Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 272339 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

AVIATION.

Extensive plume of lake moisture now encompassing much of western and northern lower Michigan this evening within prevailing cold north-northwest flow. The dry arctic air holding firm locally, but recent satellite trends do suggest some fragments of low stratus may yet funnel southward overnight within this pattern. Cloud bases generally expected to remain above 3000 ft, although a brief reduction into MVFR is plausible. Any intrusion of lower cloud may offer some flurries. This environment will remain in place into Thursday. A slight backing of the wind toward the northwest will increase the likelihood for lake moisture to advect into southeast Michigan during the daylight period. This will support a higher coverage of stratocumulus with the aid of diurnal heating.

For DTW . Satellite trends suggest the higher coverage of low stratus will remain to the west and north through the night. There is potential for some pockets of stratus to work through the airspace overnight, but confidence remains low for a ceiling below 5000 ft to emerge during this time. Higher confidence for low cloud development increases Thursday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through Thursday morning. Medium Thursday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 242 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

DISCUSSION .

Arctic high pressure will build gradually east/southeast through Ontario and maintain a cold airmass across the area with generally quiet weather conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 20s through the weekend with low temperatures in the single digits to lower teens into early Saturday morning.

While the low level flow from this high will remain very dry, moisture flux will increase over the Great Lakes and provide some lake effect stratus/strato-cu over the next day or two. Lake effect snow showers will continue over Lake Huron and work back onshore over the immediate shoreline of the Thumb to some extent overnight into Thursday. In fact, a few lake effect flurries may even work into a larger portion of the forecast area by Thursday from snow bands working off of Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan. At this time, any notable accumulations will be localized to the Lake Huron shoreline.

A shortwave within the southern stream will shear east around the base of this high pressure tonight and bypass the area to the south with just a bit of higher level cloudiness brushing the area. The next southern stream shortwave will work onshore over California late today and tonight and then work through the southwest CONUS and emerge over the southern plains by early Saturday.

This system has the potential to bring snowfall to parts of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night. However, the northern extent of heavy snowfall that will be associated with this system remains highly in question as the aforementioned high pressure, centered over Quebec by late in the weekend, will act to shunt the northeastward progress of this system as it encroaches on the region. This will become the biggest challenge of the forecast in the coming days. With the high pressure centered more to the east by that time, temperatures will moderate to some degree with highs closer to 30 from Sunday into early next week and lows in the teens to around 20.

MARINE .

Moderate northerly winds continue through tonight and Thursday as an arctic airmass remains overhead leading to increased mixing depths allowing some stronger winds aloft to mix down closer to the surface. Winds will rotate slightly Thursday afternoon to more NW as the center of arctic high pressure drifts from the WI/IL border to near the MI/IN border. Small craft advisories continue through early Thursday afternoon until the aforementioned wind shift pushes the elevated wave field toward the Canadian side of Lake Huron. NNW winds will weaken some Friday as the center high pressure drifts directly over the central Great Lakes region. Winds then shift to easterly Saturday ahead of the next approaching low that will move from the southern Plains into Ohio Valley by Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	58 mi	79 min	NNW 13 G 16	22°F			1027.4 hPa (+2.0)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	75 mi	79 min	NNE 13 G 15	23°F			1027.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	8 mi	24 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	18°F	11°F	76%	1027.1 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI	20 mi	26 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	14°F	8°F	77%	1029.5 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI	22 mi	24 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Light Snow	19°F	13°F	80%	1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)

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