Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:34PM Monday January 20, 2020 9:01 AM EST (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:09AMMoonset 1:59PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-191230t1215z/ 714 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 715 am est... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The wind shift has moved out of the warned area. Lat...lon 4173 8349 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4223 8319 4234 8310 4237 8299 4235 8294 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1214z 232deg 43kt 4292 8284 4267 8247 4234 8204
LCZ423 Expires:201912301224;;155656 FZUS73 KDTX 301214 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 714 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-301224-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
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location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201058 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AVIATION.

A quieter stretch of weather continues this morning yielding favorable conditions for aviators as high pressure expands further into the Great Lakes today. Composite GOES-E imagery has shown an increase in high cloud coverage (bases above 20 kft) over most of the terminals, but no low or mid clouds are present at this time. The possibility exists for a broken MVFR deck to spread into the northwestern terminals this evening from low-level moisture spilling eastward off the western lakes. Have highlighted this possibility at mbS/FNT, but if moisture quality ends up being weaker, an AMD down to FEW/SCT may be warranted with the 18Z update.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings below 5000 ft Monday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

At the surface, a large area of arctic high pressure will settle southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS in the early/mid week period. The center of this high pressure will build from the upper Missouri Valley today to the Ohio Valley/Appalachia by Wednesday morning. This will provide dry conditions for the area over the next 3 to 4 days with the exception of lingering lake effect snow showers or flurries over the eastern Thumb region early this morning. While light, powdery accumulations (perhaps on order of an additional inch or two locally) will likely occur along the shoreline early in the morning (particularly over parts of Huron county), a steady shift to the east out over the lake will ensue around dawn as drier arctic air continues to spread east into the central Great Lakes.

This air mass will provide a chilly start to the week as the core of cold air associated with this high shifts over the region. Maximum temperatures will range in the 20s once again today after a cold start to the day in the single digits to lower teens in most areas. Similar conditions will persist on Tuesday with temperatures just a few degrees milder as the arctic air mass slowly moderates over the course of the next day or two. Continued moderation can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as return south to southwest flow impacts the area as this high continues its trek to the southeast of the region. Temperatures will edge back into the 30s Wednesday and then climb well into the 30s to around 40 in some locations by Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern will be in a sort of flux over the next several days. A high amplitude ridge over western NOAM will force the next significant shortwave from Canada to dig sharply SSE early in the week. Its track will take it from the northern plains and upper midwest down the Mississippi Valley to northern Florida up into the Carolinas by late Tuesday. This track will bypass the region entire today into tonight (ensuring the dry weather noted above).

In the wake of this system, a quasi-zonal flow setups up briefly as jet energy from the central/northern Pacific breaks down the western ridging temporarily as it comes onshore over British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. The ridging then becomes re-established as this shortwave energy digs into the central plains and carves out an upper low pressure system. This upper low nearly becomes cutoff from the northern stream flow over Canada, but maintains just enough connection as additional weaker shortwave energy rounds the western ridge and digs in behind the main system to help keep it lumbering east across the CONUS. A notable sub-tropical jet in excess of 100 knots also helps push this system along late this week into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern stream upper troughing shifts into the region. With only a limited amount of cold air tapped from Canada, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain/snow during this period as temperatures oscillate thru the 30s during the diurnal cycle. Based on model consensus in the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly, given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all wet snow at times. A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove both of these "elements" to a large degree.

MARINE .

Post frontal north-northeast winds will continue to gust around 25 knots during the course of the night. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday as the gradient relaxes. Strong high pressure extending across the Ohio Valley during the first half of the week will sustain a decent gradient across Lake Huron. This will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday, while wind slowly back from northwest Monday to southwest by Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441- 442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi62 min WNW 6 G 8.9 15°F 1032.8 hPa (+2.3)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 75 mi62 min N 14 G 16 16°F 1032.2 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi67 minW 310.00 miFair8°F4°F88%1032.2 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi69 minW 410.00 miFair9°F3°F80%1034.7 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair6°F3°F87%1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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W10W11N5N5N6N4NW4W4W4W5W6W6W6W3SW3NW5NW4NW3NW3W4
1 day agoSE12SE15
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2 days agoCalmNE3E4E7E9SE8SE8SE10SE9SE10SE9E8E8E9E12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.