Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night through Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pressure moves offshore tonight. A strong cold front will then cross the waters late Wednesday or early Wednesday night bringing showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Gale force nw wind gusts are likely behind this front Wednesday night into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will then pass south of the waters Friday and Saturday. A coastal storm moves up from texas, bringing rain and gusty winds Sunday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 210217 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1017 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS.

A few showers are possible tonight as a warm front lifts north. Then a strong cold front brings the threat for thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts Wednesday afternoon into evening. Windy and much cooler weather follows behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday, then a warming trend Friday and Saturday. A coastal storm may bring rain and coastal wind Sunday with improving conditions next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/.

10 PM Update .

Have reduced PoPs slightly across western areas based on the latest high resolution guidance. Have kept things slight chance to chance across western areas as the warm front is lifting through. The remainder of the forecast looks good, so have just brought things in line with the latest observations.

750 PM update .

Last of the diurnal showers has exited the region as of early this evening. Little change to forecast. Cloudiness will thicken in the west overnight and there could be a few light showers in northwestern zones late.

Discussion from 4 PM .

This evening, a positively tilted H5 trough rapidly intensifies and closes off over the Great Lakes. Attendant low pressure forms in the Central Appalachians and track northeastward across Pennsylvania. We are in the warm sector and southwest flow strengthens with a 40 kt low level jet beginning to overspread Southern New England. At the same time, a cold front will be sagging south and southeast across Upstate NY. This sets up an area of convergence across the Southern Greens/Northern Berkshires so expect the best chance for showers overnight to be across our Northwestern zones. CAM guidance depicts this well. Expect clouds to be on the increase, which will help keep temperatures milder, with lows generally in the mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/.

Wednesday .

* Have to watch for a line of strong thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon to early evening hours.

Strong mid-latitude cyclone tracks from the Pennsylvania towards interior New England. A warm front lifts northwards during the day and with PWATs rising to around 0.8 inches boosted by a strengthening low-level jet. This is around the 75th percentile according to SPC sounding climatology for our area. Nonetheless, much of the area should stay mostly dry except for a few showers and maybe an isolated heavy downpour with embedded thunder because the best dynamics and lift will be further west, closer to the upper level low. CAMs show a fine line crossing Southern New England roughly between 2PM and 10PM capable of locally damaging wind gusts. This cell mode makes sense given the linear forcing of the front. Our CWA is just outside SPC's area of marginal risk for severe weather. High-res guidance shows dew points rise into the 50s as 850mb winds crank to 40-50 kts. But there only appears to be a relatively short window where there are a few hundred joules of MLCAPE to tap into, with the better instability residing across the Mid Atlantic region. Nonetheless, it is possible to have locally damaging wind gusts as we could get a few strong storms, but generally remaining below severe criteria.

Wednesday night .

* Turning much colder and blustery following the passage of a strong cold front.

H5 low deepens to 520mb and goes negatively tilted. Much colder air pushes across the region as the line of showers and thunderstorms exit to the east. Strong surface pressure gradient sets up across the Northeast with attendant low pressure undergoing rapid cyclogenesis to sub 980 mb. With low level lapse rates steepening, it will be a blustery night. Cannot rule out a couple of snow showers across the high terrain of the Berkshires but the mid levels will be drying out quickly so not expecting meaningful precipitation.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Highlights

* Unseasonably cool on Thursday after the passage of a cold front. Breezy conditions expected.

* Gradual warming trend Friday and Saturday, with highs near 70 on Saturday.

* Coastal low to impact our region on Sunday and Monday. Looks like primary precip type will be rain.

Thursday .

Unseasonably cool air rushes in behind the cold front that passed through the region on Wednesday. The primary weather concern on Thursday remains strong winds that will mix down. Currently, 900 mb winds between 45 and 50 kts suggest that surface gusts could hover between 25 and 30 kts across our area. Temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s. Highest temperatures expected across SE MA, and RI, where they may climb into the mid 40s. Wind chills will keep the "real feel" in the 30s.

Skies gradually clear through the day, but gusty winds should limit the radiational cooling potential overnight; lows expected in the mid 30s to near 40 region-wide.

Friday and Saturday .

A gradual warming trend develops along a weak ridging pattern as high pressure builds into the region for Friday and Saturday. Westerly winds, becoming more southwesterly by Saturday, support good warm air advection for the first half of the weekend, as highs climb close to 60 on Friday and 70 on Saturday.

Gusty winds will stick around, especially on Friday, but will subside from their Thursday peak.

Sunday and Monday .

There is good model consensus on the development of a coastal low developing off of the mid-Atlantic coast and pushing into our region Sunday. At present, this system looks to bring rain to southern New England. The 12Z ECMWF solution is more in line with the GFS with 925 mb temperatures around +5C in the interior. However, toward evening, with 850 mb temps near 0C, there could be some flakes in the higher elevations of the Berkshires. The low begins to pull away during the day on Monday. High temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 expected. Both the GFS and ECMWF support 1-2" of QPF, however the distribution of where the heaviest rain will fall depends on the position of the low.

Strong winds may also be threat with this system, especially in eastern and southeastern coastal areas. In addition, tides will be astronomically higher Sunday and especially Monday. Depending on the location of the low pressure, there could be a couple of tidal cycles impacted, first with southeast to east flow, then with north or north-northwest flow. Right now, minor coastal flooding appears possible, but over the next few days we will be watching closely for any possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding.

Again, given the uncertainty of the storm track 5 days out, this system will need to be closely monitored. P-type, winds, QPF, and coastal flooding will depend on the storm track.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

2350Z update . High confidence.

Tonight..High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with a gradual increase in clouds, especially in western zones. Should see cloud bases generally between 5-10 kft. Scattered showers possible after midnight for far western areas. West to southwest winds still gusting to 20 kt in eastern areas . but will gradually diminish as decoupling occurs overnight. Then light winds shifting to the south.

Wednesday . High confidence in trends moderate in timing.

Conditions deteriorating from VFR to start to MVFR/IFR and maybe some localized LIFR as showers and thunderstorms move through. S winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds shifting to the SW/W across western areas late in the day as a cold front slides through.

Wednesday night . High confidence.

Mainly VFR, with isolated MVFR possible. Blustery NW winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.

MARINE.

750 PM update .

No changes to the forecast at this time.

* Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters for 35 to 40 kt gusts on Thursday.

Tonight . High Confidence

Southwest winds diminish and shift to a southerly direction. Waves 2-4 ft.

Wednesday . High confidence

Increasing southerly winds and gusts as the day progresses as another cold front moves in. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder later in the day.

Wednesday night . High confidence

Strong cold front pushes during the evening hours, with west winds increasing to 25-35 kt after midnight. Seas increasing to 6-9 ft.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Tides will be astronomically higher Sunday and especially Monday. Depending on the location of the low pressure, there could be a couple of tidal cycles impacted, first with southeast to east flow, then with north or north-northwest flow. Right now, minor coastal flooding appears possible, but over the next few days we will be watching closely for any possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . BL/Chai/KS/GAF NEAR TERM . BL/Chai/GAF SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . KS AVIATION . Chai/KS/GAF MARINE . Chai/KS/GAF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi77 min E 1.9 G 3.9 53°F 2 ft1012 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi81 min W 6 G 6 55°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.7)32°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi31 min S 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 46°F1 ft1012.9 hPa43°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi51 min 58°F 1012.3 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi96 min W 5.1 53°F 1013 hPa38°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi25 min 45°F2 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi77 min W 3.9 G 5.8 49°F 2 ft1011.6 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi51 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 51°F 48°F1012.8 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi81 min NW 1.9 52°F 37°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi28 minENE 310.00 miFair50°F39°F66%1012 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi27 minESE 310.00 miFair50°F38°F63%1013.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi27 minN 610.00 miFair57°F37°F47%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW4NW4W4N3CalmE4E12SE8SE11SE6SE5SE4CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4NW4CalmNW4NW4NW5NW6N3SW5NW7NW8NW6NW13SE10SE6SE7SE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     7.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.122.63.95.67.28.18.17.56.34.83.11.81.11.22.13.65.36.87.57.46.85.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:18 AM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:48 PM EDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.30.20.91.11.11.20.7-0.2-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.7-0.20.511.11.31.10.4-0.5-1-1.1

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