Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 082058 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 358 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weakening cold front over southern Ontario will stall north of the lake overnight as low pressure takes shape over the central Plains. This deepening low pressure will move along the cold front and should track across southern Ontario. A strong cold front will move across the region Monday night. Colder air arrives in the wake of the front with an upper level trough lingering into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Increasing southerly winds will assist in increasing the return of low level moisture and bring warmer temperatures into the region. Low pressure will deepen as it moves across the central Mississippi River Valley. The increased warm advection ahead of the low will help to produce a period of rainfall that that move across the region from southwest to northeast last tonight into Monday. The heaviest rainfall will be Monday morning/afternoon. Increased cloud cover tonight and the warm advection will keep lows in the 40s. Highs Monday afternoon should reach into the lower to middle 50s. Winds will be gusty through the afternoon but should remain below advisory levels.

The gusty winds continue into the night but believe the periods of rain will keep the region from mixing too deep. However it will be something for later shift to monitor. Otherwise expect to see the showers decrease from west to east after midnight. Cant rule out a mix with some snow as the precipitation ends, but now accumulations expected. The cold front will cross the area overnight with lows falling into the 30s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Minor forecast changes with the short term period, with a slight downward trend in lake effect pops through the period. A cold front will be east of the forecast area at the onset of the period, as low pressure deepens northward through Quebec. The flow behind this front will be west to southwest Tuesday into Wednesday, with limited synoptic moisture outside of the 850mb layer. Instability looks to be marginal in this period as well, so backed down to low likely pops confined to northern Erie county. A secondary front will veer winds more northwest late Wednesday through Wednesday night, but very dry 850 mb air will quickly move southeast across the Great Lakes, which should curtail any appreciable accums across the local area. Ridging will build northeast into the region overnight, which will slowly bring an end to lake effect pops. Temperatures Tuesday will remain steady or fall behind the front, with low 30s by the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s, with the current forecast colder than guidance. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure will build east of the region Thursday, with a period of prolonged Gulf return/WAA into the weekend. Moisture return increases Saturday/Sunday, with a southern stream wave lifting across the northeast CONUS and a northern stream wave moving into the Great Lakes bringing increase pop chances, although synoptic details lead to lower confidence at this point. Highs in the low 30s Thursday will warm into the 40s for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/. Low level moisture is increasing from south to north today with increasing low end VFR cloud cover. Expect these clouds to expand in coverage and attempt to lower overnight. Low pressure will deepen as it moves across the central Mississippi River Valley. The increased warm advection ahead of the low will help to produce a period of rainfall that that move across the region from southwest to northeast last tonight into Monday. Expect to see some MVFR ceiling develop as the showers persist and winds shift away from the downsloping trajectories across the east.

Winds remain gusty from the south through the night, especially in the favored downsloping areas. Winds increase from the southwest by Monday afternoon with gusts 20 to 32 knots possible.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday in rain. Non-VFR lingering across NE OH/NW PA Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with lake effect snow.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory continues offshore of Erie PA with south winds around 20 kts becoming more southwesterly into the evening. The advisory may need to be cancelled early if trend continue, but will leave it as is for now. Winds will generally stay out of the south to southwest through Monday around 15-20 kts. A cold front crossing the lake Monday night into Tuesday will likely prompt another Small Craft Advisory as winds become westerly 20-25 kts. Winds decrease slightly Tuesday night but ramp up again Wednesday into Wednesday night, as another front crosses the lake. Winds become northwest behind this front into Thursday, with a brief period of 25-30 kts possible Wednesday night. Winds subside Thursday into Friday with high pressure building across the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ149.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . MM SHORT TERM . Greenawalt LONG TERM . Greenawalt AVIATION . MM MARINE . Greenawalt

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	56 mi	81 min	S 8 G 13	52°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	61 mi	51 min	S 15 G 24	50°F	37°F		1015.9 hPa (-1.4)	40°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH	66 mi	58 min	S 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	47°F	37°F	71%	1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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