Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glendale, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:08PM Thursday March 4, 2021 2:32 PM PST (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:53AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 207 Pm Pst Thu Mar 4 2021
.gale warning in effect through Friday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..S wind 30 kt except S 20 to 25 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 13 to 16 ft. NW swell 8 to 9 ft at 17 seconds...building to W 10 to 11 ft at 17 seconds. Rain through the night.
Fri..S wind 30 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 13 to 16 ft...subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. W swell 9 to 11 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..Northern portion, S wind 5 to 15 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 5 kt...backing to se in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat..S wind 5 kt...rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 9 to 11 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 11 to 12 ft...building to 16 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sun night..W wind 5 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 15 to 18 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Mon..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. W swell 13 to 15 ft.
Tue..S wind 15 kt...becoming W 5 kt in the evening, then... Veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 11 ft...subsiding to 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glendale, OR
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location: 42.72, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 041736 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 936 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021

UPDATE. With a secondary low developing offshore behind the front approaching the coast today, the front stalls a bit with later timing bringing the precipitation in from near the coast. Current models are indicating that the precip will not move much inland from near the coast until Friday morning, and have updated the forecast to reflect this later timing. Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 540 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021/

SHORT TERM . The focus for the next 24 hours will be on the strong winds along the coast as a low pressure system lingers off shore. We'll see a strong well defined cold front approach the coast later this evening bringing strong wind gusts to most of the coast and headlands around 1000 to 2000 feet in the coastal mountains. The current forecast calling for wind gusts up to 70 mph appears on track. Most of these wind gusts up to 70 mph will occur near historically windy locations, like Cape Blanco and near Flynn Prairie. The impacts are isolated to scattered power outages as this cold front lingers offshore. the 75 knot 925 mb winds are still in the models ahead of the cold front, so that aspect of the forecast remains on track.

As the cold front slowly edges inland, the stronger winds will eventually spread to many locations farther to the east. The Shasta valley is main concern here with the Medford to Redding pressure gradient still persisting around 8 mb, which usually implies high wind warning gusts around Weed. The high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) compiled from SPC is also showing the mean wind gusts around 50 knots around the Weed CA area. The impacts here are difficulties driving high profile vehicles. There may be isolated power outages as well.

As we move into Friday, the front is forecast to finally move onshore. We're concerned about the winds persisting into more of Friday as the HREF is showing those high wind gusts persisting through most of Friday in the Shasta and Rogue valleys. It should be noted most of our wind warnings and advisories go to 7pm Friday.

As this front moves onshore Friday, we'll see a strong atmospheric river arrive as well. The integrated water vapor transport(IVT) has strengthened a bit recently and is now showing average values around 550. The good thing here is these higher values will last for roughly 12 to 18 hours. The precipitation forecast associated with these higher IVTs is also interesting since most of it will fall over Curry and Coos County. The QPF is 2 to 3 inches along the coast with about 0.5 inches around the Umpqua,Rogue and Shasta valleys through Saturday. The impacts here are minimal as we're not expecting any flooding. Some creeks and streams may rise rapidly under the heavy precipitation Friday night.

The last topic for Friday will be the snow forecast in western Siskiyou County. We have high confidence that the plume of higher IVT will arrive on shore around Friday evening and bring snow to the mountains of Siskiyou County. We're currently forecasting around 6 to 8 inches around 5000 feet. The NBM probabilities of snow exceedance show a 20 - 30% chance to exceed 6 inches over the higher terrain locations near California Highway 3. These seem a little low given the strength of the IVT and how much QPF is coming out some of the models. In any case, impacts again will be minimal as the heavy snow will only impact travel near Highway 3 in California. Other minor travel impacts are possible once the snow levels lower behind the front. However, snowfall totals should amount to no more than 3 inches in Mt. Shasta City by Saturday.

LONG TERM . /Issued 335 PM PST Wed Mar 3 2021/ (Saturday through Wednesday) . Not much has changed in the overall scheme of things. Confidence is high the active pattern will continue during the forecast period. However it may not be all that bad overall this coming weekend. It won't be completely dry, but there could be larger periods of dry time. By next week, storms originating from the Gulf of Alaska will drop down into the Pacific northwest. Typically these result in cooler and unsettled weather.

Saturday, the upper trough shifts east of the area during the morning and we could actually catch a relative break in the action from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening as weak ridging builds into the area. This break could carry over to Saturday night before the next front arrives Sunday. However the operational ECMWF and GFS suggest the front on Sunday will weaken as it moves inland, thus limiting the amount of precipitation, especially inland away from the coast and coastal mountains. This is also being supported by the ensembles and individual ensemble members.

The pattern will become more active Monday through Wednesday as an upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska drops over the forecast area with multiple systems moving through. The exact timing this far out will likely change over time. However we are confident they will be continued cool and wet. Not only the operational ECMWF and GFS show this, but so do the individual ensemble members of the ECMWF and GEFS. Precipitation amounts during this time are not expected to be significant at any one time during this period which will help to limit road snow concerns, especially during the daylight hours. Some snow will accumulate at night for the higher passes and possibly the lower passes on I-5 between Grants Pass and Canyonville. However, since its early to mid March, the longer daylight hours and higher sun angle should result in little or no road snow for the lower passes at least during the daytime. -Petrucelli

AVIATION . For the 04/12Z TAF Cycle . A strong, slow moving frontal system will affect the area through this TAF period with moderate to strong southeast to south winds, strongest along and west of the coast, through south to north oriented valleys such as the Shasta Valley, and across the higher terrain. Low level wind shear will occur in some areas, at times, particularly along and near the coast, and some low level turbulence should be generally expected. Well mixed low level conditions are likely to limit low level wind shear potential across the area during the afternoon to evening, however.

MVFR ceilings are occuring in the Roseburg area of the Umpqua Basin this morning and are also possible along and near the coast. However, VFR is expected for land areas along the coast from 04/18Z through 05/09Z. VFR is expected to prevail across most of the area through the TAF period. However, southerly upslope conditions are likely to yield IFR to MVFR ceilings and mountain obscurations south of the Scott and Shasta Valleys, generally on and south of the Mount Shasta and Marble Mountains areas. ~BTL

MARINE . Updated 515 AM PST Thursday 04 Mar 2021 . Strong gales and periods of storm force winds are expected this afternoon into Friday morning along with very steep wind driven combined seas peaking in the 17 to 27 foot range. While storm conditions should remain beyond 10 nm from shore, storm force gusts are possible elsewhere, especially in the vicinity of headlands and capes. The highest combined sea heights are most likely to occur about 20NM west of Bandon and the lowest along and near protected portions of the coast.

Wave models have been indicating the possibility of a west-northwest swell peaking in the 13 to 19 foot by 16 second range Sunday into Monday. Thereafter, seas are expected to fall to below 10 feet on or about Tuesday. ~BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ029>031. High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. High Surf Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for ORZ026.

CA . Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ084-085. High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 61 mi44 min SSE 32 G 42 54°F 48°F1018.3 hPa
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 68 mi56 min S 4.1 G 13 1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR7 mi36 minS 10 G 1710.00 miFair52°F25°F35%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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1 day ago4CalmNW4Calm6N6N5N4N3SW3S5S6S7S8SE8SE8SE8SE8SE6SE85463
2 days ago3CalmN3NW5N7N8--N8N8N8N6N8N5E5SE6SE3SE9SE8--SE8SE7534

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 03:01 AM PST     7.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:58 AM PST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:07 PM PST     5.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:34 PM PST     2.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.35.76.77.16.75.84.42.91.50.60.30.71.62.73.94.754.94.33.52.72.32.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM PST     7.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM PST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:57 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 PM PST     5.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.47.57.97.56.44.83.11.60.60.40.81.83.14.35.25.65.44.73.832.62.63.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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