become southwesterly across much of the area, with gustier conditions expected to develop overnight tonight and allow temperatures to begin to rise before the sun does. With temperatures in southwestern Wisconsin and portions of south-central Wisconsin struggling to get into the 20s today, these areas stand the best shot to see lows in the upper teens, while the remaining regions dip closer to 20 degrees. High-level clouds moving into the area along the southern side of an approaching shortwave may prevent some diurnal cooling, but should be high enough to allow for rapid cooling during the early evening hours. Cloud cover will persist through the overnight hours.

Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds continue through Wednesday, with gusts diminishing into Wednesday night as the parent shortwave propagates eastward out of the Great Lakes region.
Clouds will gradually decrease Wednesday, with some WAA aloft allowing for increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Expect high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees on Wednesday, with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees Wednesday night.

MH

LONG TERM
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

Shortwaves and slowly building upper level ridging in the Great Plains are the main concerns at play in the long range forecast.
Generally cold air advective pattern exists aloft through much of the long range with southern Wisconsin along the southern side of large scale troughing centered over the Hudson Bay. That being said, multiple embedded shortwaves propagating through the flow will result in surface WAA with southwesterly winds ahead of each system. A few chances for snowfall and rain showers exist with these shortwaves, although exact precipitation type is in question for any specific time period due to a lack of confidence in timing and placement. In general, expecting slight chances (15-30%) for a mixture of rain and snow showers with temperatures around normal Thursday through the weekend. A more significant system may deepen across the Great Lakes on Tuesday, which could lead to more widespread cold air and wintry precipitation before the system exits to the east.

MH

AVIATION
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

High level clouds have moved into southern Wisconsin, and are expected to linger throughout the night. Some lowering of cloud bases is possible going into the late overnight hours and Wednesday morning, although VFR conditions are expected to continue. MVFR conditions may occur near Lake Michigan from Milwaukee northward on Wednesday morning.

Low level wind shear is the main concern overnight, as southwesterly winds at the surface quickly increase to more than 40 kt just above the surface layer. This concern will diminish into Wednesday morning as surface winds increase and the main low pressure system slides eastward out of the region. Winds will remain gusty into Wednesday afternoon before shifting to become westerly and diminishing. Lighter southwesterly winds are then expected Wednesday night.

MH

MARINE
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Southwesterly winds will continue as high pressure remains over the Tennessee Valley and low pressure approaches northwestern Ontario. As low pressure moves through Ontario overnight, expect winds to increase to gust to 25 to 30 kt. A few gale force gusts near 35 kt are possible, but not expected to be widespread. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening through midday Wednesday for these gusts. Winds will diminish gradually into midday Wednesday, but will remain breezy through Wednesday night.
Thursday, westerly to northwesterly flow will develop, with breezy conditions across the southern half of the lake. Winds will then become northerly and diminish quickly into Thursday night.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM Tuesday to noon Wednesday.

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