Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albert City, IA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Plenty of instability works into the area from the south through this evening, especially south of I-90, with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg expected. With weak mid and upper level ridging through the afternoon, thunderstorm development looks minimal, but a very weak shortwave will move in this evening into the overnight. This may allow a few storms to develop during the evening, especially closer to the Missouri River near a low level roughly surface to 925 mb front. With weak shear and higher CAPE values will need to watch for slower moving and possibly training cells in a very localized area which could cause some heavy rain. Also lending to the potential for locally heavy rain is a freezing level around 13000 feet. Otherwise the main severe threat would be hail to half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph. DCAPE values appear to top out around 1100 J/kg near the Missouri River late afternoon into the evening. The latest high resolution models are inconsistent with activity this afternoon and evening although most of the models have little to no activity until at least 23z , but with the weak ridging in the afternoon and the weak wave tonight, holding off any better development until this evening makes sense. Likely the best chance will be from about 6 pm to 10 pm.

Later tonight some elevated warm advection may spark some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over mostly southwest MN. While severe weather is unlikely, CAPE values around 1000-15000 J/kg could lead to quarter sized hail and possibly some locally heavy downpours with some slower storm motion.

Sunday morning cold see some lingering chances east of I-29 but confidence on this is pretty low. What looks to be a possibly better chance will be Sunday afternoon and evening as that weak overnight wave moves through the area. Locations east of about Highway 81 will see CAPE values approach 2000-2500 J/kg with eastern SD into northwest IA the most likely location for this higher instability and what appears to be a weakening capping inversion. Once again shear is pretty weak so expect locally heavy rainfall, hail to ping pong ball and wind gusts to 65 mph to be the main threats. While tornadoes are very unlikely there may be a little warm front around the MN/IA border as well as some potential left behind outflow boundaries, so that will be something to watch for as well.

Later Sunday night into Monday morning might be a lull in potential as weak ridging moves through behind of the exiting wave and ahead of the incoming wave. Confidence on Monday afternoon and evening is pretty low but do think that there will be some activity. Both the Nam and GFS are pushing 3000-3500 J/kg CAPE with some moderate mid and upper level winds from 30-50 knots. This could allow for a disorganized multi cellular cluster to see some cell mergers and strengthen into a supercell or two. Still too far out for any real confidence, but something to watch out for.

While confidence on a stronger wave for Monday night into Tuesday is pretty high, the locations of the convective activity is pretty low.
The models do seem a touch quicker with the wave so that may suppress the stronger activity southward for the afternoon and evening. Definitely a wait and see for Tuesday.

Wednesday into Saturday will see northwest flow aloft give way to a fairly strong ridge, so highs in the 90s may become fairly common late neat week and into next weekend. Spotty chances for showers and thunderstorms but no big signs on anything specific at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Much of the IFR fog has lifted, but some of these lower conditions will likely linger across southwest MN into the afternoon, and then redevelop later tonight and continue into Sunday morning. Any IFR conditions that develop tonight in southwest MN could leak southwest into far eastern SD and northwest IA as well. Otherwise, shower and thunderstorm chances look a little lower through the period. May see some very late afternoon and evening storms mainly near the Missouri River into parts of northwest IA. If these storms can develop, a few could become severe. Late evening into the overnight hours far eastern SD and southwest MN may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop with a low chance for severe. Southwest MN may see some of this scattered activity continue into the morning. Some spotty showers will also be possible in central SD late tonight into Sunday morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.