Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wanakah, NY

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 101816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 216 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will produce a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free. An approaching weak cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warmth and humidity will continue through Tuesday before the cold front ushers in less humid air mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak warm frontal segment will move east of the area this afternoon, while a convectively augmented shortwave passes north of Lake Ontario. This combined with moderate diurnal instability and lake breeze boundaries will support a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These will be most widespread across the St Lawrence Valley, but also will develop across the Western Finger Lakes and even across Niagara County along a lake breeze convergence boundary.

Otherwise, today will be hot with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will be in the mid 90s from the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes to Central NY.

Any widely scattered showers and storms will end this evening, leaving dry weather and partly cloudy to mainly clear skies overnight. A very warm airmass and light breeze will keep temperatures very mild. Expect lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains, and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. The breeze will likely prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak mid level trough and associated weak cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at the details, Tuesday will start off dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre-frontal trough. With a lack of any real strong dynamics aloft and a well established lake breeze out of the southwest, areas northeast of the lakes (Buffalo/Watertown) may not see much if any rain during the bulk of the day. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night with all areas fair game to get some rain as the mid level trough and a cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk.

Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes region eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may approach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the northern Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

The frontal boundary will stall just southeast of the region for the Wednesday through Wednesday night timeframe, with surface high pressure building in from the north across the Great Lakes region. A few lingering showers or an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across the interior southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, with the best chance toward the the NY/PA border, with the remainder of the area staying dry. The airmass will be a bit cooler and notably less humid with post-frontal dew points around 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus keeps the weak frontal boundary stalled out just to our south Thursday through Friday as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the bulk of the area. This will provide dry weather for the vast majority of the region, however a few showers cannot be ruled out from time to time across the Southern Tier, especially closer to the NY/PA line. By Saturday surface high pressure over east-central Quebec will slide south toward New Brunswick and Nova Scotia by Sunday, allowing the western end of the stalled boundary to the south, to start pivoting its' way slowly back northward toward western NY. At the same time, a weak mid-level trough will approach the region from the west on Saturday, and this combined with deeper moisture and daytime instability may produce a few showers or storms, especially south of Lake Ontario. Much of the area should be dry Saturday night as the aforementioned southward settling area of high pressure ridges in from the northwest. The next system will approach from the west on Sunday, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east to close out the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run above average throughout the period. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms. These will be possible through 23Z today, and again after 13Z Tuesday morning. Coverage will be scattered with any impact expected to last an hour or less at any one location. Wind should be strong enough tonight to prevent fog formation despite the muggy airmass.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night . Scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR prevailing, with brief MVFR/IFR possible in storms. Wednesday and Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE. Modest southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will produce some choppy wave action. Expect similar conditions again Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Light winds are then expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ003>006-013- 014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . Apffel/JM LONG TERM . Apffel/JM AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	8 mi	50 min		78°F			1016.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	10 mi	50 min	SW 8.9 G 9.9	78°F	78°F		1017.2 hPa	59°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	25 mi	50 min		83°F			1016.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	29 mi	80 min	W 8.9 G 11	79°F			1016.7 hPa (+0.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	43 mi	80 min	W 6 G 8.9	77°F			1015.9 hPa (-0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby	49 mi	80 min	WSW 5.8 G 9.7	80°F	74°F		1014.5 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

Last 24hr

SW18 G22

SW16 G22

SW18

SW13 G17

W13 G16

SW11

SW7 G11

SW10

SW9 G13

SW7 G11

S6 G10

S6

S8

S8

S6

S5

S7

S8

S10

S10 G13

SW4 G7

SW5 G8

SW10

SW9

1 day ago

SW10

SW9 G12

SW10

W11

SW10

SW11

W13

W10 G13

SW9

SW8

S9

S10

S10 G13

S10

S10 G13

S10 G13

S11

S8 G11

S10

SW11

SW13

SW15 G19

SW12 G20

SW17 G22

2 days ago

NE6 G12

N4 G9

N11 G16

N7 G12

NE8 G11

NE7

E4 G7

NE5

NE2

E4

N3

N4

N4

NE3

E4

E2 G5

E3

--

E1

S3

SW4

SW4

SW6

SW8

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	17 mi	26 min	SW 14	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	86°F	68°F	55%	1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

Last 24hr

SW16 G22

SW17 G25

SW16

W15

SW13

SW10

SW7

SW9

S5

S8

S6

SW6

S6

S5

S4

S5

S6

S7

SW11

SW8

SW13

SW12

SW11

SW14

1 day ago

SW8

4

S11

SW9

SW10

SW10

W6

SW5

S4

S6

SW6

S6

S6

S4

S5

S6

S5

S6

SW12

SW10

SW14 G23

SW15 G22

SW18 G28

W15 G28

2 days ago

N8

NE10

N8

NE8

NE7

NE6

E5

Calm

Calm

N3

N3

Calm

N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

SE4

Calm

SE3

SE3

Calm

S5

NW7

N7

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.