Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wanakah, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Radar imagery this morning depicts the next batch of rain showers crossing Lake Erie towards WNY, with the more vigorous activity across the New York/Pennsylvania border. These showers are being supporting by a frontal boundary lying across Pennsylvania this morning. A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes today, supporting a baroclinic zone/surface low to ride east/northeast across the boundary, bringing the boundary across the region. This will cause the showers to continue for much of the day today and gradually shift northeast into the eastern Lake Ontario region, however the majority of the activity will lie across the southern portions of the state. Amounts today will range between another quarter of and inch to up to a half of an inch across the southern Finger Lakes. With the region being socked in clouds today due to the shower activity and the temperatures aloft cooling, temperatures to day will be on the cooler side with highs ranging in the 40s with a few low 50s possible along the lakeshores.

As the surface low tracks east-northeast today, reaching Cape Cod by Monday morning, showers will continue to linger across the area due to a combination of wrap around moisture from the exiting surface low and the shortwave trough axis lying overhead. Lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain and the low 40s across the lower elevations.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level low centered near northern Maine will maintain a cool northwesterly flow which will result in periodic lake effect showers during the period. 850 mb temps will be between -3C and -6C which is cold enough for some wet snow to mix in at times across higher terrain.

Steadier showers during the first half of Monday will taper off some as a shortwave trough exits east into New England. The lull in lake effect activity will only last until Tuesday morning, then the next shortwave trough will pivot across the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The northwest flow will result in fairly disorganized lake enhanced showers, mainly located southeast of the lakes. While lower elevations may see a the first snowflakes of the season, any snow accumulation will be limited to higher terrain.
This would mainly be Tuesday night, with only minor accumulations of less than 2 inches.

Lake effect showers will be hit and miss, but cloud cover will persist due to the cool and moist flow aloft. This will limit diurnal temperature ranges and keep daytime highs in the 40s and nighttime lows in the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
There may be some lingering lake effect rain or snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. After this, there will be a pronounced drying and warming trend.

Noticeable changes in our weather pattern really start to take shape Thursday as the main upper level trough axis exits to the east with ridging across the upper Midwest continuing to build east into the upper Great Lakes. Last of any lingering shower activity should quickly diminish through Thursday morning as expansive high pressure surface and aloft builds east into the eastern Great Lakes, setting the stage for a nice stretch of dry weather and a day-to-day warming trend that will last through at least the first half of next weekend.

Wednesday night will probably be the coldest for the week since there will finally be breaks in the cloud cover. This will allow for radiational cooling and potentially frost at many locations.
Otherwise there will be day to day warming with highs in the 50s Thursday warming into the 60s by Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The next batch of rain is crossing Lake Erie towards WNY with the better/moderate precipitation lying across New York/Pennsylvania border. These showers and clouds in their wake have caused reduction to ceilings and visibilities. This being said, areas across the northern portions of the region (KIAG, KBUF and KROC) are currently VFR, though ceilings are low end VFR and will drop to MVFR.
Meanwhile, towards the NYS border, KJHW has LIFR conditions due to ceilings and limited visibility.

Today and tonight, showers will continue across much of the area, especially for the areas south of Lake Ontario. Overall this will continue the low end MVFR and IFR ceilings for all TAF sites, with IFR conditions expected for KJHW for much of today and tonight.
Outside of the cloud ceilings, visibilities will also be reduced to MVFR due to steadier showers. This being said, IFR visibilities will be possible with heavier showers. While showers will lighten up later today and tonight, they will not diminish completely.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers likely.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will slide east across the area today, causing winds to elevate in its wake producing a period of Small Craft Advisories on Lake Erie today and the start of a prolonged period of Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario due to active weather continuing through the start of the new work week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for LEZ041.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Monday for LOZ045.