Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 10:01 PM   Moonset 6:28 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 250440 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1240 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure building in from the west will bring dry but cool weather through the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures moderate over the weekend with additional chances for precipitation.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE
A persistent/gusty northerly breeze across the southern part of the area in the Poughkeepsie vicinity has kept temperatures relatively warmer in the lower 40s, so have slowed the rate of cooling and raised min temperatures in this area.
Wind speeds should gradually decrease by early morning.
Otherwise, a cold night is in progress with temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the rest of the region.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1000]...A few clouds in southern areas continuing to exit. By daybreak, it should be clear in most areas. Gusty winds will diminish to light and temperatures should fall to around current forecasted levels. Just minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures through the night.

Temperatures will rapidly cool this evening and overnight within robust cold advection behind the frontal passage. High pressure continuing to build to the west will see the surface pressure gradient slacken locally, allowing winds to lessen overnight and setting the stage for efficient radiative cooling.
With surface dewpoints in the single digits and teens, overnight lows will dip well below normal into the upper 10s and 20s across the region, about 5-10 degrees above record low values for climate sites along the Hudson.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will remain overhead Thursday and Friday, while upper ridging approaches from the west, yielding dry weather, clear skies, and a slight warming trend through the period. Following a cold morning on Thursday, temperatures will rise to highs in the 40s in high terrain and 50s at lower elevations with light northwest winds, before falling to lows in the 20s for most and low 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley on Thursday night. On Friday, highs reach the 50s to low 60s with light south to southeast winds, then Friday night lows dip into the 30s across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Temperatures will trend above normal during the upcoming long term period thanks to strong upper level ridging becoming established across the Northeast and southwesterly winds advecting in a very warm air mass. In fact, the first 80 degree days for many locations looks to occur Monday and possibly Tuesday. As is typically this time of year, after this warm-up, an incoming cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night may result in some thunderstorms before we trend back down to more seasonably spring temperatures. Read on for details.

We begin the long term on Saturday with an amplified ridge axis and sfc warm front from western NY building eastward. The first half of Saturday looks dry as we remain mainly east of the ridge axis.
However, POPs trend upwards, especially west of the Hudson, through the day, as the ridge axis, increased mid-level moisture and surface warm front spill eastward. Increased southwesterly flow and warm air advection will allow temperatures to trend upwards compared to Thursday and Friday but the core of the warm air mass should remain displaced to our west, keeping highs around normal for late April.

Shower chances increase and become more widespread across the region Saturday afternoon into the evening as the front tracks towards New England. With the front mainly in or just east of western New England during the day on Sunday and a few weak shortwaves spilling overtop the ridge axis, we continue to message chance POPS north and west of the Capital District with slight chance POPS into western New England. Temperatures will trend warmer on Sunday as the front gradually shifts to our east. Expecting highs to eclipse 70 for many valley areas with mid to upper 60s in the hill towns and high terrain.

Expect a little taste of summer Monday and Tuesday as our ridge axis shifts further east into New England and strong southwesterly flow ushers in the true warm sector. With 850hPa isotherms rising +2 to +2.5 standard deviations above normal, confidence is increasing that many valley areas will record the first 80 degree day of the season (potentially both days). As ridging becomes re-established overhead, a few weak shortwaves still tracking within the fast flow aloft may result in some isolated to scattered showers/storms, especially during peak heating.

By Tuesday afternoon into especially Tuesday evening, ridging breaks down and increased height falls combined with an approaching cold front will increase chances for rain and even thunderstorms thanks to the very warm air mass and increased moisture ahead of the front.
With strong southwesterly flow aloft, some organized convection is possible. Will continue to monitor this potential over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A few intervals of clouds around 3000 feet at KPSF this evening.
Otherwise, high pressure builds into the region and VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through Thursday afternoon.

Gusty northwest to northeast winds at 10 to 15 Kt with gusts near 20 Kt will diminish through the night to 6 Kt or less.
Northwest to north winds at less than 10 Kt Thursday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
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Wed -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
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