Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Morris, NY
February 18, 2025 8:25 PM EST (01:25 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:03 AM Sunset 5:49 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 9:24 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 931 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2025
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of today - West winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tonight - West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then occasional lake effect snow overnight. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 34 degrees.
the water temperature off rochester is 34 degrees.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190048 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 748 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
Heavy lake effect snow will continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario through Wednesday morning. A weak low pressure wave will bring a chance for light snow Thursday. Meanwhile a cold air mass will remain in place this week, followed by a slight warming trend for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Arctic airmass over the region through tonight, with 850 mb temperatures around -20C. This will maintain plenty of over-lake instability, and cyclonic flow aloft and periodic shortwaves will provide ample synoptic moisture to produce lake effect snow. Subtle upstream lake connections will also play a role in enhancing the downstream lake snows.
This evening, radar shows the main lake effect band extending from central Lake Ontario across northern Cayuga and southern Oswego counties. The band extends at least back across Lake Huron with this moisture enhancement likely to support snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour.
Mesoscale guidance and wind fields suggest the band will meander roughly in place through early this evening. After this, a slight southward shift is expected late this evening and tonight. This is when the band is most likely to impact far northern portions from Orleans to Wayne counties, while it mainly drops south of Oswego County
The band will remain intense during most of this time
finally weakening Wednesday morning when an inversion gradually lowers to 5k feet and cuts off the deeper moisture. However, it will still be cold enough beneath the inversion to support some lake snows throughout the day.
Additional snow accumulations from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will peak across far northern Wayne/Cayuga and far southern Oswego counties where an additional 12 to 18 inches are expected. An additional 6 to 10 inches is expected across far northern Orleans and Monroe counties, with intense snows remaining mainly north of downtown Rochester. Lower confidence in Niagara County forecast, where far northern areas could get clipped by 3 to 6 inches with little accumulation from Niagara Falls to Lockport southward.
Elsewhere, it will continue to be very cold with below zero wind chills lasting from this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Lows tonight ranging from the single digits to as cold as 10 below east of Lake Ontario. However winds will not be as elevated, so wind chills will not be quite as cold as last night. Even so, it will still be bitterly cold with wind chills 5 below to 15 below. Highs Wednesday will be in the teens, but it will be less windy.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A potent midlevel trough and closed low will have its positively orientated axis lying across the Great Lakes Wednesday night. This trough and low will dive southeast and then east across the Ohio Valley Thursday before pulling northeast into the northern Atlantic Thursday night. Initially, ongoing lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday night will become more widespread as the mid-level low tracks east from Ohio to the southern coast of New Jersey, height falls aloft and associated synoptic moisture circulates around the low. Overall, expect a couple of inches of snow, with lesser snowfall totals expected across the North Country due to the greater distance from the low.
In the wake of the low, cold northwest flow combined with lingering moisture will support a limited lake effect/upslope snow response Thursday night.
Brief mid-level ridging wil build across the region Friday, introducing warm and dry air into the region, thus resulting in the lake effect snow showers to peter out and shift northeast of Lake Ontario by Friday night.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The next broad longwave trough will move across northern Ontario and dig south across Quebec over the weekend and linger through the start of next week. With the longwave trough overhead, multiple shortwaves will pass southeast across the region throughout the period. PoPs remain on the lower side as there is poor agreement amongst the long range guidance on the timing of this feature, as well as a few weak shortwave ripples that will likely be embedded within this trough. There are enough signals that a more potent system may then descend on the area from the Upper Midwest later Monday into Tuesday to warrant higher chances for precip.
Temperatures may warm enough by this point to lead to some rain or a wintry mix, though confidence remains low in this potential.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
While the vast majority of the region will experience VFR conditions tonight...moderate to heavy lake effect snow with IFR to LIFR conditions will persist southeast of Lake Ontario. This will primarily impact northern Cayuga county and southern Oswego county.
Lake snows will weaken Wednesday morning but a lowering inversion likely to lower cloud decks to MVFR at most locations. Otherwise VFR weather ill be found elsewhere.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR.
Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.
Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
MARINE
Elevated westerly flow in the wake of the departing low will generate high-end small craft advisory conditions on both Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through for much of tonight. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight into Wednesday.
A period of elevated northwest winds will develop on Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday with marginal small craft conditions developing.
Periods of 15-20 knots southwesterly winds are possible this weekend.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020-040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 748 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
Heavy lake effect snow will continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario through Wednesday morning. A weak low pressure wave will bring a chance for light snow Thursday. Meanwhile a cold air mass will remain in place this week, followed by a slight warming trend for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Arctic airmass over the region through tonight, with 850 mb temperatures around -20C. This will maintain plenty of over-lake instability, and cyclonic flow aloft and periodic shortwaves will provide ample synoptic moisture to produce lake effect snow. Subtle upstream lake connections will also play a role in enhancing the downstream lake snows.
This evening, radar shows the main lake effect band extending from central Lake Ontario across northern Cayuga and southern Oswego counties. The band extends at least back across Lake Huron with this moisture enhancement likely to support snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour.
Mesoscale guidance and wind fields suggest the band will meander roughly in place through early this evening. After this, a slight southward shift is expected late this evening and tonight. This is when the band is most likely to impact far northern portions from Orleans to Wayne counties, while it mainly drops south of Oswego County
The band will remain intense during most of this time
finally weakening Wednesday morning when an inversion gradually lowers to 5k feet and cuts off the deeper moisture. However, it will still be cold enough beneath the inversion to support some lake snows throughout the day.
Additional snow accumulations from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will peak across far northern Wayne/Cayuga and far southern Oswego counties where an additional 12 to 18 inches are expected. An additional 6 to 10 inches is expected across far northern Orleans and Monroe counties, with intense snows remaining mainly north of downtown Rochester. Lower confidence in Niagara County forecast, where far northern areas could get clipped by 3 to 6 inches with little accumulation from Niagara Falls to Lockport southward.
Elsewhere, it will continue to be very cold with below zero wind chills lasting from this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Lows tonight ranging from the single digits to as cold as 10 below east of Lake Ontario. However winds will not be as elevated, so wind chills will not be quite as cold as last night. Even so, it will still be bitterly cold with wind chills 5 below to 15 below. Highs Wednesday will be in the teens, but it will be less windy.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A potent midlevel trough and closed low will have its positively orientated axis lying across the Great Lakes Wednesday night. This trough and low will dive southeast and then east across the Ohio Valley Thursday before pulling northeast into the northern Atlantic Thursday night. Initially, ongoing lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday night will become more widespread as the mid-level low tracks east from Ohio to the southern coast of New Jersey, height falls aloft and associated synoptic moisture circulates around the low. Overall, expect a couple of inches of snow, with lesser snowfall totals expected across the North Country due to the greater distance from the low.
In the wake of the low, cold northwest flow combined with lingering moisture will support a limited lake effect/upslope snow response Thursday night.
Brief mid-level ridging wil build across the region Friday, introducing warm and dry air into the region, thus resulting in the lake effect snow showers to peter out and shift northeast of Lake Ontario by Friday night.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The next broad longwave trough will move across northern Ontario and dig south across Quebec over the weekend and linger through the start of next week. With the longwave trough overhead, multiple shortwaves will pass southeast across the region throughout the period. PoPs remain on the lower side as there is poor agreement amongst the long range guidance on the timing of this feature, as well as a few weak shortwave ripples that will likely be embedded within this trough. There are enough signals that a more potent system may then descend on the area from the Upper Midwest later Monday into Tuesday to warrant higher chances for precip.
Temperatures may warm enough by this point to lead to some rain or a wintry mix, though confidence remains low in this potential.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
While the vast majority of the region will experience VFR conditions tonight...moderate to heavy lake effect snow with IFR to LIFR conditions will persist southeast of Lake Ontario. This will primarily impact northern Cayuga county and southern Oswego county.
Lake snows will weaken Wednesday morning but a lowering inversion likely to lower cloud decks to MVFR at most locations. Otherwise VFR weather ill be found elsewhere.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR.
Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.
Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
MARINE
Elevated westerly flow in the wake of the departing low will generate high-end small craft advisory conditions on both Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through for much of tonight. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight into Wednesday.
A period of elevated northwest winds will develop on Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday with marginal small craft conditions developing.
Periods of 15-20 knots southwesterly winds are possible this weekend.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020-040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 39 mi | 55 min | 16°F |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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