Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: A large upper low continues to track northeast through the Dakotas, likely to end up in northeastern Minnesota by Friday morning. Persistent stratus will rotate around this trough through the afternoon, but showers may lift northward by 00z. Enough clearing is taking place near or south of the MO river for some instability showers to form, which may continue into the evening.
Winds are continuing to increase this afternoon as 40 to 50 mph winds mix down.

TONIGHT: Lingering instability showers dissipate early this evening. More persistent light rains may drift north of Highway 14 this evening and into the overnight hours. Winds may also subside south of I-90 and will allow wind advisory to expire in some areas along and south of I-90. Moisture rotating around the western side of the upper trough will begin to sink back southward towards daybreak Friday, bringing showers southward with it. More uncertain is the potential for persistent mix down of 45 to 55 mph winds with the showers into Friday morning.
CAMS certainly suggest potential for high wind warning gusts along the 14 corridor, but these models may also overdue strong winds overnight.

FRIDAY: The upper low begins to settle back southward and fill on Friday, pushing rain chances across the CWA through the day. Rain amounts won't be significant, but persistent showers may add up to a tenth or two. Winds however will also increase and any breaks in the clouds will push stronger gusts downward. Will extend a wind advisory across the entire CWA

SATURDAY: Dry air gets pulled into this system Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain to and end, but likely keeping stratus around into Saturday morning. Lows will be quite chilly falling into the lower 40s. Highs on Saturday afternoon are expected to remain well below normal, only climbing into the lower to middle 50s in most locations, and a few 60s near the Missouri River.

SUNDAY: Mid-lvl warm advection and moisture return begins on Sunday, pulling an increase in cloud cover and potential for light sprinkles to showers through central South Dakota during the first half of the day. Elsewhere, drier easterly surface flow will keep temperatures cool with highs in the 60s.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Medium range guidance remains in strong agreement that a large upper trough will move through the western CONUS and begin to influence the Plains early in the week. Broad warm advection showers and thunderstorms develop over the Central Plains Sunday night, and will spread northward into the Mid and upper Missouri River valley on Monday. Rainfall probabilities remain high at nearly 90%, with 1" QPF probabilities from the GEFS/ECMWF pushing 50% in some areas. More uncertainty develops in regards to the track and depth of the upper low that moves into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. ECMWF remains slightly further north with the upper low than the GFS/CMC keeping a rain chance over the entire CWA through Tuesday. Outside of some initial elevated convection during the onset of the event, severe weather risks remain low through the period. Temperatures are also expected to remain near to slightly below seasonal normals.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Most of the area will see VFR conditions overnight, although MVFR stratus will move into the US Hwy 14 corridor overnight.
This stratus sinks south through the day Friday, leading to widespread MVFR to patchy IFR conditions. Showers on-going tonight near US Hwy 14 will also move south and expand over the area during the day Friday, so could see some MVFR visibility with heavier showers.

Strong westerly winds continue, with gusts 30 to 40+ knots for most of the period, tapering off after sunset Friday. Areas along and south of I-90 could see some LLWS with gusts diminishing overnight - although expect these to increase as we approach/pass daybreak Friday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for SDZ060>062-065>070.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for SDZ071.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for SDZ038>040-050-052>059- 063-064.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ089-090-098.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ071-072-080-081-097.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for IAZ001-002.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for IAZ003-012>014- 020>022-031-032.
NE...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ013-014.