Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:21PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:23 PM EDT (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:01PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:201908210230;;946053 Fzus61 Kcle 202005 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 405 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure of 29.80 inches over the upper great lakes will swing southeast on Wednesday, pulling a cold front south across lake erie Wednesday night. High pressure 30.20 inches will build southeast across the great lakes Thursday through Saturday. Lez061-165>169-210230- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 405 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 201958
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
358 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move southeast across the local area Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure will build southeast across
the area Thursday. High pressure will be centered over the local
area Friday night. Below average temperatures are expected for
the end of the week and weekend.

Near term through Wednesday night
Focus of the near term forecast is thunderstorm potential this
afternoon evening, as thunderstorms begin to develop in west
central ohio ahead of a long lived but somewhat decaying mcs
tracking through indiana. Surface destabilization has continued
through the afternoon across the local area, with 2-3k j kg
mlcape centered across western ohio. Mid level lapse rates
steepen ahead of the mcs, which will influence the area in the
next several hours. Shear remains marginal, with effective bulk
shear values of 20-25 kts across the area through early evening,
which should limit overall organization of storm activity.

However, dry air above 700mb and resultant dcape values of
1000-1300 j kg across the area, coupled with steep low level
lapse rates, will enhance the risk for damaging winds with the
stronger thunderstorms across the area. SPC has expanded the day
1 slight risk northward into the southwest part of the forecast
area, with a marginal risk for the rest of the area. The best
severe thunderstorm potential will be from 4 pm through 10 pm
across the area.

The associated MCV will slowly shear out weaken across the area
this evening and push east of the area by Wednesday morning.

Precip chances will be on the downtrend after midnight, but held
onto chance pops east slight chance pops elsewhere with the
disturbance across the area and ample boundary layer moisture
and perhaps residual outflow boundaries as a focus of surface
forcing. A synoptic cold front will slowly sink south towards
the area Wednesday and into the area Wednesday night. Surface
forcing is marginal with the boundary, and weak destabilization
may limit widespread precipitation development across the area
during the day, especially with the better mid level forcing
displaced north and southwest of the area. Have kept pops in the
chance range on Wednesday, with MLCAPE values up to 1000 j kg as
much drier air in the 850-700mb layer moves into the area from
the north. High temperatures rise into the mid upper 80s across
the area. Forecast pops diminish to slight chance range
Wednesday night as the front slides south across the area, with
the loss of daytime heating inhibiting much fuel for precip
development. Pops may linger across the south and southwest
parts of the forecast area after midnight into early Thursday
morning as upstream convectively induced disturbances propagate
eastward along the front, although much of the guidance favors
precip placement just south of the area.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Weak cold front will start off across our southern counties on
Thursday. A deepening upper level trough will push south across lake
michigan on Thursday, maintaining a southwest flow aloft. This may
delay the southward movement of the front and will hold onto a low
chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm across the south on
Thursday. A noticeable change in airmass will be felt with
highs dropping below normal into the 70s where they will remain
heading into the weekend. High pressure will strengthen across
the great lakes Thursday night into Friday, finally pushing the
front south of the area.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Upper level trough shifts east across new england allowing a ridge
to build overhead. Some weak troughing will also be in place across
the southeastern states with moisture focused across the tennessee
valley and mid-atlantic. The 12z GFS is the fastest in trying to
pull moisture back north into the area on Sunday but given the
strength of the surface high will continue with a dry forecast.

Finally by Monday the next upper trough will approach from the
northwest with low pops returning to our western counties
Monday, increasing and expanding Monday night into Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Showers and tsra are expected across the area this afternoon
through the evening, although coverage confidence at this
juncture only warrants tempo mention at any given TAF site.

Higher confidence in tsra impacts are at kfdy, kcle, kmfd and
kcak between 22z and 04z, with reductions to ifr possible in the
heaviest tsra. Shower tsra coverage will diminish after 06z,
with lingeringVFR clouds possible. Some reductions to MVFR
ceilings possible towards 12z in the wake of the precipitation,
but will improve toVFR towards the end of the period. Mainly
south to southwest winds will prevail through the period,
although a lake breeze early in the period may keep things more
variable at keri, and to a lesser extent kcle.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

Marine
Southerly flow of 10-15 knots will develop on lake erie tonight and
increase into the 10-20 knot range on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the north with the
passage of the front Wednesday night and a small craft advisory will
likely be needed east of the lake erie islands. Winds will drop off
fairly quickly on Thursday as high pressure expands south over the
great lakes region. Northeast to east winds of 5-15 knots will
maintain a little bit of a chop on lake erie on Friday and Saturday
with flow becoming more east southeast on Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi84 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 77°F1 ft1013 hPa (-1.8)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi54 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 80°F1013.2 hPa79°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi31 minESE 410.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE6S8S5SE7CalmS64S7S6SE3SE4E4
1 day agoS7S7S10
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W6S8E5S3CalmW3S3S4SW6W9W3SW8NW8N5N64N6N3CalmCalm
2 days agoS3S3S3S4S5SE3E43SE4SE5S6S8S9S10SW7SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.