Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Websters Crossing, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday January 17, 2021 4:50 AM EST (09:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 938 Pm Est Sat Jan 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers, then snow showers likely late. Waves 8 to 12 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202101171015;;034067 FZUS51 KBUF 170238 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 938 PM EST Sat Jan 16 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-171015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Websters Crossing, NY
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location: 42.71, -77.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 170823 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 323 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. A large . slow moving storm system will make its way from New England to the Canadian maritimes today with cold air in its wake supporting accumulating lake enhanced snow east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. While the widespread snow will gradually taper off east of Lake Ontario late today and tonight . lake snows will become more common east of Lake Erie In fact. the higher terrain south of Buffalo could pick up a foot of snow by Monday night Otherwise. a more wintry pattern will keep frequent . accumulating snow showers in the forecast through at least mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Deep moisture in the wake of a stacked low over Maine will keep accumulating . lake enhanced snows over the Eastern Lake Ontario region through most of today. This will especially be the case from the Tug Hill south where as much as six more inches of accumulation is expected by nightfall. The southward progression of a sfc trough will push the lake enhanced snows to the south shore of the lake tonight where an inch or so of accumulation is anticipated.

Meanwhile . generally nuisance lake enhanced snow showers are already in place across parts of the Srn Tier. Deeper synoptic moisture moving in ahead of the next shortwave will combine with a lifting cap to fuel more efficient snow making for that area later today into tonight. Have thus raised a winter weather advisory for that area that will be in effect through at least Monday. Daytime snow accums across the Southern Tier will generally range from one to three inches with an additional 2 to 4 inches expected tonight.

Otherwise . today and tonight will continue to feature a wealth of clouds across the region. Scattered flurries and nuisance snow showers found outside of the aforementioned lake snow areas today will increase in coverage tonight with a sfc trough sagging into the region. Most areas outside of the lake snow areas should be able to scrape up at least a coating . if not an inch or so of accumulation. This could make some roadways slick for the Monday morning commute.

Sfc based trough over the western counties on Monday will focus enough lift for a general inch or two accumulation. While this could be a headache for motorists on untreated roadways . the main concern will more concentrated lake snows east of Lake Erie. Three to six inches of snow are expected to accumulate on Monday across parts of the SOuthern Tier . especially for the higher terrain. Unlike the previous day (Sun) . Monday afternoon temps will struggle to make it to freezing in most areas. This will further aggravate road conditions.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Several disturbances will traverse through a thermal trough that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes across Lake Ontario during the Monday night through Tuesday night time period. Unlike the days leading into this period . a colder airmass with H85 temps of -10 to -12c will certainly support enough instability over the lakes for pure lake effect. This will focus accumulating lake snows east of both lakes. Headlines will likely be needed for this 36 hour period.

The trough will push south of Lake Ontario on Wednesday . and with a -15c H85 airmass in place . fairly widespread lake snow showers can be anticipated for the western counties.

Ridging Wednesday night with non-diurnal temp trend.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Behind the passing system, 850H temps of around -15C to -18C will continue to allow for the potential for a lake response east of both lakes into the first half of Wednesday morning. But synoptic moisture as of right now looks minimal, so any lake response looks weak with light snow.

An area of low pressure will track from near James Bay southeast to Southern Quebec from Thursday morning through Friday morning. As this system tracks southeast, an associated warm front will cross the WNY and Northern Finger Lakes area, causing warming temperatures aloft where 850H temps warm to around -5C for Thursday morning. Some snow showers will accompany the passing warm front, with additional snow showers more likely with the weak passing cold front later in the day on Thursday into Thursday night.

Behind the passing cold front Thursday night, lake enhanced and then lake effect snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and off through Saturday as 850H temperatures drop from around -9C Friday morning to around -18C by Saturday morning.

During this period temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal, except on Thursday and Friday where temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. For the 06Z TAFS plumes of snow to the east of both lakes will bring IFR and lower flight conditions. Though marginal instability, conditions will favor heavy snow east of Lake Ontario that will continue to bring KART IFR and lower ceiling and visibility this morning. As winds subtly veer Sunday this snow off Lake Ontario will orient just south of KART and across the southern Tug Hill region. Meanwhile off Lake Erie, though lighter, snow showers will continue to produce MVFR/IFR flight conditions for KJHW through the morning hours. Tonight this band of snow off Lake Erie may sneak up towards KBUF with light snow showers. As a surface trough drops southward across the region tonight, it will then carry snows back southward, with lake effect snow with reduced visibilities likely near KIAG/KROC tonight . with snows off Lake Erie also in the vicinity of KJHW.

Outside of the lake snows, MVFR flight conditions will be widespread . and southwest winds will be gusty . up to 25 knots or so.

Outlook .

Monday through Thursday . MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers east of both lakes.

MARINE. Fresh to strong westerlies will continue to support small craft advisories today into at least this evening for all of the New York nearshore waters.

As the sfc pressure gradient weakens tonight . winds will gradually subside. This will especially be the case on Lake Erie where winds and waves are forecast to drop below small craft advisory criteria by late evening.

While moderate to occasionally fresh westerlies will produce choppy conditions throughout the Lower Great Lakes on Monday . conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi51 min W 19 G 27 35°F 998 hPa (+0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi57 min 35°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 71 mi57 min SW 22 G 27 34°F 37°F999.9 hPa15°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY12 mi57 minW 310.00 miOvercast34°F25°F70%1000.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmN3CalmCalmNW6W5NW9NW13NW9NW8NW4NW6W4NE3E33W6
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1 day agoS8S7SE8SE6SE11
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SE11S9SE7S6SE7S3CalmCalmCalmNW4N4
2 days agoS5S4S4S4S4SE4S33N4NW3CalmNW3NW3E3CalmCalmCalmS4S5SE6S4S4S7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.