Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Morris, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Drying weather early this week ahead of an unsettled weather pattern starting late Wednesday continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Drying weather early this week ahead of an unsettled weather pattern starting late Wednesday continuing into the weekend.

GOES satellite imagery shows the beginning of clearing skies entering western NY while lingering showers move across the eastern Lake Ontario region. These showers will continue into the north country this afternoon as the surface low from yesterday's system continues to slowly progress northeastward through southern Quebec.
High pressure will build into western NY Tuesday promoting drier weather through midweek and gradual warming back to near-normal temperatures for early August.

A large scale troughing pattern will move into central Canada centered over the western Hudson Bay by midweek with multiple shortwaves passing in the flow across the northern CONUS. This will result in an unsettled weather pattern developing late Wednesday with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing into the weekend. As the early week high pressure center moves off the Atlantic coast Wednesday, southerly flow will begin to return moisture to the area ahead of a cold front that may stall across the Great Lakes region late in the week. At this time, flow appears to be on the weaker side limiting more robust organized convection, but PWAT values return towards 1.5-1.7" that could be supportive of more chances for heavy rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Flying conditions will continue to improve this afternoon as drier high pressure moves in from the west. MVFR conditions are still holding on from around Rochester and to the north and east. In the next hour to two hours, VFR conditions will return here as well, with skies becoming mostly clear everywhere before sunset.

With a clear and mostly calm night expected, strong radiational cooling, and very saturated ground conditons will lead to areas of fog developing across the southern tier, with patchier fog likely over the Niagara frontier and over the North Country.
Visibilities of 2-3 sm are possible at Jamestown and other valley locations in the Southern Tier. Across the Niagara frontier, coverage will likely be more patchy, and generally 3-4 miles, but some isolated dense areas of fog are possible given the extremely saturated ground conditions. Similar conditons are expected across the North Country. Soon after sunrise, VFR conditions will return across the region, with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected the rest of tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, however afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk for MVFR or below conditions at times.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories continue this afternoon and evening along Lake Ontario with northwest winds gusting up around 25 kt turning westerly later today. As the surface low continues to track northeast across southern Quebec, surface pressure gradients will begin to relax this evening as winds begin to calm towards Tuesday morning. High pressure will build into the lower Great Lakes Tuesday before unsettled weather returns later in the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ001>003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045.