Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:43 PM EDT (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-200811t0230z/ 1016 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4225 8318 4233 8312 4237 8293 4234 8296 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0214z 266deg 32kt 4219 8322 4196 8316 4169 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202008110226;;259473 FZUS73 KDTX 110216 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-110226-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 132353 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

- Very warm with a chance of an afternoon shower/storm Friday and Saturday

- Best storm chances Saturday night and Sunday morning

- Much cooler and mostly dry much of next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

-- Very warm with a chance of an afternoon shower/storm Friday and Saturday --

Most areas should stay dry through early Saturday. High cirrus clouds are the main feature over the area this afternoon, with a only a few cumulus developing with ridging holding in control.

We expect that a few isolated showers/storms will be possible across the SE portion of the area toward Battle Creek, Lansing, and Jackson later Friday afternoon. That portion of the area will be on the NW periphery of a weak sfc wave trying to lift NNW from OH. This wave will have LI/s of -2 to -3C to work with in popping an afternoon shower or storm. Severe weather is not expected as CAPE profiles are rather thin, and shear is quite limited with a weak flow up through the column.

The small chance of a shower or storm will reappear Saturday afternoon for most of the area away from Lake Michigan. The weak surface trough will rotate at little further NW, and combine with the diurnal trough over the land area to produce some convergence to help produce the chance. Instability will be a little better with dew points coming up a bit. Most areas will likely stay dry.

-- Best storm chances Saturday night and Sunday morning --

The timing of the best storm chances for the area remains later Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will be when we see the cold front push through the area. Obviously, this is not the optimal time for stronger storms, due to a lack of diurnal heating. Moisture pooling along the front will help to feed some instability, along with a short wave that will be diving in.

The models do indicate that we will have a little better forcing around with the short wave diving just a little further south than indicated 24 hours ago. This will help keep a legit chance of storms in for the area. Upper winds with the short wave will help the shear profiles a bit. Lacking better instability seems to be the limiting factor with this system. This does look like it should mostly be clear of the area by 18z Sunday.

-- Much cooler and mostly dry much of next week --

We will become under the influence of general trough aloft for much of next week. This results in much cooler temperatures, and a mainly dry forecast.

The latest model trends keep the upper jet mainly north and northeast of the area, on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet. A few isolated showers can not be ruled out, especially on Monday with a short wave not far away. However, ridging in the lower levels being produced by the upper ridge to our west should keep most of the area dry most of the time. In addition, moisture will be quite limited once it gets swept out on Sunday.

Temperatures will only get into the mid 70s on Monday, and will slowly rebound to the lower 80s by Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

VFR continuing for the most part through Friday evening although there are a couple caveats. First, can't completely rule out some patchy shallow ground fog again late tonight into early Friday morning but this would have minimal impact. Second, widely scattered showers and perhaps even a tstm are expected to develop after 18Z Friday - mainly south and east of GRR. If one of these showers impacts a terminal, some brief reductions in vsbys are possible Friday afternoon. Sfc winds mainly easterly at 5-10 kts.

MARINE. Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

We do not anticipate any headlines being needed likely until the late Sunday-Monday time frame. Offshore winds will dominate the next couple of days, with winds becoming onshore for the late afternoon and evening hours due to the development of the lake breeze.

Winds will start to come up Saturday night ahead of the incoming cold front. For now, the winds look to stay below headline criteria. The better winds will arrive behind the front, and continue through Monday. Headlines will likely be needed with the lake waters near their annual peak warmth, and with the air mass fairly cool coming in.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . NJJ DISCUSSION . NJJ AVIATION . Meade MARINE . NJJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi43 min ENE 14 G 17 74°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi55 min 76°F 75°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi43 min NNE 12 G 13 79°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair76°F60°F58%1018.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F65%1019.3 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair73°F61°F68%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN34NE3NE6NE7NE10NE7E8NE5NE4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmSE85N3CalmN4NE4Calm
2 days agoE5SW7W4SW9W10W10W11W7W6W5W6NW7N6N5NW8N7NW8N8N5N7N7N5NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.