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FXUS66 KMFR 072241 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 241 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
Showers are slowly becoming less numerous and lighter in nature this afternoon. With the more northwesterly flow the bulk of the precipitation, especially snow, will be in the Oregon Cascades, tapering off to light showers later tonight.
Showers south of the Siskiyous and east of the Cascades area tapering off already and the timing of ending the advisories in these areas later this afternoon looks on track.

As we head into Friday the 700 mb flow weakens and becomes northwesterly as the upper trough shifts east and a weak upper ridge builds in from the west. These winds then become northerly cutting off the moisture influx and ending the showers Friday afternoon.

This weak upper ridge then shifts east with a weak front approaching the coast late Saturday night. -Sven

LONG TERM
As high pressure flattens and moves east, precip will be increasing from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning with rain chances for the Cascades and west increasing from 30 percent Curry Coast and Umpqua, and around 60 percent Coos Coast, to 70-90 percent coast and Umpqua and 40 percent around and south of Medford into afternoon. This will be a low-end qpf event comparatively to recent storms, and short-lived as showers will taper off Sunday night into Monday morning in NW flow aloft. Ridging will take hold Monday into Tuesday with mainly dry weather on tap through the week.
Fairly moderate uncertainty with a potential graze of 30-40 percent rain chances across the coast and Umpqua Wednesday night through Thursday. Otherwise the mid to late week period will see some warming aloft and some night and morning into early afternoon fog conditions for the inland valleys. Some of this fog in the Rogue Valley and south will be of the freezing variety. Lows over the east side will be around 15-20 degrees with colder pockets. Looks wet again next weekend with the NBM indicating a 40-50% chance of 6 inches of snow across the Cascades near Crater Lake and Willamette Pass. Stavish

AVIATION
07/00Z TAFs...Behind a front, freezing level will be around 2000 feet. A trailing low pressure system will bring a couple of thunderstorms over the coastal waters to near shore into the early evening, especially north of Cape Blanco. Meantime, the enhanced precipitation will increase coverage of MVFR and mountain obscuration this morning into the early evening. This includes moderate snowfall over the higher terrain of the west side to the Cascades, and light snow across the east side. Thus, potential impacts include snowfall at Klamath Falls and thunderstorms at North Bend.

An interlude of intermittent light showers and diminished probability of coastal thunderstorms is expected behind the front from late afternoon into early evening. But, an additional weaker disturbance is expected to bring another uptick in shower and MVFR ceiling coverage from around 06Z this evening into Friday morning (especially for the coast and Douglas County). Elsewhere, late tonight into Friday morning, mainly in the remainder of southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County, there is a lower probability of showers but increased probability of valley IFR/LIFR developing.
-DW/Schaaf

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Thursday December 7, 2023...A trailing low pressure behind a cold front which has moved inland already will bring moderate winds and showers, but high and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. Isolated thunderstorms are expected into this evening, with the highest probability north of Cape Blanco. These could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts.

Winds and seas will briefly diminish Friday into early Saturday as high pressure builds in. The next frontal system arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with an initial front focused north of our area Saturday then a stronger disturbance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas are expected with a 40 percent chance of gales north of Cape Arago.

A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds into Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Tuesday. But, conditions are likely to briefly improve at mid- week with an active pattern resuming late in the week. -DW/Schaaf



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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