Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 8:18 PM EST (01:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;117394 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
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location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 272339 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

AVIATION.

Extensive plume of lake moisture now encompassing much of western and northern lower Michigan this evening within prevailing cold north-northwest flow. The dry arctic air holding firm locally, but recent satellite trends do suggest some fragments of low stratus may yet funnel southward overnight within this pattern. Cloud bases generally expected to remain above 3000 ft, although a brief reduction into MVFR is plausible. Any intrusion of lower cloud may offer some flurries. This environment will remain in place into Thursday. A slight backing of the wind toward the northwest will increase the likelihood for lake moisture to advect into southeast Michigan during the daylight period. This will support a higher coverage of stratocumulus with the aid of diurnal heating.

For DTW . Satellite trends suggest the higher coverage of low stratus will remain to the west and north through the night. There is potential for some pockets of stratus to work through the airspace overnight, but confidence remains low for a ceiling below 5000 ft to emerge during this time. Higher confidence for low cloud development increases Thursday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through Thursday morning. Medium Thursday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 242 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

DISCUSSION .

Arctic high pressure will build gradually east/southeast through Ontario and maintain a cold airmass across the area with generally quiet weather conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 20s through the weekend with low temperatures in the single digits to lower teens into early Saturday morning.

While the low level flow from this high will remain very dry, moisture flux will increase over the Great Lakes and provide some lake effect stratus/strato-cu over the next day or two. Lake effect snow showers will continue over Lake Huron and work back onshore over the immediate shoreline of the Thumb to some extent overnight into Thursday. In fact, a few lake effect flurries may even work into a larger portion of the forecast area by Thursday from snow bands working off of Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan. At this time, any notable accumulations will be localized to the Lake Huron shoreline.

A shortwave within the southern stream will shear east around the base of this high pressure tonight and bypass the area to the south with just a bit of higher level cloudiness brushing the area. The next southern stream shortwave will work onshore over California late today and tonight and then work through the southwest CONUS and emerge over the southern plains by early Saturday.

This system has the potential to bring snowfall to parts of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night. However, the northern extent of heavy snowfall that will be associated with this system remains highly in question as the aforementioned high pressure, centered over Quebec by late in the weekend, will act to shunt the northeastward progress of this system as it encroaches on the region. This will become the biggest challenge of the forecast in the coming days. With the high pressure centered more to the east by that time, temperatures will moderate to some degree with highs closer to 30 from Sunday into early next week and lows in the teens to around 20.

MARINE .

Moderate northerly winds continue through tonight and Thursday as an arctic airmass remains overhead leading to increased mixing depths allowing some stronger winds aloft to mix down closer to the surface. Winds will rotate slightly Thursday afternoon to more NW as the center of arctic high pressure drifts from the WI/IL border to near the MI/IN border. Small craft advisories continue through early Thursday afternoon until the aforementioned wind shift pushes the elevated wave field toward the Canadian side of Lake Huron. NNW winds will weaken some Friday as the center high pressure drifts directly over the central Great Lakes region. Winds then shift to easterly Saturday ahead of the next approaching low that will move from the southern Plains into Ohio Valley by Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi79 min NNW 13 G 16 22°F 1027.4 hPa (+2.0)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 75 mi79 min NNE 13 G 15 23°F 1027.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi24 minNW 310.00 miOvercast18°F11°F76%1027.1 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi26 minW 310.00 miOvercast14°F8°F77%1029.5 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi24 minN 010.00 miLight Snow19°F13°F80%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N8N7N8N6N4N5N5N5NW3NW5N3NW3CalmN4N7N7N9NW8NW8N5CalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5E3NE6NE6NE6NE5NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.