Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 5:38PM Thursday March 4, 2021 5:31 PM EST (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 416 Pm Est Thu Mar 4 2021
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Friday...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray likely.
Sat..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night through Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon through Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Pm Est Thu Mar 4 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Expect areas of light freezing spray on the waters tonight and Friday. High pressure builds over the waters and maintains dry weather from the weekend through the first half of next week. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 042033 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 333 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS.

A dry weather pattern will persist well into next week. Temperatures will be below normal into the weekend, and moderate beginning Monday. By mid week, temperatures will be above normal, making it feel more like spring.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Dry, chilly and a little breezy will describe the conditions expected tonight. Strato-cu across the area is already starting to dissipate as drier air is being advected in from the north and we are losing daytime heating. Kept with a blend of guidance for the temperatures, so looking at generally 10-20 degrees in most areas. Expecting the wind to continue overnight, so not really a radiational cooling situation where those normally cold spots get very cold compared to adjacent neighbors. BUFKIT based soundings show a relatively mixed atmosphere up to 2000-3000ft, this is partially due to the cold air advection and a decent pressure gradient between high pressure well to our west and a nearly stationary large low pressure over Labrador. With the good mixing, we should see gusts of 20 to perhaps 25mph in most areas overnight. Wind Chill/Apparent Temperature values will drop to the -5F (higher terrain locations) to +10F closer to the coast. Not close to our wind chill advisory criteria, but certainly worthy of dressing warmly if outside overnight and early Friday morning. The evening does start out generally clear, but looking upstream (which in this case is Quebec), am expecting some patches of mid level clouds to float overhead after midnight.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

If you liked today, you'll like tomorrow. If you didn't like today, then . remember, we are in messaging, not production. That big storm well to our northeast will still be in about the same place. Fairly steep pressure gradient still across our region, so breezy conditions will continue. With the northwest flow, chilly temperatures will prevail. 925mb temperatures will be in the -8C to - 10C range, which supports surface high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the northwest flow, downsloping and no snow across much of the eastern third of the area and sunshine, coastal RI and southeast MA could "over achieve" with a few spots possibly 35-38F. I did add in some NBM 95th percentile temperatures to lean more on the warmer side. Gusty winds over 20 mph should still be common throughout the day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights

* The weekend will be dry and cold. Below average temperatures expected through Sunday. More seasonable temperatures on Monday.

* Little to no chance of precipitation over the forecast period.

* Warm-up on the way starting next Tuesday and extending late into the work week. 50s and even 60s are not out of the question for Wednesday.

Saturday and Sunday .

With an upper level low still in place over Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes, several shortwaves will bring a series of cold shots to New England this weekend. These cold spells are not expected to be accompanied by any significant precipitation, but will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees colder than average.

The upper level low is in sync with a deep trough that extends the 540mb isobar well into the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday. Gusty, northwest flow associated with this trough will keep wind chills in the 10s and 20s, especially Saturday, before the winds relent a bit on Sunday. High temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday are expected to range from the 20s north and west of our metropolitan areas to the mid 30s south and east, extending across the Cape and Islands. Guidance has come into agreement that this cold shot will extend through the weekend before relinquishing its grip early next week.

On Saturday night, conditions are ripe for radiational cooling with weakening winds, clear skies, and a remaining snowpack north and west of the I-95 corridor. To account for this low temperatures on Saturday night were lowered using CONSMOS guidance.

The deep southern extension of the trough will keep us dry through the weekend.

Monday thru Wednesday .

On Monday, the ridge that has been so dominant over the western US begins to nudge into our area. Temperatures begin to level out around average, in the upper 30s and low 40s, before the primary wind direction switches from west/northwest to southwest, ushering in more spring-like temperatures for mid-week. High pressure settles over New England with this ridge.

Temperatures are likely to top out in the 50s on Tuesday with the potential to reach 60 in several locations away from the immediate coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island on Wednesday. The Cape and Islands will remain in the 40s to near 50 as SSTs are still hovering around 40 degrees. Warm spring patterns that occur pre-"green up" have a tendency to overperform compared to the highs forecasted by guidance. This tendency is supported by both the NAEFS and ENS Situational Ensemble Tables such that all levels rise above the 90th and 97.5th percentiles on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. CPC guidance also shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures for the five day period of Mar 9-13th. Given both our seasonal knowledge, and the strong probabilistic trends in guidance, high temperatures were increased on Tuesday and Wednesday using a blend of the GFS and NBM 90th percentile values. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday into Wednesday were adjusted using the NBM 75th percentile guidance.

There is a slight chance of precipitation on Tuesday as a shortwave passes to our north, however given that this potential is five days out, it is too soon to determine what localities, if any, will see a brief passing shower. Otherwise, next week looks dry.

Guidance is narrowing in on a cold front/chance for more significant precipitation sometime late next week. More attention will need to be paid to this system as Thurs/Fri enter our forecast period as the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian models all differ on exact timing.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z UPDATE .

overall high confidence in the forecast.

VFR area wide. Cloud deck is primarily between 4000-5000ft. A spot flurry or two across western MA, perhaps reaching BAF or ORH, but no impact to visibility. Clouds should start to dissipate after 22z, with only SCT conditions expected for the overnight hours. VFR will continue all day Friday as well, with only SCT clouds.

Gusty northwest winds will continue the rest of the day, much of the overnight and thru at least 18z Friday. Generally looking at gusts in the 20-25kt range. Can't rule out a spot 30kt gust later this afternoon and early evening. May see the gusts diminishing some overnight, especially after 04z at many locations but still running around 15kt. ORH, with it's higher elevation exposure, should continue to gust 25kt+ all night and into Friday.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

MARINE.

Strong and gusty winds and rough seas are expected across most of the coastal waters overnight, Friday and into Friday night. A variety of gale warnings and small craft advisories will remain posted. There should be surge in winds later this evening and early overnight, especially across the eastern waters. Gale force wind gusts - perhaps briefly nearing 40 kts - are expected in that area, with 25 to 30 kt gusts common elsewhere. Seas offshore will build to 5 to 7 feet. The other concern for tonight will be the potential for freezing spray. With temperatures generally in the 20s across the waters the strong winds and blowing spray should result in at least some light ice accumulations. Have continued the mention of that threat in the forecast, but shouldn't be significant enough for the need to raise freezing spray headlines. Winds and seas will slowly start to diminish on Friday. Though gale warnings may not be needed by tomorrow morning, small craft advisory level conditions will continue Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Freezing spray.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-255- 256. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-251-254.

SYNOPSIS . KS/Nash NEAR TERM . Nash SHORT TERM . Nash LONG TERM . KS AVIATION . Nash MARINE . KS/Nash


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi87 min WNW 19 G 25 37°F 3 ft1000.7 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi31 min WNW 27 G 29 34°F 1001.2 hPa (-0.3)3°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi31 min WNW 21 G 27 36°F 40°F1003.1 hPa (-0.4)18°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi49 min 37°F 37°F1002.3 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi106 min W 16 35°F 1002 hPa13°F
44073 28 mi87 min W 21 G 27 37°F 40°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi35 min 42°F6 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi87 min WNW 23 G 33 34°F 4 ft999.6 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi43 min WNW 16 G 28 32°F 39°F1001.1 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi91 min W 8 34°F 5°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi31 min W 21 G 25 36°F 41°F1001.4 hPa (+0.0)19°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi38 minWNW 11 G 2510.00 miFair36°F6°F28%1002.2 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi37 minW 15 G 2110.00 miFair34°F7°F32%1003.7 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi37 minWNW 17 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds38°F7°F27%1003.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW5W5W7W4NW4NW6NW5CalmNW4N5CalmNW3NW5NW8NW16
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1 day agoNW12
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W10CalmW5SW6SW8SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8SW8W8W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EST     9.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM EST     8.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.68.19.69.88.97.14.72.20.3-0.7-0.41.13.56.18.198.77.45.53.31.30.101.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:11 AM EST     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:47 PM EST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EST     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.40.7-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.4-1-0.7-00.81.31.41.410.1-0.8-1.3-1.3-1-0.6-0.20.6

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