Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lansing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:39PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 5:25 PM EST (22:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 3:34PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-191230t1215z/ 714 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 715 am est... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The wind shift has moved out of the warned area. Lat...lon 4173 8349 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4223 8319 4234 8310 4237 8299 4235 8294 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1214z 232deg 43kt 4292 8284 4267 8247 4234 8204
LCZ423 Expires:201912301224;;155656 FZUS73 KDTX 301214 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 714 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-301224-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lansing, MI
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location: 42.71, -84.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 222029 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 329 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

- Light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation still on track for Thursday into early Saturday

- Quiet weather early next week with some precipitation possible by the middle of next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

-- Light snow or a rain/snow mix still on track for Thursday into early Saturday --

Current water vapor imagery reveals a mid level, open wave system moving into Iowa. Radar and surface observations indicate light to moderate precipitation is falling, with the predominant p-type snow. Assessment of temps aloft at 925/850mb from Kansas City to Des Moines indicates a -1C isothermal layer, flirting with 0C. Where it is snowing, surface temperatures are as high as 34 to 35 degrees with dew points hovering around freezing. A few surface observations indicate a mix of freezing rain and snow. This batch of precipitation, which should be all snow by the time it gets here, should arrive near our lakeshore by 12z Thursday. Some minor travel impacts could be experienced near/west of US 131 for the Thursday morning commute with a light coating of snow and temperatures below freezing.

Light snow will likely continue into Thursday afternoon with totals from the morning/afternoon activity probably 1"-2" where snow is persistent (especially near/west of US 131). That seems reasonable given we should avoid most, or all, positive energy aloft (warm layer). Still, any subtle wobbles to the thermal profile could melt the snowflakes and turn surface precip to rain or a rain/snow mix. Given the high DGZ and the depth of the supercooled cloud layer, riming of the snowflakes is likely, limiting accumulation rates. Highs Thursday afternoon should reach 32F-35F. Travel impacts look less likely for the Thursday evening commute given the marginal surface temperatures and effectiveness of salt.

We're still facing the same dilemma for Friday into Saturday with p-type and accumulation potential. With warming temperatures aloft Friday morning and surface temps at or below freezing, we could see a brief period of light freezing rain occur with locally slick roads possible. Borderline low-level thermal profiles suggest mixed rain and snow for Friday afternoon with little to no impact to travelers. For Friday night, very low snow to liquid ratios are still anticipated, possibly down into the 5:1-8:1 range. This should keep accumulations in check for many locations, likely 1"-2". However, there is still a plausible scenario that could unfold which would suggest locally several inches more snow than currently forecast. The DGZ does lower a bit Friday night and there is sufficient lift present through a deeply saturated layer. If temperatures aloft do not get above 0C Friday night, several inches of wet snow could accumulate in spite of riming/low SLRs. Some impacts to travel Saturday morning could result if this lower probability scenario materializes. Lingering mixed rain and snow or light snow mixed with light freezing drizzle may continue through Sunday morning with limited impacts.

-- Quiet weather early next week with some precipitation possible by the middle of next week --

We are anticipating predominantly dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. Our next chance for precipitation could come as early as Wednesday with GEFS/ECM ensemble members suggesting a risk for light rain or snow by that time or shortly thereafter.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1146 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

The primary aviation concerns through 18Z Thursday are as follows: * Timing of light snow approaching from the southwest toward the end of the TAF Period * Cig/visby reductions associated with the light snow

Broken upper-level cloud cover will prevail through daylight hours today with southerly winds. Gusts may exceed 20 kts through daylight hours, with 30 kts possible at MKG. Clouds will gradually lower (but remain VFR) and winds will slacken after sunset in tandem with increasing mid-level moisture. By daybreak, light snow will be knocking on the doorstep of MKG/GRR/AZO/BTL, but a dry low-level airmass is expected to force virga initially. Confidence is low on when snowflakes will make it to the ground with the latest suite of high resolution model guidance suggesting an earlier arrival time than previously thought. Opted to take a middle of the road approach with the outgoing TAF with -SN at MKG/GRR/LAN/BTL between 12-15Z, but further adjustments will be needed in a later issuance. When the snowflakes do make it to the ground, they will be small and rather effective at reducing visibility. As such, opted to offer 1-2SM in spite of expected low precipitation rates. LAN/JXN will likely see snow just after the end of the TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

High wave action and the threat for lakeshore flooding will gradually subside into tonight. At least some portions of our shoreline have a narrow buffer of ice that may be helping mitigate erosion and flooding. We are expecting waves to subside below SCA criteria from midday Thursday into the foreseeable future.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Other than a localized ice jam in the Kalamazoo River near Comstock, rivers are experiencing declining levels with little or no ice cover in place. No new ice growth is expected in the coming days given rising surface temperatures. Precipitation totals from Thursday through Sunday will likely not be significant enough to produce any substantial rises on rivers but may slow descents.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037-043-050-056.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ846>849.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844-845.



SYNOPSIS . Hoving DISCUSSION . Hoving AVIATION . Borchardt HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 88 mi25 min SSW 19 G 20 31°F 1021 hPa (-0.7)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 88 mi55 min 34°F 32°F1020.5 hPa20°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 91 mi25 min S 5.1 G 8.9 31°F 1025.7 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI5 mi33 minS 1010.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1023.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi31 minS 410.00 miFair29°F14°F53%1022.7 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI16 mi31 minS 1010.00 miFair30°F17°F58%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW8SW6S6S7S8SW8S8SW9SW10S9SW8SW8S11S9S13
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1 day agoW4W4W5W6W4NW7NW6N3NW4W3CalmSW4W4S3S6SW5SW7SW8W9W11W13W15W13W10
2 days agoN4N3CalmW3W5W3CalmNW6NW5NW4NW3NW5NW4W3W3CalmNW3N4CalmNW5NW45N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.