Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Angola on the Lake, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:56PM Thursday July 9, 2020 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:01PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202007090915;;545318 Fzus51 Kbuf 090202 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1002 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-090915- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1002 Pm Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Overnight..South winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angola on the Lake, NY
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location: 42.69, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 090817 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 417 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Oppressive heat will be found across the majority of the region through Friday with apparent temperatures near 100F across the lake plains. While showers and storms will be few and far between during that time, they will become more widespread Friday through Saturday as a weak cool front slowly works into the region. Temperatures will be a little lower this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Temps in the 70s on the Lake Plains and mid/upper 60s across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario this morning. Patchy dense fog has formed in the valleys of the Southern Tier with occasional visibilities dropping down to a quarter of a mile.

The big story today will yet again be the oppressive heat with highs climbing a few degrees with low/mid 90s and heat indices in the 95F- 100F range. All Heat Advisories remain in place with the addition of Wyoming and Chautauqua county to the list. Otherwise, today should be the hottest day of this week with the upper ridge axis cresting across the eastern Great Lakes providing a largely dry day for most locations. Although, still can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the Southern Tier. However, with the ridge axis overhead and a mid level cap present it should limit most storm activity. Any storms that do form will likely have the potential to produce very localized heavy rainfall as flow through the column remains very weak.

Tonight, mild and humid conditions will continue with lows in the mid 70s across the Lake Plains with upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Friday, again another hot and humid day will be on tap. The only change will be an increase in showers and thunderstorm coverage as the ridge axis shifts east and upstream trough approaches the Lower Lakes. Otherwise, highs will once again topple the 90F degree mark for many locations with heat indices in the 95F-100F range.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Upper trough slowly pushing across the region Friday night and Saturday and bringing some much needed rainfall, as a fairly widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected, especially Saturday. Severe threat looks limited, but downpours and gusty winds possible with some of the storms. The heat, but not humidity will back off Saturday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.

A somewhat drier, more typical airmass arrives Saturday night into Sunday. Despite the drier airmass can not rule out some scattered diurnally driven convection Sunday, mainly inland from the lakes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Another shortwave, lower in amplitude will cross our region Monday. This shortwave will be reaching WNY early in the day, and the greatest chances for thunder will again be across eastern zones where additional daytime instability will occur.

Tuesday and Wednesday will become dry again behind the upper level shortwave, and increase in warmth as yet another plume of very warm air from the Plains begins to push eastward towards our region. Highs in the mid 80s Tuesday, will likely become lower 90s for the lake plain Wednesday.

Looking just outside of the scope of this forecast period at the second half of the week . there are deterministic models (ECMWF) that are strongly suggesting the presence of a 600dm ridge that could be centered just to our south. This is also being advertised by the NAEFS If this were to come to pass. then H85 temps of 21-23c would overspread the Lower Great Lakes. This would set the stage for ANOTHER heat wave . one that would shadow the current heat spell In other words. a more significant heat event.

Supporting another heat wave are temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook map includes the Great Lakes region in an area for EXCESSIVE heat during the July 15-21 period . and the corresponding 8-14 temp outlook has a 80 percent bullseye for above normal temps over the region.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions with generally light winds expected early this morning. Fog will lower VSBYs to IFR/LIFR levels, in the valleys of the Southern Tier where the fog could become deep enough to impact the KJHW site with MVFR to IFR conditions through 11z.

While there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region this afternoon, most of the area will be rain free.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday . Mainly VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

MARINE. Relatively light winds will continue on both Lakes Erie and Ontario through the rest of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds will generally be under 12 knots and waves under 2 feet. Strong differential heating will allow for local lake breezes to develop most afternoons with onshore wind developing.

CLIMATE. An extended period of heat will continue across our region through Friday, July 10th. Some daily records will be within reach for our 3 primary climate stations. Also, the longest streak of 90-degree days in Buffalo may be in jeopardy. Here are the current record maximums, and warm minimums .

Thursday July 9th Record Highs

Buffalo . 92F 1988 Rochester . 102F 1936 Watertown . 92F 1955

Thursday July 9th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo . 76F 1897 Rochester . 81F 1936 Watertown . 73F 1955

.

Friday July 10th Record Highs

Buffalo . 95F 1988 Rochester . 102F 1936 Watertown . 92F 2007

Friday July 10th Record Warm Minimums

Buffalo . 76F 1897 Rochester . 79F 1936 Watertown . 73F 2013


Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Buffalo (Ending Date) 1) 7/10/1988 - 7 2) 7/ 8/2020 - 6 (ongoing) 3) 7/ 1/1963 - 5 -) 8/14/1947 - 5

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Rochester (Ending Date)

1) 9/ 5/1973 - 9 2) 8/ 6/1955 - 8 -) 8/16/1944 - 8 4) 8/11/1900 - 7 5) 7/ 5/2018 - 6 -) 7/10/1988 - 6 -) 7/20/1977 - 6 -) 7/13/1936 - 6 -) 6/ 7/1925 - 6 -) 7/ 8/1921 - 6

Consecutive 90+ Degree Days in Watertown (Ending Date)

1) 8/ 3/1955 - 6 2) 8/ 5/1988 - 4 -) 9/ 5/1973 - 4 4) 7/ 7/1975 - 3 . 10)7/ 7/2020 - 2

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013- 014. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ012-019-085. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . AR/RSH NEAR TERM . AR SHORT TERM . AR/TMA LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . AR/JLA/RSH MARINE . AR CLIMATE . Apffel/JLA/RSH/Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 0 mi51 min 71°F 1013.5 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 13 mi81 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 75°F 76°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (+0.3)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 16 mi51 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 78°F1014.1 hPa56°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 21 mi21 min SSE 5.1 G 6 74°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.9)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi51 min 73°F 1013.8 hPa
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 46 mi81 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 75°F1012.5 hPa (+0.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 48 mi21 min S 6 G 8 74°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
NREP1 49 mi171 min Calm G 2.9 73°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY18 mi28 minSSW 37.00 miFair67°F63°F87%1013.6 hPa
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY24 mi87 minSSE 410.00 miFair74°F66°F76%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5SW7SW9SW5W5W6NW7W7W76W6W9SW5SW6SW3SW3S10SW7SW7SW7SW6S5S9SW3
2 days agoCalmSW3SW33N5NW76NW6NW5NW5W6NW6W6W4CalmSE3S3CalmS4CalmSW5S4S7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.