Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Bay, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

CAMs suggest that scattered showers and a few storms may develop later tonight in southern Minnesota or northern Iowa, and may shift into areas west of Madison overnight and into south central Wisconsin Sunday morning. This would be driven by modest but focused 850 mb warm air advection. Kept 30 to 50 percent PoPs mainly west of Madison for this possibility, with smaller chances over the rest of south central Wisconsin. Instability is rather weak, so would expect more shower activity than storms.
Confidence remains low to moderate here, so PoPs will need adjusting as we get closer to this period.

Otherwise, quiet conditions are forecast elsewhere tonight into Sunday morning. Lows in the middle 50s east to around 60 far west are expected.

More showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon with peak heating across southern Minnesota and/or northern Iowa, as the focused warm air advection tries to set up there. It tries to extend into west central and northern Wisconsin Sunday night, with possibly more showers and storms developing there.

Again, there is uncertainty with what and where any showers and storms occur, and some CAMs and synoptic scale models keep the forecast area dry or mostly dry, as the more focused 850 mb warm air advection remains to the west and northwest. Kept 20 to 40 percent chances for now in the forecast from south central to east central Wisconsin, and will need further adjustments once trends become more clear.

Highs Sunday should reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, with cooler 60s near Lake Michigan with onshore winds.
Dew points should climb into the lower 60s inland, so it should feel a little more humid.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Warmer and more humid conditions should move into the area Monday, though southeast winds near the lake should keep those areas cooler in the afternoon. Models seem to be showing a warm/stationary front west to east across northern Wisconsin Monday/Monday night, with possibly some weak differential CVA pushing through the area Monday. Not much upward vertical motion near the surface during this time, so not sure if there will be enough for showers and storms to develop. Kept 30 to 40 percent PoPs going for now, as instability increases but deep layer bulk shear remains weak. Confidence remains low, so adjustments to the PoPs will be needed.

Models now seem to bring a cold front southeast toward the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the front possibly being over or southeast of the area by Wednesday as the surface low moves northeast along it. Still a lot of uncertainty here as well with how things will evolve, so kept NBM PoPs going for now. Still have 60 percent or higher PoPs generally later Tuesday night into Wednesday. This period should have better deep layer bulk shear and enough instability for the possibility of stronger storms, but the timing and placement of all of these features will dictate the risk. Will continue to watch this period.

Ensembles are suggesting warm air advection on south to southwest winds later in the week bringing very warm and humid conditions into the area by Saturday and perhaps lasting for a few days. Will continue to monitor temperature trends here.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may develop and/or linger until early this evening, with light to modest east to northeast winds. The winds will become light tonight, then light to modest east to southeast winds on Sunday.

Scattered showers and a few storms may shift into areas west of the Madison terminal overnight and near the Madison and Janesville terminals Sunday morning. Confidence remains low to moderate here, so will likely leave mention out of TAFs at these terminals for now.

Some middle level clouds may push into the area overnight into Sunday morning, with some scattered to perhaps broken diurnal cumulus clouds Sunday afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible into Sunday afternoon from the Janesville to Sheboygan terminals, but confidence is low so will not mention in TAFs at this time.

Wood

MARINE
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure around 30.3 inches along the Ontario and Quebec border will keep winds primarily easterly to northeasterly through the rest of the weekend. Weak low pressure around 29.9 inches in southern Illinois will push east tonight into the Ohio River Valley and weaken on Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday into next week, as the Ontario high pressure system weakens and low pressure approaches the region from the Central Plains.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.