Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glendale, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:42PM Sunday December 15, 2019 4:41 PM PST (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 248 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 13 seconds...subsiding to 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds after midnight.
Mon..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Tue night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell W 9 to 10 ft and sw 6 to 7 ft.
Wed..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell W 10 to 11 ft and sw 5 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
Wed night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. W swell 10 ft...subsiding to 8 to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 9 to 10 ft...building to 13 ft after midnight. W swell 9 ft... Building to 12 ft.
Fri..S gales 35 kt...easing to 25 kt. Wind waves 13 ft... Subsiding to 8 to 10 ft. Mixed swell W 11 to 12 ft and S 7 to 8 ft.
PZZ300 248 Pm Pst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will subside below advisory criteria by Sunrise Monday. This will be short-lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. This front will bring increasing southerly winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, and will build seas to a very steep state.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glendale, OR
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location: 42.72, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 152242 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 237 PM PST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION. A rather quiet weather pattern is in store through at least the middle of the week. A warm front is lifting north of the area with not much more than high and mid level clouds moving in from the northwest. Low clouds are hanging tough in the some of the valleys west and east of the Cascades. This should break up late this afternoon, but it may end up being short lived with low clouds and patchy fog and freezing fog returning to west side valleys tonight. This is because the atmosphere will be stable as upper ridging builds over the area and existing low level moisture from recent precipitation. We could see a repeat of low clouds and fog and freezing fog for the similar areas Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Dry weather is expected Monday through Tuesday night. The upper ridge axis shifts east Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough approaches from the west. Models vary on the evolution and details, but the general consensus is for the upper trough to split which will slow down the eastward progression and limit the amount of precipitation. Could not rule out a slight chance of rain over the marine waters Tuesday night, but inland areas are expected to remain dry.

The upper trough will move inland through northern California Wednesday with the best chance for precipitation remaining south of our area. However the could not rule out a chance of rain along the coast and Douglas County as a remnants of a frontal system move onshore. The floodgates are expected to open up late Wednesday night as an atmospheric river event starts to bring moderate to heavy rain to the coast. More on this will follow in the extended discussion below. -Petrucelli

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models continue to show the arrival of a strengthening wave along an approaching cold front Wednesday night and Thursday. The front will become west to east oriented along the Oregon coast. This will result in an atmospheric river/heavy rain event over the Oregon. Precipitable water values with this system are forecast to be around 1.0 inches, which combined with southwest flow aloft will feed significant moisture into the front. Heavy to moderate rain is expected along the coast and over the coastal mountains as this system moves onshore Wednesday night and Thursday. Mainly moderate to light precipitation is expected to spread inland. Although, locally heavy precipitation is possible in some west side areas such as into Josephine and Douglas Counties.

The heaviest band of precipitation is forecast to shift northward on Friday as an upper trough offshore drops southward and a ridge develops over the West. Of note, models and ensembles show variability in the exact location of this band of heavy precipitation. The duration of how long this band of heavy precipitation is located over the CWA and how quickly and how far it shifts northward on Friday is a significant concern in determining the amount of rainfall received over the area. Given model variability, have leaned towards the ensembles mean for the forecast during the Friday period with heaviest precipitation focused just north of the CWA.

Also, during the Thursday through Friday night period, winds are expected to increase along the coast, over the mountains and into some valley locations. A strong northwest to southeast pressure gradient combined with a 50 to 65 kt 700 mb jet will result in the potential for strong and gusty winds in the Shasta Valley and Summer Lake area. Winds may also become strong and gusty in the southern Rogue Valley as well. At the coast, a strong 925 mb southern jet of around 60 to 70 kt is shown in the 12z GFS model. This would result in strong gusty winds over the coastal waters and into the coast.

On Saturday, the upper trough will will shift towards the area and the now south to north oriented front will move inland. This will result in a period of moderate to heavy precipitation across much of the area. Winds are expected to trend lower by Saturday evening and night as the front moves inland and to the east.

Snow is possible over the mountains during the storm period. Snow levels Wednesday night through Friday period are expected to initially start out around upper pass levels then rise some late on Thursday to around 5000 to 6000 feet. Snow levels lower a bit on Saturday with continued mountain impacts. Snow is then possible down to eastern valley floors Saturday night with the frontal passage.

On Sunday, expect continued chances for precipitation over the area as a shortwave moves around the upper trough and into the area. This may result in a mix of light to moderate rain and mountain/east side snow.

There is a potential for impacts from heavy rain, mountain snow and strong winds late this week. Variability remains in the model forecasts. So check back for updates and further details. -CC

AVIATION. For the 15/18Z TAFs . While the east side is mostly VFR with terrain obscuration along the Cascades (near Klamath Falls), west side valleys and along the coast is currently a mix of IFR/LIFR with widespread terrain obscurations. Expect conditions to become VFR everywhere by noon, though localized terrain obscuration may persist. Widespread IFR, localized LIFR conditions will develop again by Monday morning in the west side valleys. -miles

MARINE. Updated 215 PM PST Sunday, 15 December 2019 . Seas will continue to diminish overnight, finally subsiding below small craft advisory criteria by sunrise Monday. This will be short-lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday night ahead of the next frontal system. A very broad and large swell originating from the Aleutian Islands will follow on Thursday. This combined with strong southerly winds will make for some very hazardous sea conditions Thursday through Saturday. -Sargeant

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 61 mi54 min S 5.1 G 6 52°F1026.2 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 68 mi66 min Calm G 1 52°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR7 mi1.8 hrsS 30.15 miFog33°F30°F89%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6S6S7S9S6S7SW6S4SW553W3Calm--------S3SE3CalmS4S3S5
1 day ago4--3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W3CalmS4S4CalmS6S7SE6SE6SE6SE6S10
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2 days ago6SW8----S8S6----S8S5--SE4------CalmSE4SE4SE4S8S4S8SW7SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:23 AM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:28 AM PST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:48 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 PM PST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM PST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.25.35.95.85.34.53.83.33.33.94.85.96.87.276.14.62.91.3-0-0.7-0.60.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:25 AM PST     6.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:19 AM PST     3.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:04 PM PST     8.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:17 PM PST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.86.56.45.854.23.83.94.55.66.77.687.76.7531.2-0.3-0.9-0.80.21.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.