Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE as 110 PM EDT
A frontal boundary is stationary over eastern NY and southwest New England early this afternoon.
High pressure remains off Maine Coast. Mid and high clouds have increase from the I-90 corridor north and east. Some lower and mid clouds continue to increase south and west. Some showers are moving toward the southeast Catskills and mid Hudson Valley. No measure able pcpn has been noted yet in the NYS Mesonet in the ALY forecast area. A few hundredths have been noted on the southern tier. Temps are on track with filtered sunshine with max temps warming above normal into the mid and upper 70s in the valleys and mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain.


PREV DISCUSSION
A large upper level low center over the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon, will slowly track northward into the lower Ohio Valley by evening. Ridging aloft over northern NY and New England will keep most of the widespread/heavier rainfall associated with the upper low suppressed to our south. However, with surface high pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes, there will be a strengthening low level SE onshore flow resulting in gradually increasing moisture through tonight. Clouds will tend to thicken from SW to NE late this afternoon. Highs expected to reach the mid/upper 70s for most valley locations. Not much change in the pattern tonight, with scattered showers south/west of Albany. It will be mild with lows in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As the aforementioned upper low drifts northward across the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes regions, diffluent flow aloft will result in additional showers across our on Wed.
Guidance now in better agreement regarding a likely period of showers developing, as strengthening SE low level flow (v-component wind anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) results in a further increase in deep layer moisture (PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV). So will mention likely PoPs for most areas south of Albany (categorical E. Catskills) through much of the day. Showers should be isolated/scattered in coverage from around Albany north with upper level ridging still hanging on. With more extensive cloud cover and showers around, high temperatures will be cooler than recent days, with 60s to lower 70s.

The upper low is forecast to become a more progressive open wave through Wed night. So while it will be weakening, the trough axis looks to be positioned just south/west of our area, bringing some additional showers with anomalous moisture still in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV). The highest PoPs (likely) are for areas south/east of Albany and mainly through the first half of the night. Rainfall amounts Wed-Wed night don't look overly impressive with around 0.10" to less than 0.75" south of Albany. This amount of rainfall will not result in any significant hydrologic responses. Low temperatures will be mild again with mainly mid to upper 50s.

The weakening upper level trough axis moves northeast across our area on Thu, bringing widely scattered showers but not a washout. Guidance is showing some minor instability due to breaks of sunshine developing, so will add a slight chance of thunder. Shear/forcing look weak so any T-storms should be non- severe. It will start to feel somewhat humid, with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s in valley areas. High temperatures look to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. It should be mainly dry Thu night, with short wave ridging building in from the west.
Lows will continue to be mild (mid 50s to around 60F).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- Moderate confidence in unsettled weather Friday into the weekend with intermittent bouts of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Discussion:

A warm front approaches from the south and west associated with a mid and upper level trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Region. The warm front and an embedded short-wave brings a chance of showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Some weak elevated instability is present for the thunderstorms. The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms diminish overnight.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

The upcoming weekend continues to be unsettled based on the latest NBM, WPC, ensembles and medium range model guidance. Another short- wave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley and a cold front with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. If enough heating and instability occurs a few of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side. Highs will be above normal and similar to Saturday with mid 70s to around 80F for elevations below 1000 feet and mid 60s to lower 70s with moderate humidity levels. The scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish Sat night with lows in the 50s. Post frontal cold advection and brisk conditions are expected to close the weekend. Cyclonic flow will persist aloft with isolated to scattered showers. Lows will fall into the 60s to lower/mid 70s with some upper 50s over the western Dacks.

The upper level low slowly moves east of the region Sunday night into Monday with isolated to scattered showers persisting especially north and west of the Capital Region. A return to drier weather with northwest flow aloft and some ridging builds in from the northwest with temps near to slightly to below normal.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will continue until about 00Z/WED for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with a frontal boundary near eastern NY and western New England and an upper level low to the south with high pressure off the Maine Coast. Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. Some MVFR clouds and a few light showers will be near KPOU around 00Z/WED. The cloud bases will continue to thicken and lower tonight, as some showers/light rain will develop along the boundary with the onshore flow interacting with the frontal boundary. Cigs/vsbys will lower to low MVFR/IFR levels initially at KPOU prior to 06Z/WED, then expect widespread IFR conditions with light rain and drizzle to impact that TAF site between 06Z-12Z/WED and continue into the afternoon. Further north, MVFR stratus will impact KALB/KPSF 06Z-12Z/WED with some PROB30 groups used to usher showers in for KPSF into the late afternoon. We used a VCSH group for KALB.
KGFL located furthest north may stay VFR until late in the TAF cycle when MVFR stratus moves in towards noon.

The winds will be east to southeast at around 10 KT this afternoon with a few gusts 15-20 KT. The winds will decrease from the east to southeast at mainly 7 KT or less overnight, and will be light at less than 10 KT from the late morning into the afternoon from the northeast to southeast.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.