Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 12:09 AM EST (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 9:36PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1016 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night and Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri through Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will remain nearly stationary over the maritimes through Tue. High pres builds over ern canada Wed, then into nrn new eng Thu into Fri. Low pres passes southeast of the waters Sat and Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 280259 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 959 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Dry conditions with a mix of clouds from time to time through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region during Tuesday, bringing a batch of colder air. Ocean effect rain and snow showers may develop across the eastern waters late Tuesday and Tuesday night especially near eastern Cape Cod and Nantucket. Temperatures will be rather mild tonight, but will be much colder by Tuesday night after the front moves offshore. Dry conditions with closer to seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the work week. Still watching for the potential for a coastal storm which may impact the region for the weekend, though it remains far from a certainty.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

10 PM Update .

Increased cloud cover overnight. As with the previous update think it will be tough to shake the cloud cover. May be able to once a shortwave slides offshore after midnight. Have also increased overnight low temperatures a few degrees based on the cloudier forecast.

Previous discussion .

Infrared and nighttime microphysics RGB imagery shows considerable wrap-around moisture/clouds across much of Southern New England in cyclonic flow aloft. This cloudiness really extends northward across a good part of New England and into Quebec as well. While flow is downslope (WNW/NW), suspect that clouds will be tough to fully shake free from. Following upward (moister/more clouds) trends in the 18Z NAM and the past few runs of the RAP guidance, used those as a basis for increasing sky cover through overnight areawide, but particularly for northern and western MA. These results in skies from partly cloudy to overcast. May be some spotty sprinkles or flurries falling through the clouds at times, with some snow pellets/snow grains reported earlier in the Canton CT area; however, significant sub-cloud dry air with sizable dewpoint depressions will make any flurries or sprinkles the exception versus the rule.

I also warmed temperatures up some through early-overnight to account for the increased cloudiness and continued at least modest NW winds permitting limited radiational cooling. Most areas should be at or below freezing in the interior by pre-dawn, and just above that in RI and eastern MA/Cape Cod. If clouds linger, current lows in the mid-20s to low-mid 30s may be too cold and could need an adjustment upward in later forecasts.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Tuesday .

Another mainly dry cold front will shift S out of central New England during the day. However, short range models are indicating this front may stall close to or just into the Route 2 corridor of N Mass by late Tuesday morning. Even with the slow moving, albeit dry, front moving across, colder air will work in during the remainder of the day as H85 temps drop to -7C to -10C and H925 temps fall to -3C to -5C by late in the day.

Another question for the day will be whether a band of ocean effect precip develops as winds veer to N-NW during the afternoon across portions of the mid and outer Cape as well as Nantucket. Some question amongst the hi res model suite as to where the band positions itself as it develops late in the day.

At this point, looks like the band will start off as rain during the afternoon as temps are forecast in the upper 30s at around 18Z-19Z. Temps should fall to the mid 30s by 00Z.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies to start, but clouds will work southward as the front moves across. Also, as the winds become northerly, will see the most clouds develop across the eastern waters, which will move across the Cape and islands during the afternoon.

Overall, expect temps to top off several degrees cooler than today, ranging from the 30s across the higher terrain to around 40 elsewhere, but readings will start to fall after 18Z as the colder air moves southward.

Tuesday night .

As the colder air works across the region Tuesday night, with H85 readings dropping to -6C to -9C by around 09Z, the coldest temps will lie across E Mass as well as the Cape and islands. With these cold temps and the northerly wind trajectory, will see the ocean effect rain quickly change to snow. Current forecast suggests this should occur by around 02Z and last through most of the night before tapering off during the pre dawn hours. QPF amounts should be around 0.1 inches, highest across the outer arm of the Cape. Based on this, could see some light snow accumulations, possibly up to an inch.

Clouds will linger across central and eastern areas as well as the E slopes of the Berkshires, but could see partly cloudy conditions from N central Mass through the CT valley into N CT.

Expect lows in the mid teens to around 20 across the higher terrain to near 30 across outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. These readings, while still around 5 degrees above normal, will run a good 5 to 7 degrees below tonight's lows. With the northerly winds at around 10 mph, except up to 15 mph or so across the Cape and islands, wind chill values will drop to the single digits across the higher terrain to the teens to around 20 elsewhere toward daybreak.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry conditions with seasonal to slightly above normal temps through Fri.

* Still monitoring for a potential storm next weekend, but uncertainty remains high

Details .

Tranquil stretch of weather for the rest of the workweek as ridging both at surface and aloft builds across Southern New England. A weak shortwave trough will dig southward from eastern Quebec through much of New England during the latter part of Wednesday; though it will be a dry passage and its only real influence will be to induce a shot of cooler air (925 mb temps -8 to -11C per ECMWF, not exactly cold but a colder airmass than seen recently) for Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then shifts off the coast later Thursday, affording more of a milder southerly flow Thursday night into Friday.

Overall looking for seasonable temperatures with good diurnal ranges, with mostly sunny skies during the day and clear/calm nights. Highs in the mid-upper 30s for Wednesday, with the coldest day being on Thursday with the cooler thermal profiles (low to mid- 30s); warming back into the mid 30s to lower 40s for Friday. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights into the teens to lower 20s; while lows Friday night in the mid 20s to near freezing.

Saturday into Sunday:

Still a considerable degree of uncertainty on the forecast for the weekend, as models continue to simulate a coastal low pressure near the Carolinas on Saturday. While today's guidance has shown some tendency for a south/east-of-the-benchmark track, the exact track and resulting impacts remains uncertain.

Phasing of trough energy in the northern stream (digging south from the Canadian Prairies) and southern stream (South Texas into the Gulf Coast states) will prove critical in determining how close to Southern New England this potential storm system may get. Today's deterministic model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF indicate this phasing occurs late, with resulting deepening occurring south and east of the 40N/70W benchmark. These more offshore solutions have some support (a loose majority) from their respective ensemble members (EPS, GEFS). This would verbatim bring a glancing blow to the east and southeast coasts with little if any QPF in the interior, instead supporting a colder/largely dry northwest flow. Only the Canadian GEM brings a larger extent of the precip shield back far enough west to permit some impacts across a larger spatial area later Saturday into Sunday (on the western end of the guidance). While today's guidance indicates a more offshore track, there does remain a number of members in the 12z GEFS and 12z EPS that are closer to the benchmark; given this and the evolution of this potential system hinging on aforementioned phasing, it still is too early to lock into any solution. Lack of antecedent colder air also opens the door for continued questions on p-type.

Given the above, and that were are still a good 6 days out with guidance highly probable to change in subsequent days, think it is prudent to side the official forecast fairly close to continuity, with maybe a slight decrease in PoP in the interior given the SE track. Chances for snow/rain are thus indicated for all locations. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows in the 20s.

Monday:

Some uncertainty exists on Monday depending on how weekend developments transpire. Most guidance indicates dry conditions under high pressure, with temperatures remaining near to slightly above seasonal normals. Were any snowpack to be around, again contingent on what may happen over the weekend - could see some pretty chilly overnight lows. Stuck more closely to a guidance blend for this period.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Short Term . High confidence.

Rest of Tonight:

Leftover lower-level moisture looks to be tough to fully scour out, resulting in SCT- OVC VFR ceilings (bases 040-060) the rule for tonight. Greatest coverage furthest north and west. Winds WNW-NW around 6-12 kt.

Tuesday .

VFR most areas. May see MVFR CIGS develop across the E slopes of the Berkshires by midday as well as move into portions of E coastal Mass. Isold -SHSN possible across higher terrain of NW Mass, and SCT -SHRA across the outer Cape. N-NW winds 10-15 kt, highest along the E coast.

Tuesday night .

VFR most areas. MVFR CIGS across E slopes of the Berkshires and E coastal Mass. MVFR VSBYS in mixed SHRA/SHSN through 03Z- 04Z, changing over to -SHSN across the mid and outer Cape terminals which should end by around 10Z.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance SHSN.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ . High confidence.

Through 00Z . W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Dry conditions. Seas 4 to 6 ft on the open waters. Good visibility.

Tonight . NW winds 15-20 kt early, diminishing to around 10 kt by around midnight. Seas up to 4 to 6 ft on the outer waters then subsiding after midnight. Dry weather and good visibility.

Tuesday . N-NW winds 10-15 kt. Scattered rain showers during the afternoon across the eastern waters from Nantucket to Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Mainly dry elsewhere. Seas lingering at around 5 ft E and S of Cape Cod, otherwise 4 ft or less. Dry weather and good visibility.

Tuesday Night . N-NW winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern waters. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered rain showers early, changing to snow showers across the eastern waters from east of Boston Harbor to near and east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Mainly good visibility, except 1 to 3 nm in vicinity of snow showers.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Loconto/EVT NEAR TERM . BL/Loconto SHORT TERM . EVT LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . BL/Loconto MARINE . BL/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi126 min NW 14 G 16 40°F 40°F2 ft1000.5 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi70 min WNW 12 G 14 39°F 1001.9 hPa (+0.7)32°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi80 min WNW 14 G 16 41°F 43°F2 ft1002.2 hPa (+0.3)32°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi70 min 41°F 37°F1002.2 hPa (+0.4)
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi85 min Calm 36°F 1003 hPa30°F
CMLN3 28 mi186 min WNW 15 37°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi62 min 44°F4 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi126 min WNW 14 G 16 3 ft1001.7 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi70 min 38°F 41°F1002.3 hPa (+0.7)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi70 min W 1.9 38°F 28°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi80 min WNW 18 G 23 41°F 3 ft1001.9 hPa (+0.0)29°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi77 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%1002.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi76 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1003.5 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi76 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast42°F27°F55%1003.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE3NE5NE5NE3NE5NE5E5NE63E5NE5E5E5E9E11E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     8.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:29 PM EST     8.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.28.187.15.53.6210.81.63.45.77.68.78.77.96.34.32.30.80.20.51.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:44 AM EST     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.20.3-0.6-1.1-1.1-1-0.9-0.40.411.21.51.30.5-0.4-1-1.2-1.1-1-0.70.10.91.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.