Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 7:30 PM   Moonset 5:24 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 232244 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 644 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening ahead of a cold front. There is potential for hail with any thunderstorm activity.

- Breezy late tonight with gusts up to 30 mph in the Thumb.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of southeast MI late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning as overnight lows dip into the upper 20s.

- Rain chances increase Friday night as a series of lows lift into the upper Midwest. There is low confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

An upper level short wave will track across Se Mi this evening. Weak elevated instability will present the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms with this system. Overall, the degree of elevated instability will weaken during the evening. Therefore, the better chances for thunderstorms, if any, will remain at FNT and mbS. The upper wave will drive front across Se Mi from late evening into the overnight. There will be a veering of the winds to the north- northeast with the passage of this front. Post frontal cold air advection and ample low level moisture will sustain widespread MVFR based stratus well into Wed morning. A little bit of post frontal moisture and flux off Lake Huron will contribute to some light rain/snow showers from PTK northward Wed morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Remnant weak elevated instability will advance across the metro airspace between 03Z and 06Z. There is expected to be scattered to numerous coverage of showers during this period. Just isolated coverage of thunderstorms is expected. A push of colder air will arrive within strengthening north winds after 12Z Wed morning. Wind gusts will top 20 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening. High overnight into early Wed afternoon.

* Low in thunderstorms impacting the terminal tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

DISCUSSION...

Frontal forcing has lifted into southern lower Michigan, with a band of steady rain filling into Lenawee and Monroe Counties as of issuance. This band is expected to hold along/south of I-94 before shearing southeast late this evening. Attention then turns to the cumulus field upstream across northern lower MI-WI-MN where convective cells have been developing over the past couple hours invof the mid-level wave and trailing cold front. Expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to move into the Tri Cities and Thumb region between 22-00z (6-8pm local) and track southeast across the rest of the cwa tonight. Steep mid level lapse rates approach 8 C/km upstream, which will advect into northern portions of the cwa and be the main catalyst for a stronger updraft or two this evening.
Widespread strong storms are not expected, however, as low instability will struggle to maintain updrafts in such high shear.

The upper level trough and surface front will slide southeast into Lake Erie by daybreak Wednesday, ushering out any lingering showers.
Breezy conditions linger through the morning, especially around the Thumb region where gusts may approach 30 mph. Morning lows will reflect post-frontal cold advection, as some spots around the Tri Cities and Thumb will see temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the teens. Standard subsidence inversion settles between 3.0-5.0 kft agl, initially trapping leftover moisture and maintaining a thick stratus deck for the morning. A much drier low level airmass then advects south Wednesday afternoon, dropping PWAT values below 0.25" (below the 10th percentile per SPC climo) and quickly mixing out clouds by afternoon. H8 temperatures dropping into the single digits during the day leads to a range of temperatures from near 40 degrees in the Thumb to low 50s for inland and urban locations.

Dry weather persists through mid-day Friday as heights build and a roughly 1030 mb surface high stalls overhead. Opportunities for cloud cover remain limited, with just a glancing stream of high cloud moving in Thursday invof a low amplitude wave. Main concern during this time window is sub-freezing temperatures (upper 20s)
Thursday morning, in which a Freeze Watch has been issued overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Benign conditions come to an end Friday afternoon as the next storm system ejects out of the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. The primary circulation will stay well to our west, but will push the warm conveyor and associated moist isentropic upglide right overhead by Friday evening. A strong low level jet, 40-45 knots at 850 mb, contributes to substantial warm advection and moisture transport into the area at this point, increasing confidence in a period of widespread rain Friday night and a gradual warm up through the weekend. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to climb comfortably into the 70s.

Precipitation prospects for the weekend offer much less certainty, beginning with a mid-level dry slot that arrives Saturday morning.
This creates a highly conditional convective setup in which available long-range guidance struggles with depth and magnitude of static stability within the dry slot. If the atmosphere is dry and capped (e.g. 00z Euro), convection would struggle to initiate and be reliant on a warm/moist boundary layer that may not come to fruition. On the other hand, favorable return flow and opportunity for the SE CONUS ridge to direct embedded shortwaves toward lower MI (e.g. 12z GFS) Saturday and Sunday will warrant monitoring for thunderstorm potential.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory will expire at 4 PM today as gusty winds and heightened waves diminish into the evening hours. Surface low pressure associated with an upper level disturbance crossing the Midwest has shifted south, becoming more diffuse over The Straits as a secondary surface low emerges further west. Expect some additional rounds of showers this evening, including the potential for a few thunderstorms that could result in locally higher winds/waves. Most of the convective activity should develop ahead of the system's cold front through before colder post-frontal air filters overnight. This leads to brisk northerly flow and low-end potential for gusts to gales while lapse rates steepen and forecast soundings are well- mixed once stronger LLJ winds clip central Lake Huron. Will likely issue another Small Craft Advisory for Saginaw Bay and The Thumb with the evening marine update. Gradient winds trend lower midday Wednesday before high pressure starts building into the Great Lakes.
More favorable marine conditions are expected Thursday with sustained ridging until Friday. Unsettled weather returns Saturday, dependent on trajectory of a large low pressure system ejecting from The Plains.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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