Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamburg, NY
 | Sunrise 7:40 AM Sunset 5:12 PM Moonrise 8:53 AM Moonset 7:17 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
LEZ041 Expires:202601192200;;161728 Fzus51 Kbuf 191503 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am est Mon jan 19 2026
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-192200- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1003 am est Mon jan 19 2026
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning - .
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Tuesday morning - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales this afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers late this morning, then lake effect snow this afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight - West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tuesday - West winds to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Lake effect snow. Waves 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday - South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday - West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am est Mon jan 19 2026
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-192200- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1003 am est Mon jan 19 2026
LEZ005
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KBUF 200033 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 733 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Latest forecast update increased snowfall totals off Lake Erie in a narrow strip from southwest Erie County northeast across central Erie County, including some of the Buffalo Southtowns. Storm totals may reach 2-3 feet in a narrow band where the heavy snow persists the longest.
Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled for Niagara and Orleans counties. Heavy lake effect snow will remain south of these areas for the remainder of the event.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario counties through 10PM Tuesday. The eastern end of the Lake Erie band will bring occasional moderate snow and blowing snow through Tuesday evening with localized moderate accumulations.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday.
2) Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and evening while gradually weakening in the process.
3) Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.
4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday.
The arctic front as passed as of early this evening, with falling temperatures and ongoing heavy lake effect snow.
Off of Lake Erie...
The lake snow was disrupted by the passage of the arctic front earlier this afternoon, but has since re-organized and intensified, with a band of heavy snow stretching from near Silver Creek/Angola northeast across the Boston Hills and more distant Buffalo Southtowns into northern Wyoming and southern Genesee counties.
Expect the band of heaviest snow to oscillate north-south multiple times overnight through Tuesday with subtle changes in boundary layer flow, with the band position moving by 10-15 miles at times.
North of the main band, a broader area of light snow showers will continue through the first half of the night from Buffalo to northern Genesee county with additional light accumulations.
The eastern end of the band is being carried far inland this evening, and this will continue at times overnight through Tuesday with occasional bursts of moderate snow extending into portions of Monroe County and the western Finger Lakes. Expect localized 3-5" of additional accumulation, with the greatest amounts across southern Monroe, northern Livingston, and northwest Ontario counties.
Overall...the greatest snowfall amounts still looks to be across the Buffalo Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora) and southern Erie County, into western Wyoming County where snow amounts will likely reach 2-3 feet, especially in a narrow band from Evans/Angola to the more distant southern suburbs of Buffalo in central Erie County. Outside of these areas, a solid 6 to 12 inches is possible for extreme northwest Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and the southern portion of Genesee County. The northern edge of the band may occasionally clip South Buffalo/Lackawanna and some of the eastern suburbs overnight.
Off of Lake Ontario...
The main band of lake effect snow will continue to organize across northern Jefferson County this evening, then settle south across Watertown to the Tug Hill Plateau late evening through the early overnight and continue to intensify. A secondary area of heavy snow will also continue across the Tug Hill Plateau this evening prior to the arrival of the main band, from a combination of the eastern end of the Lake Erie band and upslope flow.
Late tonight through Tuesday the band of heavy snow will hit max intensity and focus on southern Jefferson County and the central Tug Hill Plateau most of the time. Expect a few subtle north-south oscillations at times with minor changes in boundary layer flow.
This may occasionally brush Watertown in the north end, and far northern Oswego County on the south end of the oscillations.
Snowfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour will be likely with the lake band off of Lake Ontario as impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium heights develop and as the lake band takes advantage of the long fetch over the lake. Total snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 feet will be possible in the most persistent bands, most likely across southern Jefferson County into the central Tug Hill Plateau.
Wind chills will bottom out overnight through Tuesday morning 15 to 20 below zero across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, and 10 to 15 below elsewhere. Only modest improvement Tuesday afternoon, with below zero wind chills lasting through early Wednesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and evening while gradually weakening in the process.
Winds will begin to back to the southwest Tuesday evening then south late Tuesday night in response to the upstream trough nearing the region. This will begin the process of shifting lake snows back north as we head into early Wednesday morning
Even so
we will still see some accumulating snows overnight into Wednesday morning.
However...there remain some uncertainty as to how intense the bands off both lakes be as the shift occurs northward, especially off Lake Erie. It is quite possible some locales could pick up a few inches with the northward jog before the band dissipates all together on Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.
A shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes Wednesday, with a warm front ahead of a surface low bringing widespread snow to our region through the day. Convergent lift ahead of a 50 to 60 knot LLJ will support a period of snow for our region ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive later in the day. NBM probabilities of 3 inches or more of snow favors the higher terrain east of both Lakes (Boston/Wyoming Hills and Tug Hill) with perhaps overall snow total reaching advisory levels.
Models keep the core of this strong LLJ within the warm sector of this storm system, with poor mixing likely to keep winds from gusting strong at the surface through the day, though with the cold front passage in the evening, and with better mixing, could see a few gusts reach 45 mph northeast of both lakes.
Behind this front lake effect snow is expected east of both Lakes.
While decent moisture remains Thursday, drier air arrives in the mid levels that will weaken the Lake Erie band by Friday...and later the Lake Ontario band of snow. Increasing ice coverage on Lake Erie will also influence the snowband...keeping the higher probabilities for potential warning level snows east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill.
As winds lighten lake snowbands will contract back to the the lakes within an increasing colder airmass Friday and Saturday...with light flurries or snow showers south of Lake Ontario Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.
An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward across Canada this week...with the cold air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will fall to the mid negative 20s Friday night through Sunday ahead of this surface high. A bitterly cold weekend with highs in the single digits, and overnight lows well below zero. Could even see air temperatures reach the negative 20s overnight near Watertown both Friday night and Saturday night if skies clear. A light wind will support the likelihood for extreme cold headlines for this weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Intense lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday. VSBY will be near zero at times within the heaviest lake effect snow bands.
Off Lake Erie, the band of heavy snow will remain mostly south of KBUF and north of KJHW most of the time through mid afternoon Tuesday. Lighter snow showers outside of the main band along with blowing snow will continue to bring occasional IFR to KBUF and KJHW, but VSBY will remain above minimums. The eastern end of the band will bring occasional moderate snow and blowing snow to KROC this evening, then stay mainly south and west of there overnight through Tuesday.
Off Lake Ontario, the band of heavy snow will drift south across KART and KGTB this evening with near zero VSBY at times. Overnight through Tuesday, the band will focus across the central Tug Hill Plateau south of KART and KGTB, with just a few light snow showers clipping those airfields at times north of the main band.
The worst of the winds will end by mid evening, with gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range overnight through Tuesday. Still enough to cause some blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibility on airfields, but not to the extent of earlier today.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Snow showers increase in coverage areawide with cold front. IFR or below at times.
Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas within snow showers.
Friday and Saturday.. MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect snow showers.
MARINE
West-southwest gales will continue on Lake Erie tonight, and on Lake Ontario through Tuesday evening with sustained winds in the 35-40 knot range.
Heavy Freezing Spray will be a concern during the period of gales. A heavy freezing spray warning remains for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid ice accretion on vessels.
South-southwest winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will remain elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air spreads in.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ003-013- 014.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008- 010-011.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019- 020-085.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ012- 019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045- 062>065.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 733 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Latest forecast update increased snowfall totals off Lake Erie in a narrow strip from southwest Erie County northeast across central Erie County, including some of the Buffalo Southtowns. Storm totals may reach 2-3 feet in a narrow band where the heavy snow persists the longest.
Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled for Niagara and Orleans counties. Heavy lake effect snow will remain south of these areas for the remainder of the event.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario counties through 10PM Tuesday. The eastern end of the Lake Erie band will bring occasional moderate snow and blowing snow through Tuesday evening with localized moderate accumulations.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday.
2) Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and evening while gradually weakening in the process.
3) Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.
4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday.
The arctic front as passed as of early this evening, with falling temperatures and ongoing heavy lake effect snow.
Off of Lake Erie...
The lake snow was disrupted by the passage of the arctic front earlier this afternoon, but has since re-organized and intensified, with a band of heavy snow stretching from near Silver Creek/Angola northeast across the Boston Hills and more distant Buffalo Southtowns into northern Wyoming and southern Genesee counties.
Expect the band of heaviest snow to oscillate north-south multiple times overnight through Tuesday with subtle changes in boundary layer flow, with the band position moving by 10-15 miles at times.
North of the main band, a broader area of light snow showers will continue through the first half of the night from Buffalo to northern Genesee county with additional light accumulations.
The eastern end of the band is being carried far inland this evening, and this will continue at times overnight through Tuesday with occasional bursts of moderate snow extending into portions of Monroe County and the western Finger Lakes. Expect localized 3-5" of additional accumulation, with the greatest amounts across southern Monroe, northern Livingston, and northwest Ontario counties.
Overall...the greatest snowfall amounts still looks to be across the Buffalo Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora) and southern Erie County, into western Wyoming County where snow amounts will likely reach 2-3 feet, especially in a narrow band from Evans/Angola to the more distant southern suburbs of Buffalo in central Erie County. Outside of these areas, a solid 6 to 12 inches is possible for extreme northwest Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and the southern portion of Genesee County. The northern edge of the band may occasionally clip South Buffalo/Lackawanna and some of the eastern suburbs overnight.
Off of Lake Ontario...
The main band of lake effect snow will continue to organize across northern Jefferson County this evening, then settle south across Watertown to the Tug Hill Plateau late evening through the early overnight and continue to intensify. A secondary area of heavy snow will also continue across the Tug Hill Plateau this evening prior to the arrival of the main band, from a combination of the eastern end of the Lake Erie band and upslope flow.
Late tonight through Tuesday the band of heavy snow will hit max intensity and focus on southern Jefferson County and the central Tug Hill Plateau most of the time. Expect a few subtle north-south oscillations at times with minor changes in boundary layer flow.
This may occasionally brush Watertown in the north end, and far northern Oswego County on the south end of the oscillations.
Snowfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour will be likely with the lake band off of Lake Ontario as impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium heights develop and as the lake band takes advantage of the long fetch over the lake. Total snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 feet will be possible in the most persistent bands, most likely across southern Jefferson County into the central Tug Hill Plateau.
Wind chills will bottom out overnight through Tuesday morning 15 to 20 below zero across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, and 10 to 15 below elsewhere. Only modest improvement Tuesday afternoon, with below zero wind chills lasting through early Wednesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake snows move north late Tuesday afternoon and evening while gradually weakening in the process.
Winds will begin to back to the southwest Tuesday evening then south late Tuesday night in response to the upstream trough nearing the region. This will begin the process of shifting lake snows back north as we head into early Wednesday morning
Even so
we will still see some accumulating snows overnight into Wednesday morning.
However...there remain some uncertainty as to how intense the bands off both lakes be as the shift occurs northward, especially off Lake Erie. It is quite possible some locales could pick up a few inches with the northward jog before the band dissipates all together on Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.
A shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes Wednesday, with a warm front ahead of a surface low bringing widespread snow to our region through the day. Convergent lift ahead of a 50 to 60 knot LLJ will support a period of snow for our region ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive later in the day. NBM probabilities of 3 inches or more of snow favors the higher terrain east of both Lakes (Boston/Wyoming Hills and Tug Hill) with perhaps overall snow total reaching advisory levels.
Models keep the core of this strong LLJ within the warm sector of this storm system, with poor mixing likely to keep winds from gusting strong at the surface through the day, though with the cold front passage in the evening, and with better mixing, could see a few gusts reach 45 mph northeast of both lakes.
Behind this front lake effect snow is expected east of both Lakes.
While decent moisture remains Thursday, drier air arrives in the mid levels that will weaken the Lake Erie band by Friday...and later the Lake Ontario band of snow. Increasing ice coverage on Lake Erie will also influence the snowband...keeping the higher probabilities for potential warning level snows east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill.
As winds lighten lake snowbands will contract back to the the lakes within an increasing colder airmass Friday and Saturday...with light flurries or snow showers south of Lake Ontario Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.
An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward across Canada this week...with the cold air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will fall to the mid negative 20s Friday night through Sunday ahead of this surface high. A bitterly cold weekend with highs in the single digits, and overnight lows well below zero. Could even see air temperatures reach the negative 20s overnight near Watertown both Friday night and Saturday night if skies clear. A light wind will support the likelihood for extreme cold headlines for this weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Intense lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday. VSBY will be near zero at times within the heaviest lake effect snow bands.
Off Lake Erie, the band of heavy snow will remain mostly south of KBUF and north of KJHW most of the time through mid afternoon Tuesday. Lighter snow showers outside of the main band along with blowing snow will continue to bring occasional IFR to KBUF and KJHW, but VSBY will remain above minimums. The eastern end of the band will bring occasional moderate snow and blowing snow to KROC this evening, then stay mainly south and west of there overnight through Tuesday.
Off Lake Ontario, the band of heavy snow will drift south across KART and KGTB this evening with near zero VSBY at times. Overnight through Tuesday, the band will focus across the central Tug Hill Plateau south of KART and KGTB, with just a few light snow showers clipping those airfields at times north of the main band.
The worst of the winds will end by mid evening, with gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range overnight through Tuesday. Still enough to cause some blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibility on airfields, but not to the extent of earlier today.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Snow showers increase in coverage areawide with cold front. IFR or below at times.
Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas within snow showers.
Friday and Saturday.. MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect snow showers.
MARINE
West-southwest gales will continue on Lake Erie tonight, and on Lake Ontario through Tuesday evening with sustained winds in the 35-40 knot range.
Heavy Freezing Spray will be a concern during the period of gales. A heavy freezing spray warning remains for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid ice accretion on vessels.
South-southwest winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will remain elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air spreads in.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ003-013- 014.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008- 010-011.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019- 020-085.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ012- 019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045- 062>065.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 11 mi | 56 min | W 20G | 30.05 | ||||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 12 mi | 56 min | 30.05 | |||||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 27 mi | 56 min | 30.06 | |||||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 32 mi | 44 min | SW 15G | 30.12 | ||||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 43 mi | 44 min | WSW 21G | 13°F | 29.78 |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBUF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBUF
Wind History Graph: BUF
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GEOS Local Image of north east
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