Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:23PM Monday August 26, 2019 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:13AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0049.000000t0000z-190821t0145z/ 913 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4279 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4249 8284 4266 8284 4272 8269 4269 8260 4265 8259 4265 8255 4266 8255 4276 8251 4290 8251 4295 8249 4295 8243 time...mot...loc 0111z 222deg 32kt 4279 8263 4269 8267 4251 8275
LCZ423 Expires:201908210121;;958666 FZUS73 KDTX 210113 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 LCZ423-210121-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
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location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260758
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
358 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Discussion
The persistent dome of high pressure that resulted in a very nice
weekend will finally give up control of the weather over SE mi today
as a stacked closed low drops into south-central canada (and
southward into the northern plains) later today. This, combined with
a lead shortwave over the mid ms valley that will be pulled north
across the long axis of lake mi into the much larger system, will
present several opportunities for precipitation today through
Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.

There will be a transition today from the dry anticyclonic east-
southeasterly flow aloft this morning to very moist cyclonic
southeast flow by afternoon. Impressive dry layer shown on the dtx
Sunday evening sounding between about 4kft and 30kft with a pwat of
0.49 inches will start us off dry this morning. Lead moisture well
up the warm frontal slope ahead of the lead shortwave will start
saturating the column in the upper levels this morning but it will
take til this afternoon when models show a good surge of deep
moisture behind a tight theta E gradient to saturate the column
bringing rain showers. Rap soundings show pwats jumping from 0.6" at
12z to 1.6" by 16z at dtw so it appears to happen quite quickly. By
evening consensus says it will be around 1.8". Will carry numerous
pops from about 18-06z to account for the wide area of warm
advective showers and high moisture content. Thunder chances remain
low through the day as warming aloft with cooler air at the surface
prevent much if any instability from developing.

A brief lull in precip (maybe scattered showers lingering) is
expected tonight before the next surge of moisture on the nose of
the low level jet lifts through west and central lower mi Tuesday
morning around 09-12z. Highest pops will be across the saginaw
valley with decreasing chances to the south and east away from the
forcing. This boost in moisture to an already moist environment
could result in pwats exceeding 2" Tuesday morning.

With several rounds of precipitation expected in the next 36 hours
and a very moist airmass we will need to watch for potential
flooding across the area. The axis of highest moisture looks to hold
to our west but several rounds of efficient rainfall with possible
convection and training of storms will need to be watched.

Warm advection with gusty southerly flow on Tuesday will allow high
temperatures to reach near 80 degrees before the cold front sweeps
across lower mi in the afternoon. Hires in good agreement that a
prefrontal trough will spark the next round of showers and
thunderstorms around 15-18z. Low CAPE (up to 500 j kg), decent shear
(30 knots) environment will be present allowing for mention of
thunder. Most models agree the actual cold front post 18z will be
little more than a wind shift toward the west with little to no
precip along it.

Strong mid level PV lobe then rotates around the broad upper low
sweeping across mi early Wednesday. A thermal trough with 850mb
temps in the single digits will then move over lower mi while zonal
westerly winds develop. Deep mixing to around 5-6kft with strong low
level lapse rates will bring down these stronger westerlies leading
to winds gusting to around 25-35mph in the afternoon. There is a low
chance a secondary shortwave trough passing to our north could
excite a few afternoon showers but best chances remain north with
ridge of high pressure already building back northward into lower mi
generally high pressure for the remainder of the forecast with only
a weak cold front Thursday night Friday and possible shearing
shortwave riding along the front once it settles to our south on
Sunday. Nearly zonal flow will keep high temperatures steady around
the mid 70s with lows in the mid 50s.

Marine
Small craft advisories are expanded across the rest of the southern
lake huron nearshore waters today through Tuesday and added to the
michigan waters of lake erie. Lake st clair is expected to remain
just below criteria but will be monitored for wind trends during the
morning. The elevated SE wind and high waves occur in stronger
gradient flow between departing high pressure and a large low
pressure system developing across central canada into the midwest.

Gusts likely reach 30 knots over the open waters of central and
northern lake huron by tonight also accompanied by a pattern of
showers and thunderstorms. The wind eases up as a cold front
approaches during Tuesday but then becomes moderate westerly behind
the front through mid week. The wind field remains elevated across
the central great lakes as the large low pressure system moves
slowly near hudson bay while high pressure builds into the ohio
valley. This high pressure system gradually takes over with improved
conditions during the late week period.

Hydrology
A large low pressure system develops today from central canada into
the midwest states and draws a pattern of showers and thunderstorms
into lower michigan late today and tonight. The incoming air mass is
warm and humid with high moisture content and could support locally
heavy downpours in stronger thunderstorms, especially during Tuesday
as a cold front moves in from the west to enhance activity. Basin
average rainfall is expected to be around 0.75 inches tonight
through Tuesday with isolated totals of 1 inch or more possible in
stronger thunderstorms and or in locations that see multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall. This presents a chance of localized flooding of
prone urban locations if higher totals set up across these areas
along with minor increases in area streams and rivers. The cold
front sweeps showers and thunderstorms eastward by Tuesday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail into Monday morning as dry low level
southeast flow around high pressure over quebec continues. Moisture
will then increase steadily with approach of shortwave from the west
with CIGS in around 5kft thicken by early afternoon and rain showers
becoming increasingly likely during the mid late afternoon. In fact,
showers should prevail by the 22z-24z time frame and persist into
the evening as CIGS drop to at least MVFR. Winds will gust to 20
knots or a bit more again on Monday as pressure gradient remains in
place as this system nudges into the area.

For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will become increasingly likely after 18z on
Monday with rain showers developing after 21z. CIGS will drop
further and may approach ifr after 01z at the end of the forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for CIGS at or below 5,000 by 18z Monday, high Monday
evening into Monday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through this
evening for miz049-055-083.

Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 5 am edt Tuesday
for miz049-055.

Lakeshore flood warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for miz063-070-076-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Tuesday for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi58 min SE 17 G 21 71°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.4)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 75 mi58 min SE 19 G 23 66°F 1017.6 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi2.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair59°F54°F86%1018.6 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi2.1 hrsE 410.00 miFair57°F52°F83%1018.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi2.7 hrsE 410.00 miFair60°F55°F85%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3CalmCalmE6E7E11
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G16
E8E6E5E4NE4E3E4CalmE3E3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E11E7NE7NE6NE7NE7NE6NE6NE7CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3CalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5NW4NW5NW6NW5NW8N9
G14
N6NE4NE7NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.