Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Fxus63 kdtx 260758 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi 358 am edt Mon aug 26 2019 Discussion The persistent dome of high pressure that resulted in a very nice weekend will finally give up control of the weather over SE mi today as a stacked closed low drops into south-central canada (and southward into the northern plains) later today. This, combined with a lead shortwave over the mid ms valley that will be pulled north across the long axis of lake mi into the much larger system, will present several opportunities for precipitation today through Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday. There will be a transition today from the dry anticyclonic east- southeasterly flow aloft this morning to very moist cyclonic southeast flow by afternoon. Impressive dry layer shown on the dtx Sunday evening sounding between about 4kft and 30kft with a pwat of 0.49 inches will start us off dry this morning. Lead moisture well up the warm frontal slope ahead of the lead shortwave will start saturating the column in the upper levels this morning but it will take til this afternoon when models show a good surge of deep moisture behind a tight theta E gradient to saturate the column bringing rain showers. Rap soundings show pwats jumping from 0.6" at 12z to 1.6" by 16z at dtw so it appears to happen quite quickly. By evening consensus says it will be around 1.8". Will carry numerous pops from about 18-06z to account for the wide area of warm advective showers and high moisture content. Thunder chances remain low through the day as warming aloft with cooler air at the surface prevent much if any instability from developing. A brief lull in precip (maybe scattered showers lingering) is expected tonight before the next surge of moisture on the nose of the low level jet lifts through west and central lower mi Tuesday morning around 09-12z. Highest pops will be across the saginaw valley with decreasing chances to the south and east away from the forcing. This boost in moisture to an already moist environment could result in pwats exceeding 2" Tuesday morning. With several rounds of precipitation expected in the next 36 hours and a very moist airmass we will need to watch for potential flooding across the area. The axis of highest moisture looks to hold to our west but several rounds of efficient rainfall with possible convection and training of storms will need to be watched. Warm advection with gusty southerly flow on Tuesday will allow high temperatures to reach near 80 degrees before the cold front sweeps across lower mi in the afternoon. Hires in good agreement that a prefrontal trough will spark the next round of showers and thunderstorms around 15-18z. Low CAPE (up to 500 j kg), decent shear (30 knots) environment will be present allowing for mention of thunder. Most models agree the actual cold front post 18z will be little more than a wind shift toward the west with little to no precip along it. Strong mid level PV lobe then rotates around the broad upper low sweeping across mi early Wednesday. A thermal trough with 850mb temps in the single digits will then move over lower mi while zonal westerly winds develop. Deep mixing to around 5-6kft with strong low level lapse rates will bring down these stronger westerlies leading to winds gusting to around 25-35mph in the afternoon. There is a low chance a secondary shortwave trough passing to our north could excite a few afternoon showers but best chances remain north with ridge of high pressure already building back northward into lower mi generally high pressure for the remainder of the forecast with only a weak cold front Thursday night Friday and possible shearing shortwave riding along the front once it settles to our south on Sunday. Nearly zonal flow will keep high temperatures steady around the mid 70s with lows in the mid 50s. Marine Small craft advisories are expanded across the rest of the southern lake huron nearshore waters today through Tuesday and added to the

michigan waters of lake erie. Lake st clair is expected to remain just below criteria but will be monitored for wind trends during the morning. The elevated SE wind and high waves occur in stronger gradient flow between departing high pressure and a large low pressure system developing across central canada into the midwest. Gusts likely reach 30 knots over the open waters of central and northern lake huron by tonight also accompanied by a pattern of showers and thunderstorms. The wind eases up as a cold front approaches during Tuesday but then becomes moderate westerly behind the front through mid week. The wind field remains elevated across the central great lakes as the large low pressure system moves slowly near hudson bay while high pressure builds into the ohio valley. This high pressure system gradually takes over with improved conditions during the late week period. Hydrology A large low pressure system develops today from central canada into the midwest states and draws a pattern of showers and thunderstorms into lower michigan late today and tonight. The incoming air mass is warm and humid with high moisture content and could support locally heavy downpours in stronger thunderstorms, especially during Tuesday as a cold front moves in from the west to enhance activity. Basin average rainfall is expected to be around 0.75 inches tonight through Tuesday with isolated totals of 1 inch or more possible in stronger thunderstorms and or in locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. This presents a chance of localized flooding of prone urban locations if higher totals set up across these areas along with minor increases in area streams and rivers. The cold front sweeps showers and thunderstorms eastward by Tuesday evening. Prev discussion Issued at 1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019 aviation... vfr conditions will prevail into Monday morning as dry low level southeast flow around high pressure over quebec continues. Moisture will then increase steadily with approach of shortwave from the west with CIGS in around 5kft thicken by early afternoon and rain showers becoming increasingly likely during the mid late afternoon. In fact, showers should prevail by the 22z-24z time frame and persist into the evening as CIGS drop to at least MVFR. Winds will gust to 20 knots or a bit more again on Monday as pressure gradient remains in place as this system nudges into the area. For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will become increasingly likely after 18z on Monday with rain showers developing after 21z. CIGS will drop further and may approach ifr after 01z at the end of the forecast. Dtw threshold probabilities... * medium for CIGS at or below 5,000 by 18z Monday, high Monday evening into Monday night. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through this evening for miz049-055-083. Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 5 am edt Tuesday for miz049-055. Lakeshore flood warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this evening for miz063-070-076-083. Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Tuesday for lhz441>443. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444. Discussion... Drk marine... ... .Bt hydrology... .Bt aviation... ..Dg you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	58 mi	58 min	SE 17 G 21	71°F			1018.6 hPa (-1.4)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	75 mi	58 min	SE 19 G 23	66°F			1017.6 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	8 mi	2.7 hrs	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	54°F	86%	1018.6 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI	20 mi	2.1 hrs	E 4	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	52°F	83%	1018.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI	22 mi	2.7 hrs	E 4	10.00 mi	Fair	60°F	55°F	85%	1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.