Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Bay, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 325 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Today through Friday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Areas of steady light rain/drizzle are concluding early this morning as drier air begins to work into southern Wisconsin. GOES water vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance from Lake Superior north to the Hudson Bay. A surface trough accompanies the aforementioned disturbance, with 3 AM surface observations placing the boundary an approximate Eau Claire to Green Bay line. The aforementioned upper disturbance will progress into the western Great Lakes this afternoon while its attendant surface trough passes through southern Wisconsin. Lift affiliated with both features, combined with just enough lingering low level moisture, could trigger a few isolated rain showers through the late afternoon hours. Any isolated showers will quickly dissipate this evening, giving way to dry conditions through Friday. Below normal high temps will continue, though greater amounts of sunshine will allow for slightly milder conditions on Friday.

Rest Of Overnight: With dry air continuing to move into the region, areas of steady rain/drizzle will dissipate by sunrise. Expect very light (< 0.05") accumulations in any lingering precipitation.

Today: A moderate swimming risk is expected through the afternoon hours at Racine County beaches, where winds and waves will combine to create breaking waves and currents. Avoid piers and breakwalls if heading to the lakeshore. Thicker mid-upper clouds will shift south of the region by mid-morning, allowing for some peaks of sunshine during the late morning and afternoon hours. Attendant surface heating, combined with colder 925-850 mb temperatures moving in with the approaching disturbance, will thus allow widespread cumulus development this afternoon. A sampling of forecast soundings from the 00Z HRRR depict a well-mixed boundary layer from the surface to ~850 mb, with colder temperatures off the surface allowing for steep low level lapse rates & weak instability by late afternoon. With precipitable water values lingering near ~0.4" & additional lift from the encroaching surface trough & upper disturbance, thus wouldn't be surprised to see virga & a few rain showers through this afternoon. Anticipate best overall potential to be along/south of I- 94 & US-18, where the surface trough will arrive later in the afternoon & low level moisture will be best. Have thus inserted some slight chance (~15-20%) precip probabilities across this part of the area in the overnight forecast. Apart from needing an umbrella & the windshield wipers, don't anticipate any appreciable accumulations or impacts in this activity. Any precip will quickly taper by early evening.

Friday: Dry conditions are expected across southern Wisconsin.
Greater amounts of sun will allow for modestly warmer temperatures, particularly outside of east-central Wisconsin.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 325 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Friday night through Wednesday:

Synopsis: Mostly dry weather, with only a few brief / slight chances for light showers. A slow warming trend through the weekend, picking up into mid next week.

Discussion: High pressure remains dominant over the region Saturday, leading to dry and quiet weather. Nearly calm (weak northerly) winds on Saturday will allow for an easterly Lake Breeze circulation to develop, with inland high temperatures moderating up two degrees (mid 60s) and Lake Michigan shoreline temperatures remaining in the mid 50s. As high pressure deepens and weak low pressure tracks northeastward from the southern Great Plains Sunday into Monday, we will observe a steady northeast breeze (around 10 to 15 MPH), leading to similar temperatures. A stray shower cannot be completely ruled out Sunday (10% chance). 15-30% shower chances hold off until Monday.

The warming trend is likely to resume Tuesday and onwards, with inland high temps climbing to the 70s by mid week. A trough in the 500-250mb pattern passes overhead Tuesday, with lingering 15-30% chances for light showers. Otherwise, the extended forecast is looking dry.

Sheppard

AVIATION
Issued 325 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Drier air is moving in from the north early this morning, which has allowed for a return of VFR flight categories at most southern Wisconsin terminals. The lone exception has been at UES, where terrain influences are likely driving continued CIGs below FL010 and prevailing IFR. Have accounted for current trends in the 09Z update.
Latest model guidance suggests that VFR categories could return faster than depicted in the current forecast, so will make further adjustments at 12Z if necessary. Ongoing -DZ/-RA will conclude near or just after daybreak at all fields. Currently northwest winds will trend due northerly this afternoon. Anticipate early day sunshine, with cu development occurring this afternoon. Can't rule out isolated -SHRA along and ahead of a weak upper disturbance & surface boundary, though chances are too low (~15-20%) to justify any mentions in the 09Z update. Will monitor trends through this morning and adjust the forecast if necessary. Any -SHRA will quickly dissipate this evening, with VFR flight categories continuing through the end of the period.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 325 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A weak surface boundary is apparent across the northern half of Lake Michigan this morning, with 2 AM surface observations placing the feature along an approximate Kewaunee, WI - Traverse City, MI line.
The boundary separates northwest winds across the southern Lake Michigan from due northerly winds will further north. The boundary will continue to progress south this morning, bringing a slight northerly wind shift to all of Lake Michigan by this afternoon. With 1002 mb low pressure lingering near Lake Erie, said winds will remain breezy at times, particularly across the eastern half of Lake Michigan. Winds will gradually weaken during the day on Friday as 1024 mb high pressure moves into the northern Great Plains. The aforementioned area of high pressure will progress across Lake Michigan on Saturday, resulting in light in variable winds across the open waters. High pressure will linger across the western Great Lakes on Sunday as 1008 mb low pressure develops in the southern Great Plains, leading to northwest winds across far northern Lake Michigan and northeast winds further south.

Ongoing steady rain will push out of the southern open waters through daybreak. A few isolated rain showers are possible over the extreme northern open waters tonight, though most locations will remain dry. A dry forecast then prevails across the entirety of Lake Michigan through the remainder of the weekend. Rain chances return Monday into Tuesday, particularly across the southern half of Lake Michigan.

Winds and waves have fallen below Small Craft Advisory thresholds in nearshore zones early this morning, and will continue to steadily improve through today as high pressure moves into the Northern Plains. Have thus cancelled the Small Craft Advisory in all zones in the overnight forecast update.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.