DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

- Continued mainly dry conditions with warming temperatures

We will see dry conditions continue to dominate through the end of the work week, with temperatures slowly warming each day. Humidity levels do not look to be to bad with dew points staying mostly in the 50s.

The only caveat to the dominating dry conditions will be a batch of mid clouds affecting much of Lower Michigan through today. These mid clouds are associated with a weakening mid level short wave that is over Wisconsin early this morning.

Forecast soundings show moisture will be tough to get much below 12k ft agl with plenty of dry air below. Worse case scenario looks to be maybe a few light sprinkles through today. These will be of no consequence or impact.

Otherwise, the short wave moves through later today, and upper ridging builds back over the area ahead of a digging trough over the Pacific NW. This will provide for plenty of subsidence, and 850 mb temperatures inching up to the mid to upper teens C. These temps aloft will continue to support max temps well into the 80s.

- Low confidence for tropical moisture arriving next weekend

Gulf moisture makes a run towards Michigan but may not get here until later in the weekend if at all. Model trends are for the remnant low of Francine to stall and dissipate in the vicinity of southern Illinois by Saturday with northward progress of the low impeded by a blocking high to the northeast of Lower Michigan.

Sensible weather will feature dry weather with above normal temperatures through Saturday. The blended model forecast brings low chance POPs in Saturday night and lingering into early next week in the blocking pattern. There is the possibility that the blocking high moves east and forces another tropical cyclone off the Carolina coast to retrograde inland and northeast and both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs show the moisture with this low approaching Michigan from the southeast in the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Any shallow ground fog will be dissipating early today then VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. Winds will be light with some gusts today to 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

We do not anticipate any marine headlines needed through the foreseeable future. The only chance of one (albeit a very small chance) would be one maybe needed for any marine fog that might develop like yesterday. Some things going against that is the colder upwelled waters should moderate a bit, lowering the threat. Also, the flow may be just enough to keep things at least a little bit mixed since we will not be right under the high.

Otherwise the flow will stay under 15 knots or so through the end of the week and into the weekend. This should keep waves under 3 ft also.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.