Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beechwood, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

- Scattered Showers and Storms Tonight

Another round of showers and storms is expected to move through after 8pm tonight. Storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds being the primary hazard, but can't rule out hail or a tornado with this evenings storms.

We'll need to monitor convection currently in Missouri as it tracks northeast into southern Michigan and the showers and storms that develop in Wisconsin as they move across the lake. There is some uncertainty with the exact variables in play this evening.
Model solutions vary with the amount of instability available along with the LCL values as storms approach. Hence why we can't completely rule out any one hazard.

There is higher confidence in the source of lift with the 500 mb positive vorticity advection with the upper level low currently over Minnesota and with the 850mb 40 to 45 knot jet also bringing with in some moisture. Showers and storms will also be moving into a more mixed out environment, meaning there is an ample amount of dry air toward the surface. Downdraft CAPE values will be in the 800 to 1000 J/kg range as storms approach leading to the higher confidence in the damaging wind potential.

- Gusty Winds and Lingering Rain Showers Saturday

As the previously mentioned upper level low tracks through the northern Great Lakes, low level moisture and lift will bring some lingering showers to the area Saturday. It will also bring gusty westerly winds with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. As the low departs Saturday night winds subside and dry conditions return.
Highs Saturday are only expected to be in the 50s to low 60s.

- Cooler Temperatures into Next Week

Pressure heights increase Sunday into Monday with dry conditions expected. Thereafter the pattern becomes a little less certain looking at the ensemble clusters and the 500mb flow. An upper level low will be in the vicinity but the timing and placement vary based on each cluster which impacts our rain chances through the remainder of the week. It does look like most of the rain will be to our south, but the placement of the low will determine how far north rain will spread. Either way it doesn't look like a total washout, but temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. Sunday night and Monday night there is a chance for temperatures to drop into the mid to low 30s for areas north of I-96. These temperatures could result in frost damaging susceptible vegetation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Radar has become more active over western Lower during the past hour or so. Latest models indicate that we'll see a broken line of convection move across the terminals this evening with showers possible overnight. Cigs will fall to MVFR by sunrise and remain there the rest of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Thunderstorms will be possible again tonight and may produce strong winds. Gusty southerly winds continue and become more westerly into Saturday as low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. Waves build into Saturday with heights of 4 to 7 feet. Winds and waves gradually subside Saturday night. Northwest winds may pick back up to Small Craft Advisory levels Sunday afternoon.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.