Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:21PM Thursday December 5, 2019 12:04 PM EST (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, MA
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location: 42.71, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 051425 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 925 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will bring scattered snow showers and flurries to our region today. Then, an Alberta Clipper will bring a widespread light snow to our region tomorrow with impacts possible to evening commute before high pressure returns this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 9AM . upslope driven snow showers are ongoing across the Adirondacks, Berkshires, Taconics and southern Greens but radar trends suggest that the snow showers are weakening over western New England. Lake enhanced snow showers are also ongoing across the eastern Catskills but the latest high-res NAM continues to show these snow showers veering a bit more northwestward early this afternoon as a reinforcing shot of cold air pushes into eastern NY. We have adjusted our POPs, QPF and snow amounts to show 1-3 inches of snow accumulating across southern Herkimer into western Schoharie County. Local lake effect snow research supports the latest high-res NAM trends for this lake effect band penetrating into the Helderbergs and even as far inland as the southern Berkshires between 18z and 21z today. Should this occur, coatings to a few tenths of snow are possible but milder temperatures in the low to mid 30s should limit accumulations.

Winds shift northwest as the shot of cold air pushes into eastern NY/western New England this afternoon and become gusty between 20-30mph. Generally cloudy skies expected today but northwest flow downsloping off the terrain should lead to a few breaks of sun in the Hudson Valley, western Windham County, Berkshires, and NW CT.

Since temperatures are starting in the upper 20s to mid-30s early this morning, once the winds shift and increase from the northwest, temperature should reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s with around 40 mid Hudson Valley, and near 30 northern areas. However, temperatures should fall fairly quickly towards sunset.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Some isolated to scattered snow showers tonight off Lake Ontario into the western Mohawk Valley. Otherwise, intervals of clouds and dry. Then one more upper disturbance and associated cold front tracks into our region Friday with a more widespread light snow. There is very little moisture expected with this northern stream energy but it will be picking up some moisture off the Great Lakes.

There is a general consensus that the best coverage of light snow will be along areas from the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley through the Eastern Catskills, Capital Region, southern VT and Berkshires. Up to an inch of snow could occur in the eastern Mohawk and Hudson Valleys and 1 to 3 inches from the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley through the higher elevations of the eastern Catskills, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. Highs Friday in the lower to mid 30s but mid 20s to around 30 higher terrain.

After some scattered lingering snow shower activity Friday evening, clearing and drying Friday night. Tranquil and dry weather is expected Saturday and Saturday night as winds should be light and trend northwest, minimizing any coverage of lake effect snow shower activity. Weak warm advection and light west winds Saturday will further minimize any lake effect snow showers. Highs Saturday in the upper 20s to mid 30s but lower to mid 20s higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The extended period begins with high pressure sliding off the New England coast. A return flow of warmer and moister air will develop. Sunday looks to be to dry with temperatures rebounding from Saturday but still a few degrees below normal.

As the moist warm southerly flow continues Sunday night chances for precipitation increase. Temperature profiles support mainly rain although mixed precipitation is possible in the higher elevations.

As noted in previous discussions Monday and Tuesday look to be wet. Southerly flow continues along with low pressure riding up the lower Great Lakes. GEF ensembles during this time show PWATS to be about 1- 2 standard deviations above normal with 850mb winds about 1-2 standard deviations above normal. This yields 850mb moisture flux also about 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Deterministic models indicating 0.50-2 inch precipitation totals -- mostly rain during this time. Maxima locations and amounts differ among the models.

Factors that play a role in snowmelt are temperature, dew points, and wind. Temperatures during this period are forecast to be in the 40s most locations with some 30s in the Adirondacks. Dew points are forecast mainly in the 40s as well. At this point, winds do not look excessive. So runoff from rain and some snowmelt is likely with this event. It is still too early to say what the impact on area rivers will be, although river rises are likely.

As the previously mentioned low pressure system drives northeast, a strong cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a sharp drop in temperatures. High temperatures on Wednesday will be about 5 degrees below normal (or 15-20 degrees lower than Tuesday) with a sharp wind adding to the chill.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.

At KPSF, TAFs carry tempo group for MVFR conditions in -SN. Upslope flow into the Berkshires will lead to some enhancement in light SN activity possibly reaching MVFR for a period. At KALB also a brief period of MVFR conditions possible with some passing snow showers.

Otherwise, just VCSH at KGFL. Can't rule out MVFR conditions in a brief -SHSN, but confidence not high enough to include. KPOU should not experience any -SN activity.

Winds will become gusty later this morning through the day Thursday, particularly at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through the rest of the work week and first half of the weekend, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the next several days. Otherwise, some light snow is possible at times the remainder of this week. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. This will likely lead to at least some melting of the snowpack and runoff, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . NAS/Speciale NEAR TERM . NAS/Speciale SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . OKeefe AVIATION . OKeefe HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 61 mi35 min WSW 4.1 37°F 1006 hPa26°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA2 mi73 minW 16 G 228.00 miLight Snow34°F23°F64%1004.9 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT13 mi71 minW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast34°F23°F64%1004.5 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA20 mi71 minWNW 15 G 1910.00 miOvercast34°F19°F56%1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

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W7W9W9W7W6W5W5W7NW5NW3W5NW5NW6CalmW3W5--NE3CalmCalmCalm
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E6E8S4W4Calm36NW7W7W6W7W9W8W7W8W8W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.52.51.81.10.3-0.20.31.52.73.54.14.33.83.12.41.91.30.60.61.42.63.54.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:21 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     4.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.42.41.710.2-0.20.51.72.93.64.14.23.732.31.91.10.50.71.62.83.64.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.