Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sherburne, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

1020 AM Update...

Just a few isolated showers or maybe a t'storm expected this afternoon and evening, but not expecting anything severe.
Temperatures were adjusted up slightly close to the bias corrected guidance for this afternoon, and it will be a warm one with highs in the 80s to around 90 in some of the valley locations. SPC adjusted the day 1 severe outlook for tonight into early Sunday morning, bringing the marginal and slight risk categories further north. This make sense based on the latest observations and updates to the CAMs. Will continue to closely monitor trends in the near term guidance to better determine how the thunderstorm potential may play out late tonight into Sunday morning.

630 AM Update...

No changes made to the previous forecast. A few storms are developing off of the warm front lifting in but coverage through the morning will be spotty.

430 AM Update...

A strong ridge of high pressure builds in today with 500 mb heights rising to near 590 dm by Saturday night. A warm front at the leading edge of the ridge is moving through tonight with potential for a few showers and thunderstorms to form along it this morning into the early afternoon. Subsidence with the ridge will likely keep most of the region dry but the increasing 850 mb winds and moisture may be enough to get a few cells to break through the cap into the elevated instability.

Tonight there is concern with strong storms that could move in.
A large MCS with widespread damaging winds has formed in the Norther Plains and will propagate along the northern fringe of the ridge through today. It wont arrive in our region until overnight, likely after midnight tonight. Most of the models have the ridge of high pressure building in with the northern edge pushing north of our region. Given that, odds are most of the storms will be north but some of the high res models are trying to get some of the cold pool to push south into the ridge and trigger storms. Forecast soundings have a sizable subsidence inversion so it will be tough for any storms to really push much south of CNY. Given that historically models have performed poorly on these "ring of fire" storms around the edge of a ridge, and the northern edge of the ridge tends to end up farther north than modeled, leads to lower confidence in the storms actually reaching as far south as some of the models show. Still if storms were to fire, mid level lapse rates are 8+ C/km and elevated instability over 3000 J/kg, large hail and very strong wind gusts are possible if storms can develop.

Sunday is looking hot and muggy with 500 mb heights getting up near 600 dm which is near all time recored heights. Dry air above the mixed layer may help limit dew points to the upper 60s and low 70s but if dry air does not mix in or evapotranspiration is able to keep up with mixing, dew points may be in the low to mid 70s. Highs Sunday push into the upper 80s and low 90s so widespread head indices of 100+ are likely.
Limiting factors to the heat is that forecast soundings do have weak capping. Last year when we had a similar set up with very strong ridging and high heat and humidity, showers and thunderstorms were able to form in the late morning and early afternoon and that ended up dropping temperatures before they were able to get as warm as forecast so that could occur again.
Heat advisories were issued for now but if forecast trend higher with temps and dew points, heat advisories will be upgraded to warnings as needed.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 AM Update...

With the strong ridge in place Sunday Night into Monday, all of Central NY and NE PA are under Heat Advisories from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Strong high pressure will keep conditions precipitation free, but overall high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s with highs in the low to high 90s lead to oppressive heat indices between the mid 90s to mid 100s for Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, dewpoints stay rather high overnight in the high 60s to low 70s, with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, leaving no room for overnight relief. This will likely verify as the first heat wave of 2025 for some areas in Central NY and NE PA, which is defined as 3 consecutive days of high temperatures reaching 90 degrees.
All week will be very warm; remember to stay hydrated, take breaks in shade as often as possible, and on your neighbors and others who may not have air conditioning. For more heat safety tips, please visit www.weather.gov/heat.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM Update...

Main story in this period will continue to be very hot and humid conditions, with increasing shower and thunderstorm potential.

The center of the upper level ridge/high drops south Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. This will open the door for showers and thunderstorms to move through our area on the northern periphery of this feature. Temperatures gradually decrease, but it will still be very warm to hot on Wednesday with mid-80s to low 90s expected, with generally 80s expected for highs Thursday and next Friday.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TAFs are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours.
There could be a few thunderstorms pop up this afternoon near ELM, BGM, and AVP but they are too isolated to include in the TAFs at this time. RME and SYR may see thunderstorms after 6Z tonight if they can drop far enough south.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Overnight thunderstorms possible, especially over NY with associated restrictions.

Sunday thru Wednesday...High pressure with VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.