Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naples, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
350 PM Update:

After this morning's widespread showers and thunderstorms, the atmosphere has had a difficult time destabilizing, despite some breaks of sunshine this afternoon. The majority of the convection is located well south of the area (mainly across Central PA to the Mid-Atlantic coast). There is still some elevated instability across the area, but with mid-level dry air inhibiting convective initiation, coverage of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening is not expected to be widespread and the threat for severe thunderstorms is lowering, but not totally gone.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue (at least in the evening) with some elevated instability present. However, lapse rates will be weakening, which will limit any severe thunderstorm potential. Coverage of showers will likely diminish towards the second half of the night. It will remain mild and humid with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

While there is still a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, the overall potential is decreasing and therefore most of our region is now in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms, rather than a "Slight Risk." This is due to relatively poor instability and lapse rates. There will be slightly higher lapse rates across our far eastern areas (Catskills-Mohawk Valley), so this is where the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be. That being said, it is looking more likely that most of the severe thunderstorms will be located well north and east of our area, more across New England. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Saturday with highs in the lower 70s to near 80.

Flow becomes more westerly behind the cold front Saturday night, which will result in some wrap-around/cold air advection showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, it will become much cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
230 PM Update...

Unsettled conditions will continue on Sunday with scattered showers as upper level low slowly exits to the northeast. Cool northwest flow on the backside of the low will make for a chilly and blustery day for mid May, with highs on Sunday only in the mid 50s to low 60s. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward, however, ridging ridging aloft will also be building in, so the showers will be coming to an end.

Lows on Sunday night will be in the low 40s for most of the region and a few of the coldest spots may drop into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
230 PM Update...

Dry but cool conditions are in store for next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, and cool northwest flow remains overhead. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as with a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in.
Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper level low will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday with a surface low developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. It is interesting that the GFS is showing T850 below 0C Wednesday night and T850 below -2C Thursday night into Friday. Still a long ways out, but most of the models and ensembles are in agreement for another cold upper low for the end of the long term period, so at least expecting above average precipitation and below average temperatures as we head into Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, which may result in brief MVFR restrictions. If a heavier shower/thunderstorm moves right over a terminal, brief IFR restrictions cannot be ruled out, but confidence was not high enough to include IFR restrictions at this time.

Conditions are expected to return to VFR tonight and remain that way through most of the rest of the current TAF period (at least through 18Z Saturday). Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday morning into the afternoon, but confidence was not high enough at this time to include thunder in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Sunday...Scattered rain showers possible, especially at the Central NY terminals, which may result in occasional restrictions.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely with rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.