Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmwood Park, WI

UPDATE
Issued 655 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A few showers have persisted across southwestern Wisconsin this morning, with an isolated bolt of lightning remaining possible, but unlikely. Shower will continue to weaken as they move eastward, with only brief rainfall expected. Southwesterly winds this morning will shift to northwesterly this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves through. Even with this cold front, the late timeframe of the frontal passage will allow for highs around 80 degrees in much of southern Wisconsin. NAM Nest still indicates some potential for isolated storms to develop in southeastern Wisconsin during the frontal passage, but confidence remains low as capping remains in place and other CAMs have not joined in this solution.

MH

SHORT TERM
Issued 1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Today through Sunday:

A cold front will move east toward the area overnight, shifting east through the area on Saturday. There is a line of showers and some storms developing ahead of the front from northwest to west central Wisconsin, pushing slowly eastward. This activity may develop further to the southwest over the next few hours, as most of the instability is along and just ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings are showing a lot of dry air lingering in the low levels (mainly below 8000 feet AGL) over the forecast area overnight into Saturday. This may limit any showers or sprinkles from reaching the ground, and should also limit the advance of any convection. For now, will leave scattered sprinkles in far west and northwest parts of the area overnight into early morning, as the frontogenesis with the front weakens as it shifts east and there is little to no other support for upward vertical motion.

There is mean layer CAPE over 1200 to 1800 J/kg that develops later today, highest in far southeast Wisconsin, with daytime heating. However, forecast soundings are generally capped and have a fair amount of warm air in the 5000 to 9000 foot AGL layer help keep the capping in place. Thus, will leave the forecast dry for now for the rest of today.

There should be some middle to high clouds that move through, with some diurnal cumulus clouds that develops later in the morning into this afternoon. Winds shift from the south to the west northwest behind the front as it moves through. Some gusts of 15 to 20 MPH may occur ahead of and behind the front. Warm highs in the upper 70s northwest to lower to middle 80s southeast are expected today.

High pressure should move east southeast into the area later tonight into Sunday, with northwest winds bringing cold air advection and somewhat cooler temperatures and dew points into the area. Lows should drop into the lower to middle 50s over most of the area tonight, with highs Sunday in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Some passing differential CVA may help bring isolated to scattered showers to the area Sunday as well, though forecast soundings are showing only a few hours worth of good saturation for this to occur. For now, kept 20 to 30 percent chances for showers at times on Sunday.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

High pressure will move east of the region Sunday night into Monday, with increasing southeast winds on the backside of the high keeping dry air in the lower portions of the air column.
This may help shunt back any advancing showers and storms to later Monday or more likely Monday evening. Thus, chances for precipitation are now lower (below 30 percent) in the eastern parts of the area, and may need to be lowered more in the west (currently 40 to 70 percent) in later forecasts, if this dry look in the model trends continues. Chilly lows in the 40s Sunday night should rebound into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees on Monday.

Models and ensembles suggest that the main area of showers and thunderstorms should move into western parts of the area Monday evening and elsewhere later Monday night. The low level jet feed of moisture and upward vertical motion, along the surface warm front, should help bring rounds of showers and some storms to the area into at least Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings are showing moist adiabatic profiles with tall skinny mean layer CAPE that is modest at best and high precipitable water values approaching or over 2.00 inches. Given this setup, some training of convection may be possible, and locally heavy rainfall may occur.

The deep layer (30 to 40 knots) bulk shear values are fairly robust, though the poor lapse rates and tall skinny CAPE may favor more heavy rainfall than strong to severe storms. Could still see stronger storms with some gusty winds occur in this setup. Will continue to message the heavy rainfall and perhaps some stronger storms later Monday into Monday night/Tuesday.

There is more uncertainty if another round of showers and storms with some heavy rainfall would occur later Tuesday into Wednesday. The deterministic models are trending further south of the area with this next round of precipitation, as high pressure to the north shunts this activity southward. Ensembles still have a fairly wet period during this time, though they may not have caught onto this trend yet. For now, will leave higher chances (40 to 70 percent) for showers and storms for Tuesday into Wednesday, but adjustments downward may be needed if this drier trend continues.

The high may linger through a good portion of the rest of next week, so this drier trend may linger as well. Ensembles suggest temperatures may remain near or a little below seasonal normal values.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 655 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout today and tonight, with ceilings around 5000 ft as weak showers work eastward this morning. Scattered cumulus around 5000 ft remain, with high level clouds expected to move in this afternoon along the cold front. Isolated storms are possible along the cold front in far southeastern Wisconsin this afternoon, but confidence is very low (~10%). Ahead of the front, expect southwesterly winds gusting around 20 kt. Behind the front, expect northwesterly winds with gusts up to 15 kt. Cumulus ends around sunset, with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Northwest winds diminish to become light and variable. Winds remain northwesterly and begin to increase again into Sunday morning.

MH

MARINE
Issued 1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Southerly winds will continue to increase overnight, as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Winds will shift out of the west northwest today, as the cold front moves across the lake. Expecting wind gusts to remain primarily in the 25 to 30 knot range over the open waters, though a few gusts approaching gale force may occur in far northern portions of the lake.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the approaching cold front, mainly over northern portions of the lake. Winds will approach Small Craft Advisory levels this afternoon north of Port Washington.

High pressure around 30.2 inches will build in from the northern Great Plains Sunday night into Monday, bringing decreasing winds Saturday night through Sunday, and winds gradually shifting to the east and southeast and increasing Sunday night into Monday. The high will move east of the waters Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds will increase further and veer south southwest Monday night into Tuesday, as low pressure around 29.4 inches develops over Manitoba. Gales continue to appear likely during this time frame, with headlines becoming necessary in later forecasts if trends continue to hold. A Small Craft Advisory will eventually be needed for the nearshore waters as well Monday into Tuesday, for increasing winds and building waves. Some gales may occur here as well during this period.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the developing low from as early as Monday evening into Tuesday.
Winds will trend northerly and weaken behind a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.