Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
This morning a warm front is lifting across our region...now reaching the vicinity of Lake Ontario. Convection has been light upon the front, though expecting showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario region through the morning hours as a convective shortwave in addition to increase low level winds reaches our region.

Elsewhere activity will be isolated, with present instability behind the warm front allowing for a convective shower at any time through the morning.

A cold front will be bearing down upon our region later this morning, and lift ahead of this feature combined with the passage of a trough axis around a closed upper level low should produce enough lift that with increasing daytime instability showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous through the afternoon hours.

Instability is not great, likely to remain just under 1000 J/KG, but increasing 0-6km effective bulk wind shear values to 40 knots should allow thunderstorms to increase in strength. The most favorable areas for any stronger storms will be the Finger Lakes region and the eastern Lake Ontario region where a later frontal passage will allow for more instability...and with the low level wind field stronger of 40-45 knots any thunderstorm could produce gusty winds this afternoon.

Behind the cold front a developing lake breeze on a southwest wind will bring a period of dry weather with skies trying to clear across the metro Buffalo area later this afternoon. Winds may become breezy, with the southwest gusts into the 30 mph range for Buffalo and stretching out to Batavia. On the periphery of this lake breeze boundary additional showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will blossom...with this activity favored later this afternoon and early evening across Niagara County to the northern Genesee Valley...where any showers will wane.

While low, there will remain chances for showers across our region overnight as the main upper level low tracks over our region. As temperatures cool to near the dewpoints tonight patches of fog will likely form, especially across higher terrain and areas that received a decent downpour earlier in the day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An upper level closed low will start Sunday just to our east, with a cool, cyclonic flow of moist air bringing a not so great end to the weekend with showers Sunday and into Sunday evening...most plentiful and longest in duration across the eastern zones that will lie closer to the upper level low. Not much in the way of instability so will hold out the mention of thunder.

Steep low level lapse rates will aid in breezy conditions Sunday with northwest winds gusting into the 25 to 35 mph range across the region. Temperatures Sunday and Monday afternoons will be some 10 degrees below normal.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into our region Sunday night and Monday, with fresh Canadian air filtering across our region. As skies clear Monday night radiational cooling conditions will allow for temperatures to plummet, this under an axis of -1SD 850 hPa temperature and PWAT anomalies. While temperatures will drop down into the mid 30s to the lower 40s...the threat of frost may just depend upon whether the light northern breeze ends. If a gentle breeze continues through the night, frost risk will be lower.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Fair dry weather Tuesday as the narrow ridge of high pressure remains over the Lower Lakes. It will be a chilly start to the day though, with perhaps some frost in spots.

Unsettled weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with multiple shortwaves collecting to form another closed low over the Great Lakes, with cool showery weather developing Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For the 12Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions will continue for the next 9-15 hours, interrupted briefly by heavier downpours of rain from thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms this morning will clip the eastern Lake Ontario region, including KART.

This early morning activity will diminish some mid-morning, but is expected to re-intensify late morning and through the afternoon hours as a cold front sweeps across the region. The early afternoon passage of the front for WNY will limit the strength of thunderstorm activity, but for Rochester and Watertown additional daytime instability coupled with increasing wind shear aloft may allow for storms to strengthen with gusty winds.

Behind the cold front a developing lake breeze will bring a period of dry weather with skies trying to clear across KBUF this later afternoon hours. Winds may become breezy, with gusts into the lower 30 knots for KBUF. On the periphery of this lake breeze boundary additional showers and perhaps including a rumble of thunder will blossom...with this activity near the KIAG airfield. This convection will drift towards KROC this evening before fading.

Additionally behind the front and towards sunset ceiling heights will begin to lower...with MVFR heights becoming more common through the evening hours.

Tonight convection will quickly diminish with the loss of instability, but with the upper level low spinning overhead an isolated shower cannot be ruled out for any of the airfields.
Ceiling heights tonight will mainly range through the MVFR category, with IFR ceiling heights developing across the higher terrain of the southern Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly IFR/MVFR with scattered showers, greatest chances east of KROC.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Some restrictions possible with showers in the area.

MARINE
A cold front will pass over the eastern Great Lakes today, with a southwest and then tonight westerly flow increasing to small craft levels. Waves will increase, and remain above four feet on the Lakes through much of Sunday and Sunday evening with a now northwesterly flow.

Surface high pressure will nose southward across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night and into the start of the new work week with light winds and waves on the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ045.