Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 250523 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1223 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

AVIATION.

Sky cover trends progress favorably heading through the late night as a colder and dry NW flow helps break up low clouds. As this process continues, mostly clear sky results across SE MI leaving attention toward Lake Michigan for assessment of stratocu activation as the wind turns toward the west during the morning. High pressure inbound from the Midwest toward the Ohio valley brings the westerly wind shift in Lower MI which carries the cloud field from Lake Michigan into the SE MI terminal corridor by afternoon. The nearly due west flow favors low end VFR broken ceiling more toward FNT and mbS while forecast data indicates greater coverage is also possible toward PTK to the DTW corridor on pace to move into Ontario by Thursday evening.

For DTW . NW wind dropped below crosswind threshold as breaks developed in the clouds during late evening. Light NW to W wind continues through the morning with a brief passing of low end VFR stratocu. VFR ceiling below 5000 ft becomes more likely during the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 feet during afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

DISCUSSION .

Warm sector in advance of approaching cold has remained relatively cloud free over much of the forecast area this morning into early afternoon with temperatures responding and climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s along and south of I-69 with slightly cooler readings north where clouds have been more persistent. With gusty west to southwest winds and dew points into the lower to mid 30s, the slow/steady snow melt that began yesterday has continued.

The aforementioned cold front will progress quickly northwest to southeast across the region from late afternoon into this evening as a compact, yet vigorous, shortwave over northern lower Michigan and northern Lake Huron continues east into Ontario/Quebec tonight. Temperatures will drop into the 30s pretty rapidly this evening as cold air advection ensues with winds veering to the northwest. By early Thursday morning, low temperatures will be back into the teens to lower 20s.

This colder air mass will remain in place into Friday, but with high temperatures only settling into the lower to mid 30s Thursday before rebounding into the upper 30s to around 40 on Friday as the core of the cold air shifts east/southeast through eastern Canada and only grazes the central Lake Greats region.

At the same time, upper heights will build Friday into Saturday as ridging develops downstream of a develop upper trough over the western CONUS. This will lead to moderating temperatures into the weekend with highs well into the 40s in most locations both Saturday and Sunday. There remains a chance of light rain/snow late Friday into into early Saturday morning as a shortwave of Pacific origin ejects into the area as upper energy digs into the west coast.

However, that is really the only notable period for measurable precipitation (and not much at that). The next shortwave to ejects form the western CONUS in a similar fashion passes largely north of the forecast area and phases to some extent with a northern stream component late Sunday into Sunday night. So any precipitation with this system looks to be limited to a few sprinkles/flurries Sunday night into early Monday as this system passes and another cold front settles into the region. The arctic air mass in the wake of this cold front also looks to shift largely east/southeast across eastern Canada early next week with the southern edge impact Southeast Lower Michigan. As such, at this time highs are only expected to settle back into the 30s Monday/Tuesday.

MARINE .

Deepening low pressure system in place over Ontario and its attendant cold front has steadily increased wind speeds across the Great Lakes as wind direction continues to back from the west- southwest to northwest. A secondary cold front, now in place across northern Lake Huron, will reinforce northwesterly flow across the lakes tonight and overnight and will usher in even colder air to the region. A strong pressure gradient already in place from the aforementioned low pressure system in conjunction with a building energetic wind field aloft and increasing instability will allow for gusts on the order of 30 knots to persist late tonight and into the early morning hours, mainly confined to northern and central Lake Huron. Isolated gusts to gales are also possible during this time frame given the northwest fetch in place. Wind speeds and gust potential will then quickly drop off throughout Thursday morning as high pressure builds across the area.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	58 mi	78 min	WNW 5.1 G 8	32°F			1021.7 hPa (+2.7)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	75 mi	78 min	WNW 14 G 17	26°F			1021.3 hPa (+3.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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S7

SW4 G7

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S16 G20

S12 G17

SW11 G15

SW12 G18

SW10 G19

W10 G22

W14 G20

W11 G19

W15 G22

W19 G26

W13 G21

W14 G23

W11 G16

NW10 G15

NW10 G16

NW8 G12

NW9 G12

NW7

NW6

1 day ago

SW8 G17

SW8 G15

SW8 G14

SW9 G17

W14 G18

W14 G18

W12 G19

W14 G20

W11 G20

W13 G21

W13 G19

W16 G24

W17 G26

W13 G21

W11 G14

W11 G14

W10 G17

SW7 G11

SW8 G12

SW8 G13

SW7 G10

SW5 G8

SW5

S4 G7

2 days ago

SW12 G21

SW13 G18

SW13 G22

W15 G19

W14 G20

W17 G24

W16 G24

W14 G24

W14 G24

W15 G24

W16 G23

W10 G24

W9 G16

W13 G20

SW10 G15

SW12 G18

SW11 G16

SW11 G18

SW12 G18

SW15 G23

SW16 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	8 mi	23 min	NW 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	28°F	20°F	71%	1022.7 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI	20 mi	25 min	NW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	28°F	21°F	75%	1023.4 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI	22 mi	23 min	WNW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	26°F	18°F	71%	1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)

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S4

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S11 G18

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SW12 G19

W15 G19

W17 G21

W15 G23

W15 G21

W14 G21

W20 G26

W11 G20

NW13 G22

NW14 G19

NW10 G15

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1 day ago

SW8

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W16 G23

W13 G18

W15 G21

W15 G19

W11 G18

W11 G16

W14 G20

W12 G15

W13 G22

W11 G19

W13 G19

W10

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W4

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2 days ago

S14 G18

S12

S10 G18

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SW11 G20

SW13 G19

SW14 G21

W16 G26

W22 G28

W16 G23

W19 G24

SW15 G21

W11 G16

SW12 G17

SW12 G21

SW8

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S9 G15

S10 G14

SW9 G15

SW11 G17

SW12 G17

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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