Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wanakah, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 112215 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 515 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A lake effect snow band will move south through this evening, with snow ending late this evening east of Lake Erie, and Thursday morning off Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather later Thursday through Friday. Low pressure moving northward along the east coast will then bring rain and warmer temperatures to the region Friday night through Saturday, with rain changing back to snow Sunday as colder air moves back into the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. The main lake effect band east of Lake Erie continues to move ESE and will lose its connection fairly quickly this evening. Until this happens, impressive snow rates of 1-3"/hr are possible, although most areas will only see snow for about an hour or so. There is another weaker band with some upstream ties that will move ESE across far WNY, but impacts will be low.

Over Lake Ontario, one band with an upstream connection to Lake Erie is moving fairly quickly into the Tug Hill, while the main Lake Ontario band is finally in full bloom near KART.

In addition to lake snow, many areas close to the lake bands are experiencing W winds gusting to ~40 MPH with blowing and some drifting snow. There have been a few instances of thundersnow. This type of event is probably over downwind of Lake Erie, although wouldn't be surprised to see some strikes near the wind towers east over the Tug Hill.

Equilibrium levels to 12k feet and strong winds will allow lake effect bands to extend quite far inland off Lake Erie, with showers extending into the mid/upper Genesee Valley and Western Finger Lakes this evening.

Lake effect snow off Lake Erie will taper off rather quickly across the Western Southern Tier, ending by late evening as drier air builds in and equilibrium levels lower behind the shortwave.

Significant lake effect snow will continue off Lake Ontario. The initial band will drop southward, moving across Oswego and Lewis counties through early evening. This may be followed by a brief lull. A band of lake effect snow should then re-develop near the southeast corner of the lake this evening. This band will settle south across Oswego County as boundary layer flow becomes WNW. Unlike Lake Erie, this band will last longer with a more favorable environment over Lake Ontario through early Thursday morning. Moisture will be limited, so this band is expected to be narrow, but there will be a brief period where winds drop off enough for a land breeze convergence boundary to develop late tonight before winds shift to the south and shear increases Thursday morning. This band may briefly meander into northern Cayuga County, with its intensity still uncertain. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be common, with a general 3-5 inches of snow expected. The Tug Hill may see up to 6 inches as the strongest forcing interacts with upslope flow. Oswego County may also see up to 6 inches if the overnight band remains in one location long enough.

Thursday, winds will back as surface high pressure passes just to our south. Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will shrink across the lake with weakening winds, before sliding north and tapering off through early afternoon. Any additional accumulation will be modest, maybe an inch or so along and to the west of I-81. A few flurries are possible early Thursday near Buffalo on a southwest flow. Outside of lake effect snow there will be quite a bit of sunshine Thursday morning, but cloud cover will increase as mid-level moisture overspreads the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A 1040mb high will move off the New England coast Thursday night. A southerly flow will persist across the region through Friday with afternoon highs reaching the low 40s. Coastal high pressure will extend southwestward across coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic during this time. Dry conditions will remain across western and north central NY through Friday.

Mid-level level ridging moves off the east coast Friday night. A deepening trough will track across the Mississippi Valley overnight while low pressure develops across the southeast U.S. and tracks north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Initially, the northern stream will develop low pressure across the Mid-West while the southern stream develops low pressure across the Gulf Coast states. As the trough tracks eastward overnight, these two systems will phase into a coastal low on Saturday. Strong moisture advection will occur as Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture get wrapped up along the east coast Saturday.

As moisture moves into western NY Friday night, most places should be above freezing and rain is expected. However, a few places across the western Southern Tier may fall below freezing temperatures in the early evening and may lead to a wintry mix for a few hours. Similarly, temperatures will have a longer time to fall east of Lake Ontario prior to the onset of precipitation which may produce a period of a wintry mix. Temperatures will slowly climb overnight and into Saturday morning because of the strong warm air advection and any wintry mix should change over to rain by Saturday morning. Highs in the low to mid 40s expected Saturday.

The model consensus is for low pressure to track from central PA to northern Vermont Saturday to Saturday night. As the low passes to the east and northeast, cold air advection will move into western and north central NY. This system is moisture laden so as colder air moves into the region, snow showers are likely from west to east through Saturday night. Minor lake enhancement expected through Saturday night as lake induced instability is lacking with 850mb temperatures only falling to around -6C by Sunday morning. An inch or two of snowfall accumulation is possible mainly at higher elevations east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday and Sunday night deep low pressure will push from the Lower Saint Lawrence Valley across Labrador and then out to sea . while high pressure over the Northern Plains states steadily builds east across the Great Lakes In between these two systems. a gradually weakening and drying westerly to west-northwesterly flow of colder air will persist across our region. The cold advection regime will result in morning highs in the mid to upper 30s Sunday giving way to slowly falling readings through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night . when lows will settle into the teens across the North Country and the lower to mid 20s elsewhere Meanwhile. initially breezy to windy conditions on Sunday (worst along the eastern and southeastern shores of both lakes where winds could gust to 35-40 mph) will give way to progressively calmer conditions through Sunday night as the surface ridge builds into our region.

In terms of precipitation . even though the bulk of the synoptic precipitation will be over by the start of this period . ongoing upslope flow and deep moisture will still maintain numerous to widespread snow showers east/east-southeast of the lakes Sunday morning . with these then steadily diminishing Sunday afternoon and night as our airmass steadily dries out and inversion heights lower Similarly. much more scattered mixed rain and snow showers elsewhere on Sunday will also come to an end Sunday night. While it will indeed be breezy to windy on Sunday . have pulled the previous mention of blowing snow from the forecast as temperatures both at the surface and aloft suggest a wetter snow that will be more difficult to effectively blow around.

On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England. Apart from some dying widely scattered light snow showers/flurries southeast of Lake Ontario early on . this should result in a dry day . with partly sunny skies initially giving way to increasing clouds across western New York out ahead of the next system Meanwhile daytime highs should be a bit below average. with readings ranging from the upper 20s across the North Country to the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday night the medium range guidance continues to exhibit significant discrepancies with the track of the next low pressure system. The latest GFS remains a northern outlier and tracks a deepening low directly across Lakes Erie and Ontario . which would favor a mixed precipitation event along followed by the potential for some gusty winds behind its trailing cold front . though at this point the low track appears to lie too close to our region to support a true high wind event. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF remain much further south with the low track and support a potential for some snow across our region . with the extent of this potential dependent upon the exact track of the low. For now have continued to favor the more realistic- looking latter camp of models . with a general chance of snow and near to slightly below average temperatures indicated for this 36-hour period.

Following the passage of this next system . a colder west to west- northwesterly flow looks to follow for Wednesday . supporting highs back in the 20s again along with a chance of snow showers east and east-southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Lake effect snow will continue to impact KART through about 00Z and to a lesser extent KJHW. Other TAF sites, KIAG, KBUF, and KROC may see very brief reductions toward IFR/MVFR before quickly bouncing back to VFR a narrow band or two crosses the region from NW to SE.

Later this evening, expect mainly VFR conditions with lake snows focusing east of the lakes. Lake snows will taper off late tonight off Lake Erie and Thursday morning off Lake Ontario. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions late tonight through Thursday TAF sites. A brief period of MVFR conditions is possible at KART/KIAG/KBUF Thursday morning when the remnant lake effect clouds (and maybe a snow shower) move through these terminals.

Outlook .

Thursday night . VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. A cold airmass will continue to spread bands of lake effect snow east across the lakes this evening. A brief period of marginal 35 kt gales will accompany the cold front on both lakes. Winds will quickly diminish tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a period of low end gale force winds this evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. A Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties through tonight. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008- 019-020. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ012- 085. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ010-019-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042- 043. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045- 063>065. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	8 mi	53 min		28°F			1028.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	10 mi	53 min	W 19 G 22	24°F	40°F		1029.4 hPa	4°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	25 mi	53 min		22°F			1029.4 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	29 mi	71 min	W 28 G 39	28°F			1028.1 hPa (+5.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	43 mi	71 min	W 30 G 38	26°F			1028.8 hPa (+4.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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W11

NW10 G15

NW12 G15

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W5 G8

W12 G17

W15

W10 G13

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SW26 G33

S27 G33

SW29 G38

SW29 G35

W19 G27

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W25 G31

W23 G28

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1 day ago

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SW15 G19

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SW14 G19

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SW20 G27

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SW20 G25

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W16 G22

W13 G17

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W11 G15

W19 G23

W16 G20

W12 G15

2 days ago

S18 G23

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S16 G20

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S13 G16

SE8 G13

SE7 G11

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SE12 G18

SE8 G13

SE9 G13

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S13 G17

SE10

SE14 G18

S20 G27

S16 G20

S14 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	17 mi	77 min	W 17 G 22	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	22°F	12°F	66%	1029.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

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SW22 G28

SW22 G31

SW21 G32

SW20 G34

W15 G23

W24 G35

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W19 G28

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1 day ago

SW16 G23

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SW14 G22

SW18 G27

SW18 G36

SW15 G30

SW17 G29

SW17 G31

SW23 G31

SW18 G25

W19 G25

W15 G21

W11 G20

W15 G21

W10 G17

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W15 G21

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W10 G20

W15 G20

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S18 G25

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S13 G21

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S17 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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