Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moravia, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:33PM Friday December 4, 2020 7:27 PM EST (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:20PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202012042215;;827932 Fzus51 Kbuf 041439 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 939 Am Est Fri Dec 4 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-042215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 939 Am Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers late this morning, then rain showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moravia, NY
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location: 42.71, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 042342 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 642 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong coastal low pressure system will mainly miss our area off to the east late tonight and Saturday, sparing central NY and northeast PA from any significant impacts. There will be a mixture of light rain and snow overnight, transitioning to scattered lake effect snow showers Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Much colder temperatures arrive for the second half of the weekend, along with breezy northwest winds. Remaining mostly cloudy and chilly right into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 215 PM Update .

Main concerns in the near term will be a strong coastal storm passing mainly east of our area and then lake effect snow showers behind this system Saturday into Saturday night.

Latest trends in the 12z guidance are to nudge the coastal low back west ever so slightly . but the main impacts will still generally be just east/south of our forecast area. Total QPF from the coastal low may range up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch SE of a Monticello--Honesdale--Wilkes-Barre line . however half or more of this should be in the form of rain. Temperatures have warmed more than originally expected this afternoon, as breaks of sun have developed . with highs now reaching the low to mid-50s across NE PA and the southern Catskills region. Expect light rain to develop this evening south of Scranton and Monticello, then slowly lift north (about 20 miles only) by midnight. Temperatures should still be in the upper 30s to low 40s by midnight . so just about all locations should be rain (except maybe above 2000 feet elevation). Latest guidance in good agreement that by daybreak Saturday, there will be a strengthening 995mb low located near or just east of Ocean City MD. There is still some minor uncertainty in the extent of the precip shield on the NW side of the storm . with the 12z ECMWF showing more NW extent of QPF compared to most other guidance. Current official forecast is closer to the slightly further west HRRR/RAP/EC/CMC blend . with the GFS and especially NAM being a few miles further east. This gives likely PoPs into Saturday morning across Pike and Sullivan counties..with a 1/10th to 1/4 inch QPF between 12-18z across the far eastern portions of the county. Will need to closely watch the observational and hi- res/CAMs trends over the next 12 hrs or so to see if there will be any additional shift west. Higher confidence that the boundary layer temperatures will be rather slow to cool, with surface temperatures only falling between 31-35 over the higher elevations and 33-38 in the valleys by morning. Some wet snow should begin to mix in during the predawn hours, especially for the hilltops. Current forecast is for only up to 0.5 inches of snow by daybreak across Sullivan/Pike/S Wayne and E Lackawanna counties . and only above 1500 feet elevation. Some wrap around precipitation will continue to brush eastern Delaware, Sullivan and Pike Counties through the morning or early afternoon hours Saturday . gradually transitioning to mainly snow as temperatures cool aloft and at the surface. However, it would not be surprising for the lower elevations in the Wyoming, Lackawanna and Delaware valleys to generally see ptype remain all rain for this whole event. Therefore, current storm total snow accumulation for the areas being impacted by this coastal low (in our CWA) are basically 0" or a light slushy coasting in the valleys . with 1 to perhaps 2 inches across the higher hilltops . especially Pike/Sullivan and far eastern Delaware counties. The coastal low then exits east, with any precip moving out Saturday afternoon.

For the rest of the forecast area, north and west of where the direct impacts from the coastal low will be felt . expect some light rain to develop across the Finger Lake and NY Thruway corridor this afternoon and evening. This is from a separate low pressure system skirting by in southern Canada. This area of light rain will weaken and basically fall apart as it tries to move south into the Twin Tiers. Therefore expect mainly dry weather for the Twin Tiers into at least this evening and the first half of the overnight. Then, and upper level trough/disturbance will moves through this portion of the forecast area toward Saturday morning, before fully phasing with the coastal low by afternoon. As this disturbance moves overhead, and especially behind it, as much colder air aloft moves in on a northwest flow, expect scattered lake effect snow showers to develop (some valley rain showers possible Sat AM and early afternoon, before cold air deepens). 850 mb temperatures are forecast to fall to around -10 or -12c by Saturday night. Latest guidance is in good agreement that this pattern will keep isolated to scattered lake effect snow showers going on a 330-350 degree flow . with some enhancement off the Finger Lakes likely. Detrimental factors to seeing any substantial snow accumulation will be a short fetch over Lake Ontario and very low inversion heights . only around 3-5k ft agl. There is really no synoptic moisture above this level . but current thinking is that it will be just cold enough (-10 to -12C) at the top of the clouds layer for ice crystals to form . with rather inefficient snow flakes (columns or plates) expected. Therefore, am only expecting maybe a half into to 1.5 inches of snow accumulation in the favored lake effect areas Saturday afternoon through daybreak Sunday morning. Took out the mention of fzdz from the weather grids for now . but this will need to be monitored closely. Outside of the lake effect expect mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with NW winds 10-20 mpg gusting up to 30 mph. Colder with highs in the 30s and overnight lows well down into the 20s Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 310 PM Update .

Cold and dry Canadian airmass pushes in, with below normal temperatures to finish off the weekend and to begin next week.

With the stacked low exiting the Gulf of Maine on Sunday morning, troughing and NNW cyclonic flow will set up over the region and persist through the period. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation on Sunday or Monday, as little lake response will occur due to the short fetch out of the NNW. However, can't rule out a slight chance for a snow shower or flurries, but likely we will just see cloudy conditions SE of the lakes. Forecast soundings also indicate a strong subsidence inversion at H850, and any moisture is trapped below it in a shallow mixed layer. Was thinking there is a possibility for possible freezing drizzle, but the airmass is so cold that there should still be ice crystal growth in the shallow moisture layer, with the top of the saturated layer nearing -12C. As such, have removed the mention of freezing drizzle from the forecast for now and just stuck with a slight chance for snow showers with little to no accumulations.

The flow pattern becomes more disrupted late Sunday into Monday, and not favorable for lake effect/enhanced processes as a secondary low drops south across the w-central Great Lakes. The air mass will remain on the cool side and also relatively dry, so have capped snow shower chances to less than 20 percent through the day Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 340 am update . The pattern will remain dry and cool, but gradually warm going into the middle of the week. Weather conditions Monday night into Tuesday will continue to be dominated by weak upper level ridging and large scale suppression as a low pressure system passes east through the mid Atlantic region and exits off the coast. The northwest flow will persist through Wednesday as the next short wave drops south/se from Ontario into the Northeast during the day Wed. The wave will likely have minimal impact on the region due to a lack of forcing and also due to the system expected to lift to the ne quickly in response to a building ridge from the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley and srn Great Lakes by Thursday. This building ridge should allow for warming temperatures going into the latter part of the week along with a period of dry weather as well.

High temperatures will warm from the 30s on Tuesday into the mid 40s by Thursday . and overnight lows will become more mild as well, going from the lower 20s into the lower 30s during this time.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

VFR at all terminals to start the evening. For NY terminals ceilings are still expected to fall into the MVFR around 03Z at KRME and KSYR with later timing closer to 06Z elsewhere in NY. This MVFR deck should be fairly stable between 1,500 and 2,500 feet through the remainder of the TAF period. IFR is not expected at this time but can't be ruled out in the 09Z-15Z window today for short intervals.

Two main concerns Saturday after about 15Z. First is northwesterly wind gusts at all sites of around 20 to perhaps 25 knots. Second is for some light snow showers with MVFR visibilities at KITH around 15Z and possibly into KBGM before the end of the TAF period.

Outlook .

Saturday night . Occasional restrictions possible in snow showers.

Sunday . Restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals in occasional snow showers.

Monday through Wednesday . Mainly VFR. Lingering lake effect clouds possible Monday and Tuesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . MPK LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . MJM/MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 52 mi57 min SW 6 G 8 40°F 1011.4 hPa37°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 73 mi27 min WSW 5.1 G 6 40°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi57 min 39°F 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY16 mi31 minSW 610.00 miOvercast44°F28°F53%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8S8S9S8S6S6S7S7S6S7S11SW13
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1 day agoW9SW4CalmW5SW5SW5S7SW8S7S6S8S7S6SW8S10SW9SW11SW8SW7SW10S6SW3SW9
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2 days agoSW11SW14SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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