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LOZ044 Expires:202309230900;;837178 Fzus51 Kbuf 230242 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1042 pm edt Fri sep 22 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-230900- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1042 pm edt Fri sep 22 2023
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 70 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 230601 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 201 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control of our weather through this evening. Active weather returns to the region this weekend, as tropical storm Ophelia moves along the Atlantic seaboard, bringing periods of rain to much of the area. Some showers could linger into Monday, then a return to drier and seasonable weather is expected for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1245 AM Update...

For this update the onset of precipitation this morning in NE PA and the southern Catskills was slowed down a little bit and the progression northward this afternoon afternoon was also cut back a bit as well. Nearly all of the deterministic models and CAMs have come in slower and drier through Saturday night, so we'll continue to monitor that trend. Otherwise, there were just some slight adjustments to sky cover and temps mainly just blending in the latest obs.

930 PM update...

Once again, there was little that needed to be changed with this update. One change was to cut back on the onset timing of fog development. While conditions may be favorable for some patchy valley fog, there is some uncertainty on if the high clouds from TS Ophelia will limit cooling and fog development. PoPs for Saturday morning were updated based on some more recent guidance, though the end result was minor compared to the previous forecast. Sky cover was also updated based on satellite. The rest of the forecast was doing well and need no changes at this time.

600 PM update...

For this update, only minor updates were needed. Sky cover was updated as the clouds from Ophelia push northward. Hourly temps and winds were touched up to better match the latest obs. Other than these changes, the forecast remains on track.

314 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the onset of rain Saturday morning which will continue into the afternoon, and the potential for gusty northeast winds due to the presence of the remnants of Ophelia.

Current synoptic setup across the region is defined by an axis of high pressure that extends east-west from off the New England coast to the eastern Great Lakes. The large scale suppression under this high, combined with a wedge of dry air to the north, will continue to keep weather conditions dry through the rest of today and most of tonight.

The primary forcing mechanism for rain this weekend will be from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia that is currently situated off the Carolina coast and will move north/nwwd through the mid Atlantic tonight and Saturday. As this system moves north it is expected to transition to an extra-tropical cyclone and encounter an area of much drier air. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this system actually evolves and transitions. It appears there will be a northern branch of rain more associated with large scale forcing from an exiting jet streak well to the north that will be responsible for the first round of rain on Saturday. The consensus is for the rain to begin across ne PA around 7-10 AM and then slowly spread north into the southern tier of NY and the western Catskills through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. A broad area of a quarter to half inch of rain is expected (60-80 pct probability) during this time.

A tight sfc pres gradient will encroach on the area on Saturday as well which will induce sustained winds around 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph...especially the higher terrain of ne PA.

Low temperatures tonight will be mitigated by the increasing cloud cover. Expect temps down into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Temperatures on Saturday will be wide ranging with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Finger Lakes and the wrn Mohawk Valley...and only into the upper 50s in the southern Catskills and a good portion of ne PA.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
314 PM update...
The bulk of the transition to an extra tropical cyclone will occur late Sat and Sat night when the core of the storm becomes cold and the moisture source from the Atlantic is shut off and shifts to the east as the remnants of Ophelia drift slowly to the northeast from MD/VA into southern New England. There will likely still be enough deep moisture left over to produce periods of steady rain and some embedded heavier bursts, but given the lack of synoptic scale forcing and any significant instability, the threat of heavy rain looks to be on the lower end.

The one other concern will be the slow-moving nature of the rain given the lack of a strong steering flow. The persistent rain over areas that may already be saturated could lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in the typical flood prone areas and low-lying or urban locations. Confidence in flooding is still too low to promote the issuance of a Watch.

Rain is expected to persist during the day Sunday, mainly along and southeast of a line from Elmira to Binghamton to Cooperstown. The threat for heavy rain over already saturated surfaces will persist through the day and into late Sunday, but the threat should be mostly isolated in nature. An additional half to 1 inch of rain is possible from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Locally higher amounts to 2 inches are not out of the question...in the area mentioned above.

East/northeast winds should remain gusty through Sunday with sustained winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, in the higher terrain of the Catskills and Poconos. High temperatures will remain quite mild...only into the 60s for much of the region.

The remnants of the storm will finally exit to the east on Monday and allow the rain to come to an end from nw to se. Lows Sunday night will drop into the 50s and then climb back into the mid to upper 60s, close to 70 Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
314 PM update...
By Monday night, sprawling high pressure will be centered over Quebec, with continental E-NE flow promoting dry conditions, with the remnants of Ophelia suppressed to our south over the Mid- Atlantic states. Kept PoPs a little drier than the NBM given the overall pattern. Also note that the 12Z ECMWF is drier than its previous run which was likely influencing NBM PoPs higher.

All that said, expect a semi-prolonged dry and quiet period much of next week , with seasonal temperatures, and some seasonably chilly mornings, especially by mid-week as high pressure settles further south, and conditions become more favorable for strong radiational cooling at night.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to stream northward, but nearly all terminals will remain at VFR through 12z. With the high clouds around and brief pockets of clearing from time to time, there still remains some uncertainty with regards to fog formation for ELM between 08-14Z, so maintained MFVR conditions from previous TAF with a TEMPO for IFR or worse.

Showers will move from south to north gradually during the day Saturday, reaching AVP around 16Z resulting in MVFR conditions.
However, if some of the showers later in the afternoon and early can be on the heavier side, then there is the potential for fluctuations to fuel-alt or IFR levels. Shower activity around BGM and ELM are not expected to be heavy enough during the TAF period to see drops below VFR. After 02Z Sunday, guidance does hint at the potential for some LLWS at AVP, so this will be monitored.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night... Restrictions at KAVP with clouds and rain. Restrictions possible at KBGM, KELM and KITH.

Monday: Restrictions slowly lifting.

Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with sprawling high pressure in control.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Albany
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Sat -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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