Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday August 9, 2020 8:17 AM EDT (12:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:00PMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue and Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night through Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds across the waters today and early in the week. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday into Friday morning bringing scattered showers and Thunderstorms. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 091117 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 717 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure settles south of New England, bringing a warming flow of air for the coming week. Expect mainly rain-free weather, but with an isolated shower or storm possible this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Very warm to hot weather with uncomfortable humidity levels for much of the upcoming work week. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 7 AM Update:

Starting this Sunday morning a bit more humid than compared to yesterday (dewpoints mainly in the mid/upper 60s), and this added moisture and light winds has allowed for stratus to develop even well inland. HREF appears to have the best handle on sky cover trends and expecting a decrease in low-cloud coverage by mid-morning.

By afternoon, strong heating should allow for cumulus development near the Berkshires/western CT. Instability values vary across models but think the NAM's CAPE values (highest of all, around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE) are being inflated too high by high dewpoints. A lot of dry mid-level air out there as well and mixing near that depth should cause dewpoints to plummet back to more comfortable levels. As reflected in loose consensus in recent CAMs output, expecting only isolated t-storm coverage today between 18-22z from the Berkshires/Hartford County area, moving east into northeast CT/central MA- Metrowest Boston and northern RI. Not expecting any strong storms this afternoon, with preference toward lower- instability guidance as dewpoints mix out. Many areas should stay dry today.

A very warm day ahead for Southern New England with many areas in the upper 80s to low 90s away from the coast (upper 70s to mid 80s near the coast). Boston's high is a tougher call because of the potential for a sea- breeze in a weak pressure pattern to set in around late morning/noontime. If it occurs (HRRR and the RAP are most bullish on thinking so), it may take until late in the day until SWlys can push temps quickly into the upper 80s.

Previous discussion .

High pressure shifts south of New England, bringing a southwest flow of air to the region. This brings warming temperatures aloft compared with yesterday.

Early morning stratus along the South Coast extends across RI and Eastern CT. Subsidence from the high pressure, and the daytime solar heating, should combine to burn off the clouds. The daytime heating will establish a mixed layer reaching to near 800 mb, where temperatures will be 11-12C, equiv to 16-17C at 850 mb. Thus, expect high sfc temps to reach the upper 80s to around 90, with heat index values in the upper 80s.

Cross-sections show a moist layer between 850-mb and 750-mb. As mixing reaches into this layer, expect some daytime cloud to develop. Cross-sections also show enough drier air above the moist layer to limit the growth of those clouds. That should mean a mostly sunny day without convection.

However, a shortwave moves through the upper flow today, crossing Northern New England. Convective indices do show some potential for showers. CAPE of 400-600 J/Kg develops this afternoon, and the Lifted Index is minus 1 to minus 2. This could support development of showers, but values are rather low to forecast showers. Will go with a mostly sunny day, but with 15-20 percent POPs . slight chance.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Tonight .

Shortwave moves off to the east while high pressure remains offshore to the south. Expect a rain-free night with fog and low clouds developing along the southern coast and Islands. With dew points climbing to 65-70, expect min temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Monday .

High pressure remains offshore with a southwest flow across New England. Mixing again reaches to at least 850-mb with some potential for 800-mb. Temps at these levels will support max sfc temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will reach the lower 90s.

Monday will be another day like today, with subsidence and a limited layer of moist air at the top of the mixed layer and dry air above. There is potential for convective cloud development, but limited moisture for showers/storms. As with the forecast for today, will show slight chance pops for a shower/thunderstorm.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Very warm to hot weather with uncomfortable humidity levels for much of the workweek. Heat Advisories may be needed. Potential heat wave in some locations.

* Wet/unsettled Wed thru Fri as stalling cold front offers opportunites for showers/t-storms. Signals for possibly locally heavy rain, though details on when and where are still uncertain.

Details .

Heat and humidity will continue to be a focal point in the early parts of the forecast period (at least Tues, but potentially Wed and/or Thurs). A slow-moving cold front will be trudging east- southeast toward Southern New England around late Wed or Thurs. While Tues should be the hottest of the period both in terms of more sun exposure and higher air temps, Wed into Thurs should feature somewhat lower high temperatures with more clouds and rain around. Offsetting that "cooldown" will be that the dewpoints will be at their highest, so we may still have a consideration for Heat Advisories even into Thurs. Current forecast calls for mid to upper 90s heat indices both Tues and Wed, though exact values will depend on temps and dewpoints. Possible that some areas may meet heat wave criteria, though as we move toward late week it's more uncertain on occurrence/coverage of 90 degree air temps due to greater clouds/rain chances.

By late week, while we'll still be dealing with high humidity levels, better chances for thunderstorms then become apparent. A cold front will interact with the very moist air mass (PWATs 1.6- 1.8", about 150% of normal and about a 1.5 sigma anomaly per ECMWF ensemble mean) and fairly weak/modest instability. This will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms Wed into Thurs, lingering into Fri as well. Around Thurs, the surface front becomes parallel to fairly modest WSW mid-level flow, downstream of a slow- moving mid- level trough over the Ohio Valley. In that regime, there are differences in the models as far as when the front may slip southward into the mid-Atlantic states, with areas south of the stalling front being favored for opportunities for showers/t-storms. The above- described pattern is depicted in several of the key models (ECMWF/GFS) and has a similar look to the Maddox synoptic heavy rain pattern to be centered either somewhere in Southern New England or just south into the mid- Atlantic region. The ECMWF is quicker to shift the front southward into the mid-Atlantic than the GFS, and thinking this is due to the ECMWF showing more southward intrusion to a stronger upper low/trough over Quebec and northern ME than the GFS depicts. So still some significant uncertainty in the details, but if the front were to become hung up over Southern New England the risk for some footprints of localized heavy rain/possibly hydro would stand to increase. To that end, ECMWF ensemble probs of 24-hr QPF > 0.50" are around 50 percent on Thurs south of the Mass Pike, with some lower percentages for over an inch of QPF in 24 hrs mainly in CT and central RI. Will use NBM PoPs for now, though given uncertainty will stop just short at Likely levels for Wed into Fri until there's greater agreement on frontal position.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

Patchy IFR-LIFR stratus even well inland expected to burn off in all areas by 14z. Looking at VFR conditions, though isolated TSRA may develop in the heat of the day between 18-22z, mainly from BAF-CEF to ORH-PVD-BED. Will carry VCSH for now for these airports but most areas to stay dry.

Mainly SW/WSW winds 4-8 kt. Weak pressure pattern could force BOS into a sea-breeze around late-morning before flipping back to SW late in the day (after 20z).

Tonight . High confidence

VFR with light SW winds. Stratus/fog develop again along the coast.

Monday .

VFR with light southwest winds. Stratus/fog burn off in the morning. Mainly rain-free, but again a chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm in the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Possible sea-breeze starting around 16z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. Today through Monday .

Fog and low clouds linger early morning, but burn off by midday.

High pressure builds south of the waters today, bringing a southwest flow to the waters. Quiet weather with winds and seas below Small Craft levels. Seas 4 feet or less.

Fog/low clouds again possible tonight with vsbys 1 to 3 nm.

Monday will be similar to today with fog/low clouds burning off during the morning and southwest winds below Small Craft thresholds. Seas 4 feet or less.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi133 min WSW 9.7 G 12 67°F 1 ft1017.3 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi77 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 67°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.3)67°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi27 min S 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 65°F1 ft1018.5 hPa (+0.3)66°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi47 min 73°F 66°F1018.6 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi92 min SW 1.9 66°F 1019 hPa66°F
44073 28 mi73 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 64°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi72 min 64°F2 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi73 min W 5.8 G 5.8 2 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi47 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 64°F1018.9 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi77 min SW 1 66°F 63°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi27 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 1 ft1019.9 hPa (+0.4)64°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi24 minVar 510.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1018.6 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi23 minWSW 710.00 miFair72°F68°F87%1019.8 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi23 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N3NW4SE85NE5SE9SE10SE10SE8SE7SE5SE5SE4S4S4SW5SW4SW6SW5SW5SW3SW45
1 day agoNE4NE6E4NE5E5SE9E85E5E4SE7SE4SE5SE5CalmE3CalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW66SW10
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W7W10W7W6S8S8E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmNE4N4CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
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Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT     8.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     8.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.15.178.28.47.86.54.72.91.50.91.12.34.16.27.78.38.17.15.53.82.31.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:40 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.31.30.7-0.2-0.8-1.1-1-0.9-0.7-0.10.71.11.31.41.10.2-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.