Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orchard Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 4:43PM Saturday December 14, 2019 10:35 PM EST (03:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1237 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday evening...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog. Rain and snow early, then snow late.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow in the evening, then scattered snow showers overnight.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Scattered snow showers in the morning.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 40 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201912142215;;780192 FZUS51 KBUF 141737 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1237 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-142215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orchard Park, NY
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location: 42.76, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 150102 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 802 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Deepening low pressure along the NY and Quebec border will track over eastern Quebec the rest of tonight. Rain has changed to snow over all of western and north central NY including to the east of Lake Ontario. System snow will taper off later tonight and Sunday, with lingering lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. There will be a brief break Sunday afternoon through most of Monday before the next area of low pressure moves just south the region with snow and a wintry mix Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. . Accumulating Wet Snow Tonight .

Rain has changed to snow across all the forecast area, even along the Lake Ontario shore in Monroe and Wayne counties. Deepening low down to 982mb is now along the NY/Quebec border continue lifting north into Quebec (deepening to less than 980mb through the rest of the night).

Thus far, snow totals in western NY and toward Finger Lakes have reached up to 5 inches (far southern Erie county) and up to 3 inches (Bristol Hills area in Ontario county). Moderate snow is still occurring. Amounts in the Buffalo area closer to Lake Erie have been an inch or two, due in large part to very low SLRs (only 4:1 with our ob at 7 PM as we had 1.2 inches of snow with 0.29 inches of liquid). For updated reports see PNSBUF and LSRBUF. Based on satellite/colder cloud tops and regional radar trends, looking at probably amother hour or two of moderate snow to contend with over western NY as comma head of the deepening cyclone and additional shortwave cross the region from southwest to northeast. Steady snow will quickly taper off from west to east by late evening, with westerly upslope flow allowing the snow to last a little longer across the higher terrain east of the lakes. Possible that lower elevations of WNY could even see some dz/fzdz as that occurs later this evening before deeper moisture and sufficient cooling in the lake effect convective layer ensure snow is ptype.

From here on out, relatively warm column and very marginal surface temperatures will continue to yield very poor snow to water ratios probably a little better across higher terrain where surface temperatures are slightly cooler. Later tonight the ratios will improve, but by this time the bulk of the synoptic snow will be over.

Given the above expectations, expect additional accumulations of 2-5 inches in the Winter Storm Warning area to the east of Lake Erie. The higher accumulations will be elevation dependent in this area, with the higher end of the range likely confined to the hills, with less in the valleys and much less along the Lake Erie shore including the NY Thruway corridor. Farther north and east, expect an additional 1-2 inches on average for the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley, and western Finger Lakes. There will be some elevation dependency in this area as well, with greater accumulations inland from the lakes (Genesee county eastward toward northern Finger Lakes) and less near the lakeshores where surface temperatures will stay slightly warmer.

East of Lake Ontario, snow is just getting going with recent report of change to snow on the Tug Hill at Redfield. This event will be over a longer duration given that some of the snow will be from lake enhanced upslope flow Sunday morning following the main synoptic event tonight. Expect 3-5 inches across the lower elevations (less near Lake Ontario), and 5-9 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. The higher accumulations will be limited to a small portion of the Tug Hill region where elevation is the highest. We will continue to monitor this area for a possible upgrade, but given the snow will fall over a longer period of time and the higher amounts will be isolated to the top of the Tug Hill, an advisory still seems reasonable.

Finally, it is beginning to turn breezy as the surface low continues to deepen across eastern Quebec. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph across much of the region, highest on the lake plains close to Lake Ontario. The snow will be quite wet and sticky given the marginal temperatures through this evening, so blowing snow will not be much of an issue at first. Some blowing snow will develop later tonight through Sunday in open areas once temperatures turn colder and the snowfall becomes drier.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect snow showers will be diminishing east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as high pressure slides from west to east across the region Sunday night. Low pressure will be developing across the lower Mississippi Valley as a shortwave trough moves into the Central Plains Sunday night. Cyclogenesis will occur as it moves into the Central Appalachians and interacts with the right entrance region of an upper level jet Monday. The low-level jet with this system looks to stay south of the New York State border and the northern fringe of the precipitation shield will approach the area. There is a chance of light snow Monday afternoon across the southern half of western NY. Dry conditions are expected in vicinity of Lake Ontario including the North Country.

Mostly dry conditions will change Monday night when the shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley and further interacts with the surface low over the central Appalachians. Increased lift and moisture will move across western and north central NY. Cold air advection will increase across the region and snow will spread across the region Monday night through Tuesday. While there will be some lake enhancement when the synoptic moisture diminishes, widespread snow will end from west to east by Tuesday afternoon. A few inches of snowfall accumulation are possible across the region Monday night-Tuesday. At this time, accumulation looks to stay under headline issuance however, this will depend on the track and location of the deformation zone which will be watched in the coming days.

Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night. A mid-level trough will move southeast into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. This will bring moisture and further intensify cold air advection across the region. Lake effect snow showers will increase during this time.

Temperatures will average slightly below normal with highs in the low to mid 30s Monday and Tuesday and lows in the low to mid 20s Sunday night through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A closed mid level low will track from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Wednesday. Surface low pressure is expected to track across southern Ontario and Quebec during this time. This will drag a cold front through western and north central NY. Guidance has been locked on that 850mb temperatures will fall to around -20C producing extreme lake induced instability mid-week. West-northwest flow will likely lead to lake effect snow east-southeast of the Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. The steepening lapse rates may also increase the risk of snow squalls Wednesday afternoon outside of lake bands.

While conditions look favorable for lake effect snow, this event also looks short-lived. A mid-level ridge will move into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday which will veer winds and cut off moisture. Drier weather expected late in the week while temperatures remain below normal.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. All areas are now snow as deep low is now lifting into Quebec. Steady wet snow will gradually taper off from west to east late this evening and overnight, to be replaced by more localized, limited lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Widespread IFR CIGS continue through this evening as low stratus dominates the entire area. VSBY is mainly IFR though there will be occasional LIFR as well. IFR VSBY this evening will become more limited to just the lake effect snow areas east of the lakes later tonight and Sunday morning. CIGS will eventually become more MVFR as Sunday wears on while VSBY will become VFR. Expect VFR conditions for all the terminals by Sunday evening.

Outlook . Monday . VFR deteriorating to IFR Monday night with snow developing. A wintry mix possible near the PA state line. Tuesday . IFR in snow in the morning, improving to mainly VFR. Wednesday and Thursday . A chance of IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere.

MARINE. A deepening low moving northward along the NY and Quebec border will lift across eastern Quebec through Sunday morning, while continuing to deepen. Westerly winds will continue to increase on Lake Ontario with gale force winds for the rest of the night. Westerly gales will continue through Sunday before starting to diminish Sunday night. A gale warning continues for most of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong on Lake Erie farther removed from the strong low. Sustained winds will likely peak around 30 knots on Lake Erie.

Winds will diminish Sunday night as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales developing on Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

On Lake Erie, winds will remain lighter, in the 25-30 knot range. The wind direction is also due west, which is not quite aligned with the long axis of the lake and less favorable for a seiche. With this in mind, just expect a minor rise at the east end of Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019-020- 085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Sunday night for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi54 min W 20 G 23 36°F 37°F998.7 hPa31°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 16 mi54 min 38°F 998.8 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 26 mi54 min 36°F 998.4 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 37 mi36 min W 27 G 31 38°F 998.7 hPa (+1.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 40 mi96 min W 26 G 30 38°F 997.3 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY12 mi42 minWSW 13 G 226.00 miFog/Mist35°F32°F89%998.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE4NE6N5N4NE4NE5NE6N5N7N7NW10N11NW11NW10NW7NW10W12W13W11W12W14W13W13
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1 day agoS9S12S10S11S11S9S10S11SE6S8S5S8S10S10S7S10S7S8S7SE4SE5SE4SE4S6
2 days agoW8W6SW5W6SW5W5W4S3SE4SE5SE5SE4S5S7SW7S6S3SW3S4SE5E4S7CalmS7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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