Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:09PM Friday April 16, 2021 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:202104161415;;628943 Fzus61 Kcle 160754 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 354 Am Edt Fri Apr 16 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. Weak low pressure 29.70 inches north of lake ontario will weaken to a trough today. A weak ridge averaging 29.90 inches will build across the lake Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Monday and cross the lake on Tuesday. Lez061-167>169-161415- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border-geneva-on- the-lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 354 am edt Fri apr 16 2021
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early, then a slight chance of showers from late evening on. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..West winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 42.65, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 160751 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A series of troughs will rotate across the region through the weekend. Lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Erie will keep northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania cooler. The weather pattern into next week will continue to bring below average temperatures across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania is on the western edge of a large and slowly moving upper level low pressure system over the New England region. Scattered light lake effect rain showers continue this morning across mainly northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. Temperatures have stayed warm enough for these showers to remain rain showers. There still could be some wet snow flakes mixed in with the rain showers near the higher terrain of northwest Pennsylvania, but we are not expected much in the way of accumulations or impacts with temperatures above freezing this morning.

A northwest flow surface flow and mid level flow will continue over the eastern Great Lakes today with lake effect clouds along with passing showers and cooler temperatures. These lake effect showers will be confined towards far NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania today into tonight with a gradual decrease in coverage by tonight. The flow over the lake becomes weak by Saturday and the rain showers will end but some lake effect clouds will remain. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side and slightly below average going into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The short term forecast period will be fairly seasonable for mid- April with temperatures near normal in the 50s and 60s and small, intermittent chances for rain. The forecast area will find itself between upper troughs on Saturday night. A weak ridge attempts to develop across the region, but a piece of mid-level vorticity will enter from the south. This combination could allow for an isolated shower on Saturday night, but believe that the upper ridge and slight cold air advection will keep the area dry and have maintained a dry forecast. The ridge will flatten on Sunday and the vort max will pivot northward and will keep a small chance PoP for Sunday with this feature. A shortwave trough will undercut the region on Monday and drag this vort max south and sinking air will allow for a dry forecast for Monday. Return southwest flow will enter later on Monday and temperatures should rise slightly as the warmest day of the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term forecast period will be characterized by a strong cold front that will cross the area mid-week. The question is when the front will across cross the region. The end GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions this morning are about 12 hours apart, making the Tuesday forecast quite volatile. To trend slightly from the previous forecast, will bias slightly to the warmer ECMWF solution for Tuesday with the best precipitation chances for the second half of the day. The cold front will be through the area by Wednesday. The main question for Wednesday is if there will be any lingering precipitation. If so, imagine some cold rain or wet snow early in the day will give more of a mid-March feeling across the area. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 30s and only rise into the 40s during the day. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday night and will maintain a dry forecast for the end of the period. Temperatures will recover considerably on Thursday with warm air advection and southerly flow and 50s should return.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR to MVFR ceilings will be the general rule of thumb with this TAF update. Higher end MVFR ceilings expected for the western TAF sites between 2K and 3K feet eventually becoming VFR later in the TAF period. TAF sites across north central to NE Ohio into NW PA will likely have lower end MVFR between 1K to 2K feet through the morning hours with some slow improvement to ceilings late in the TAF period. Have a TEMPO group for possible IFR ceilings at ERI but not very confident on it. Guidance has been over done on the IFR potential and did not go that low for ERI or YNG. Winds will continue to remain from the west-northwest 7 to 11 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible closer to the lakeshore. Winds will decrease between 5 to 9 knots after 00z this evening. Scattered light lake effect showers will continue for at least the first half the TAF period for CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible in lingering rain and/or wet snow showers across far-northeast OH and northwest PA Friday night. Periods of rain showers may yield occasional non-VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE. Strong west to northwest flow across Lake Erie this morning will allow for higher waves to continue over the American waters of Lake Erie. Therefore, will maintain Small Craft Advisories as inherited for this threat. The lake will remain between a pair of low pressure systems through the weekend and light northerly flow should be expected on the lake, but not enough to present any significant wave issues. A weak ridge will cross the lake on Monday and winds will flip around to the southwest. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, increasing these winds before winds shift around to the west and then northwest with the frontal passage by Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145- 146.

SYNOPSIS . Griffin NEAR TERM . Griffin SHORT TERM . Sefcovic LONG TERM . Sefcovic AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 13 mi57 min NW 14 G 16 40°F 41°F1010.3 hPa (-0.4)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 56 mi87 min NW 13 G 15
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 61 mi57 min WNW 13 G 15 41°F 56°F1009.8 hPa (-0.5)41°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH66 mi64 minNW 89.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F89%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW7NW4NW3CalmW833SW6W9NW8
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--Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW8N7NE46NW8NW6NW7NW8NW9NW6N3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmW7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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