Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sherburne, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Widespread rain is expected through tonight into Friday morning. Rain is expected to transition to freezing rain tonight for parts of the Poconos, Catskills, and Mohawk Valley.

2) A cold front will bring another round of rain showers on Saturday, especially late in the day and in the evening. A few thunderstorms may also develop and result in gusty winds, mainly west of I-81.

3) Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through much of next week. This warm weather, combined with multiple rounds of rainfall will bring an increasing risk for some flooding, perhaps including isolated ice jams.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Occasional rounds of rainfall will continue to impact the area through tonight and into Friday morning, as a stationary frontal of boundary continues to be situated across the Mid-Atlantic region. Afternoon temperatures have been above freezing area- wide (mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s), so the form of precipitation has been just rain so far.

However as temperatures fall below freezing tonight, the threat for freezing rain returns across the eastern portion of the region, especially the Catskills, Poconos and Mohawk Valley. In addition to the existing Winter Weather Advisories that were in effect for the Oneida, Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan counties in NY, a Winter Weather Advisory has now also been issued for Wayne and Pike counties in PA. Most locations will likely receive less than one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation, but some of the highest peaks of the Catskills could receive closer to one quarter of an inch of ice. Across some of the lower elevations, temperatures will be extremely marginal, so even if some freezing rain were to occur, it likely would only accumulate on elevated surfaces.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of a warm front Saturday morning, our region will be in the warm sector with temperatures rising to the mid 50s to mid 60s for most areas. After a morning batch of showers, some partial sunshine may break out as well. Then by the evening, a cold front will move through the area, which will bring another round of rain showers. While instability will be low, 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear will likely be present and as a result, some of these showers and isolated thunderstorms may result in locally damaging winds, mainly west of I-81. The greater risk of severe thunderstorms would likely be west of our region across western PA and western NY, but there is a small potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. As a result, SPC has parts of our region west of I-81 highlighted in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms in their Day 3 Convective Outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Multiple rounds of rain combined with warmer temperatures will cause rivers and streams to continue to rise this weekend into early next week. As mentioned in Key Message 2, temperatures Saturday are expected to be well above average with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. PWATs will also be around or slightly above one inch, which is anomalously high for this time of year. This may lead to locally heavy downpours and continued rises on rivers and streams. River ensemble forecasts show several forecast points potentially reaching action stage with the possibility of minor flooding at a few locations. Despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures Sunday will remain above normal with highs mainly in the 50s. Southwest flow returns early next week allowing temperatures to remain in the 50s and 60s and possibly even warmer by midweek. Rivers and streams will need close monitoring during this timeframe for potential flooding, including possible isolated ice jams.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A system will push across the region this afternoon into tonight.
Showers impact the area this afternoon, then steady moderate rain overspreads the region this evening with widespread IFR/LIFR restrictions expected. Widespread low ceilings and fog should linger even after the steady rain ends (07-10z) lasting through at least the late morning hours Friday. CIGs and visibilities begin to slowly lift and gradually improve toward the end of this taf period; but CIGs still remain borderline IFR/MVFR Fuel Alt...while visibilities come up to 6-10 SM as the mist dissipates.

SYR and RME do not see rain until the late afternoon hours and IFR visibility and ceilings are expected by late afternoon or early this evening here. RME could also see temperatures dip below freezing late tonight and a period of freezing rain will be possible (but this is a low chance at this time, so freezing rain or sleet was not included in the RME TAF).

Outlook:

Friday Afternoon - Saturday...IFR or lower CIGs linger much of the time; some improvement west to MVFR Saturday afternoon, before CIGs could drop lower again Saturday night. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a front moves through Saturday evening into tonight.

Sunday.. MVFR CIGs possible in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday for PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ009-037-046-057-062.