Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 201058 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AVIATION.

A quieter stretch of weather continues this morning yielding favorable conditions for aviators as high pressure expands further into the Great Lakes today. Composite GOES-E imagery has shown an increase in high cloud coverage (bases above 20 kft) over most of the terminals, but no low or mid clouds are present at this time. The possibility exists for a broken MVFR deck to spread into the northwestern terminals this evening from low-level moisture spilling eastward off the western lakes. Have highlighted this possibility at mbS/FNT, but if moisture quality ends up being weaker, an AMD down to FEW/SCT may be warranted with the 18Z update.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings below 5000 ft Monday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

At the surface, a large area of arctic high pressure will settle southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS in the early/mid week period. The center of this high pressure will build from the upper Missouri Valley today to the Ohio Valley/Appalachia by Wednesday morning. This will provide dry conditions for the area over the next 3 to 4 days with the exception of lingering lake effect snow showers or flurries over the eastern Thumb region early this morning. While light, powdery accumulations (perhaps on order of an additional inch or two locally) will likely occur along the shoreline early in the morning (particularly over parts of Huron county), a steady shift to the east out over the lake will ensue around dawn as drier arctic air continues to spread east into the central Great Lakes.

This air mass will provide a chilly start to the week as the core of cold air associated with this high shifts over the region. Maximum temperatures will range in the 20s once again today after a cold start to the day in the single digits to lower teens in most areas. Similar conditions will persist on Tuesday with temperatures just a few degrees milder as the arctic air mass slowly moderates over the course of the next day or two. Continued moderation can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as return south to southwest flow impacts the area as this high continues its trek to the southeast of the region. Temperatures will edge back into the 30s Wednesday and then climb well into the 30s to around 40 in some locations by Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern will be in a sort of flux over the next several days. A high amplitude ridge over western NOAM will force the next significant shortwave from Canada to dig sharply SSE early in the week. Its track will take it from the northern plains and upper midwest down the Mississippi Valley to northern Florida up into the Carolinas by late Tuesday. This track will bypass the region entire today into tonight (ensuring the dry weather noted above).

In the wake of this system, a quasi-zonal flow setups up briefly as jet energy from the central/northern Pacific breaks down the western ridging temporarily as it comes onshore over British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. The ridging then becomes re-established as this shortwave energy digs into the central plains and carves out an upper low pressure system. This upper low nearly becomes cutoff from the northern stream flow over Canada, but maintains just enough connection as additional weaker shortwave energy rounds the western ridge and digs in behind the main system to help keep it lumbering east across the CONUS. A notable sub-tropical jet in excess of 100 knots also helps push this system along late this week into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern stream upper troughing shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate thru the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly, given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove both of these "elements" to a large degree.

MARINE .

Post frontal north-northeast winds will continue to gust around 25 knots during the course of the night. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday as the gradient relaxes. Strong high pressure extending across the Ohio Valley during the first half of the week will sustain a decent gradient across Lake Huron. This will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday, while wind slowly back from northwest Monday to southwest by Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441- 442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	58 mi	62 min	WNW 6 G 8.9	15°F			1032.8 hPa (+2.3)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	75 mi	62 min	N 14 G 16	16°F			1032.2 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

Last 24hr

W13 G20

W16 G22

W14 G23

W12 G18

W13 G20

W15 G20

W14 G19

W11 G16

W9 G14

W9 G12

W8 G13

W7

W6

W4

W5

W6

NW7

W5

NW6 G9

NW6

W4

NW5

NW4

NW4 G7

1 day ago

S10

S15 G19

S15 G19

S14 G19

S16 G21

SW16 G25

SW13 G21

W15 G24

W18 G30

W20 G29

W18 G27

W11 G22

W19 G31

W13 G22

W20 G31

W17 G23

W15 G26

W20 G25

W15 G21

W13 G20

W15 G23

W15 G24

W10 G18

W12 G23

2 days ago

NW3

NW5

E9

E8 G11

SE7 G10

E11

E12 G16

E12 G15

E10 G13

E8

E8

E8 G11

E8 G12

E11

E12 G15

SE8 G14

E12 G15

E17 G21

E14 G20

SE13 G19

SE15

SE16 G20

SE6 G9

S5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	8 mi	67 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Fair	8°F	4°F	88%	1032.2 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI	20 mi	69 min	W 4	10.00 mi	Fair	9°F	3°F	80%	1034.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI	22 mi	67 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	6°F	3°F	87%	1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)

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11 AM

12 PM

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5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

Last 24hr

W12 G16

W14 G18

W12 G20

W12 G18

W10

W11

N5

N5

N6

N4

NW4

W4

W4

W5

W6

W6

W6

W3

SW3

NW5

NW4

NW3

NW3

W4

1 day ago

SE12

SE15 G20

SE12 G20

S11

S9 G14

SW11 G20

W18 G24

W19 G24

W18 G28

W14 G21

W15 G19

W14 G18

W17 G30

W17 G28

W21 G32

W14 G21

W18 G28

SW14 G28

W20 G25

SW19 G25

SW15 G22

SW15 G26

W16 G20

W13

2 days ago

Calm

NE3

E4

E7

E9

SE8

SE8

SE10

SE9

SE10

SE9

E8

E8

E9

E12 G17

E12

E11 G18

E13 G21

E13 G20

SE15 G22

SE15 G20

SE16

SE12 G20

SE14 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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