Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Websters Crossing, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:08PM Sunday March 7, 2021 12:42 PM EST (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:06AMMoonset 12:01PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 930 Am Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Rest of today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Scattered flurries. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 34 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202103072200;;609411 FZUS51 KBUF 071430 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 930 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-072200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Websters Crossing, NY
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location: 42.71, -77.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071436 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 936 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. March's changeable weather will be in full force the next few days, with a few flurries today . and continued cold temperatures being replaced by well above normal warmth by mid- week. A slow moving frontal boundary will give several opportunities for rain showers Wednesday night through Friday . that when combined with snow melt will swell local creeks and streams.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Our region lies on the western periphery of an upper level low that is centered over NewFoundland this morning. At the surface a large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes is pushing eastward.

Dry air is winning out this morning, with the region featuring just a few areas of clouds . with these closer to Lake Erie at present moment. As surface temperatures rise expect some strato-cu to expand some south of the lakes, but there will be breaks and these should erode rather quickly late this afternoon as the surface ridge nudges into the area. Despite the sun, a still cold airmass aloft will bring another sub freezing afternoon. A few flurries are possible, with a dusting at most.

Tonight any flurries move east of Lake Ontario as winds back to westerly with the approach of the surface high. Clear skies and good radiational cooling conditions will bring lows into the teens across the Lake Plain, and single digits across high elevations, and possibly below zero on the Tug Hill.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A ridge of surface high pressure will drift east of the area Monday, allowing a warm front to move from west to east across the area. Moisture and forcing along the warm front will be very limited. A few light rain or wet snow showers cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening east of Lake Ontario in weak isentropic upglide ahead of the warm front. Otherwise the rest of the area will stay dry with a period of mid level clouds. Warm advection will allow temperatures to recover nicely after a cold start, with highs reaching the low to mid 40s in Western NY and low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario by late afternoon.

High pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday behind the weak warm frontal segment, with dry weather continuing. There should be more sunshine Tuesday with subsidence over the eastern Great Lakes from building high pressure surface and aloft. Lows Monday night will be much milder than recent nights, with low to mid 30s in Western NY and mid to upper 20s for the North Country. Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s in Western NY, and low to mid 40s for the North Country.

High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast Wednesday. Dry weather will continue, with just a modest increase in mid/high clouds during the afternoon ahead of the next system. Southwest flow and warm advection will ramp up over the Ohio Valley and New England, allowing a much warmer airmass to move into our region. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area, with mid 50s for the North Country. A SSW wind direction will keep most of the lake induced cooling on the Canadian side of the border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A mid level trough will advance from the Northern Plains Wednesday night to the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Deep moisture will gradually increase Wednesday night, with a pre-frontal trough possibly bringing a few rain showers overnight. A better chance of rain showers will arrive Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front slowly approaches and then crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Both the ECMWF and GFS model guidance packages continue to suggest a wave of low pressure may move along the frontal zone late Thursday and Thursday night, which would enhance rainfall potential. Thursday will still be warm, with highs well into the 50s and possibly lower 60s if there is enough dry time. The wind direction will likely be more southwest than Wednesday, bringing more lake cooling to areas northeast of the lakes including Buffalo.

Colder air will filter back into the region Friday as cold advection increases behind the cold front and the mid level trough reaches the eastern Great Lakes. The mid level trough may produce a few more scattered showers Friday, especially early in the day. The airmass rapidly dries out Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, so despite colder northwest flow expect mainly dry conditions. Highs by Saturday will be back in the 30s.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. For the 12Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are largely found, and these conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with light northwest winds as surface high pressure pushes towards our region. Lake effect flurries will gradually end southeast of the Lakes this period . with any snow flurries lowering flight conditions to MVFR/low end VFR.

VFR flight conditions will then continue through tonight with just some high clouds building in from the west late. Light winds will becoming southerly during the final hours of the night.

Outlook .

Monday through Wednesday . VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE. High pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes today with light winds that will back to westerly, and minimal wave heights.

A warming airmass will limit wave potential on the lakes into the middle part of the week.

A slow moving frontal boundary will bring chances for rain showers by Wednesday night, along with cooler air that will aid in the generation of higher wave heights . possibly nearing SCA thresholds.

HYDROLOGY. A significantly warmer pattern will start on Tuesday and this will result in increasing snow melt and associated run-off. There is still significant snow pack in place, especially across higher terrain and in the woods. The warmest temperatures will be on Wednesday and Thursday, with showers on Thursday and Thursday night likely to add a quarter inch or so to the run-off.

MMEFS ensembles suggest that the risk for rivers and creeks to flood from run-off alone is fairly low. If rainfall amounts are higher than expected, there's a low risk that some rivers and creeks would flood on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Buffalo Creeks and Allegheny River the most vulnerable to this.

Any risk for flooding will come later for the Black River basin. There's much more snow pack in place in this basin, so the main risk is a more prolonged warm period. Highest flows in the Black River basin will be late this week or next weekend, however the overall risk is still a fairly low one.

The greatest risk of flooding is from ice jams along the Buffalo Creeks, mainly near where they flow into the Buffalo River. High flows from last week left ice jams in place, and cold weather since then has frozen these in place. As flows increase mid- week there's a risk of ice jam flooding before these dislodge. It's difficult to predict if these jams will break up quickly or remain in place long enough to cause flooding. It does appear that the warm up this week will eventually flush out most of the remaining ice on the Buffalo Creeks, and also will melt most of the snow pack south of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas/Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/Thomas SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Thomas HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi43 min N 7 G 8 22°F 1032.2 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi55 min 23°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 71 mi55 min S 5.1 G 7 25°F 33°F1028.6 hPa-2°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY12 mi49 minN 710.00 miOvercast30°F11°F45%1031.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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NW10N7NW5N4N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmNW4NW8NW5N5N8N7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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