Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caledonia, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Thunderstorms Possible in SE Lower Michigan This Afternoon

About 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present around Jackson this afternoon with little inhibition and moderately steep lapse rates to 700 mb. Some showers or thunderstorms may pop up but chances are iffy as the lower atmosphere will generally have speed divergence. Any storms that do develop could produce hail or gusty winds while quickly moving east and intensifying as they leave our area.

- Frost/Freeze the Next Three Nights

Another cool airmass delivered by the persistent synoptic troughing over the Canadian Shield will bring nightly frost/freeze potential as high pressure noses into the region through Monday night. Mostly clear skies and light winds are favored to set up radiational cooling with object "skin" temperatures reaching near the freezing point while 2-meter temperatures dip into the mid 30s. 2-meter temperatures may outright go below 32 in the typically cooler spots of Central Michigan each night. After a warm and wet March and April, the sensitivity to freezing temperatures is higher than usual.

Can't rule out another frost setup in interior Central Michigan Wed night to Thu morning under the 10-25 percent chance cooler scenarios of a high pressure system quickly moving in behind Tue- Wed's low pressure system. But after that, the pattern does seem to shift toward warmer than normal in the 8-14 day outlook.

- Rain Likely, Chance Thunderstorm Tuesday

An Alberta Clipper type of low will deepen as it moves toward Michigan on Tuesday. Rain is likely in the midlevel warm air and moisture advection ahead of the low. Instability is rather meager in the models as 700-500 mb temperatures will be fairly warm resulting in modest lapse rates, so thunderstorm chances will be less than the likelihood of rain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 638 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR cumulus will dissipate and winds subside over the next several hours as daytime heating is lost. Mostly clear to clear skies are expected overnight with generally light and variable winds.
Beginning late Sunday morning, daytime Cu are forecast to develop, especially for the inland terminals, with bases at or above 6kft.
Winds will also increase with 10-15 knot winds with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated higher gusts are possible, similar today, but limited confidence in placement and extent of gusts warrants keeping higher gusts out with this package. These gusty winds and VFR cigs will continue through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Winds are relaxing this afternoon and allowing 3 to 5 foot waves to diminish to 2 to 4. High resolution models suggest a brief surge of northerly winds near Big and Little Sable Points between 8 and 11 PM this evening, with wind speeds about 15-20 knots.

Waves will remain fairly low Sunday and Monday, then strengthening south winds related to an approaching low pressure system on Tuesday will build up hazardous waves for small craft.
Hazardous conditions should continue into Wednesday with west- northwest winds.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ037-043>046.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ038>040.
MARINE...None.