Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newburyport, MA

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues this evening and overnight with some urban and poor drainage flooding possible. Rain will be heavy at times southeast MA and RI where flood risk is greatest.

- Cooler and drier conditions arrive next week, though it could turn unsettled once more towards the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain gradually ends this morning. Rain will be heavy at times southeast MA and RI, where flood risk is greatest. Another round of lighter showers this afternoon into Sunday.

Broad low pressure along a stalled front across eastern MA and RI will slowly move offshore this afternoon and evening. This low pressure should finally reach Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia around daybreak Sunday.

While this means the widespread rainfall should be offshore by this afternoon, we will still have to contend with a rather potent mid level low. This low should pass overhead tonight. The colder air aloft will result in increased lapse rates, which in turn should generate some showers later today and tonight.
These showers will be much lighter in intensity. The greatest coverage of showers should be towards northern MA.

Above normal temperatures continue yet again today, but will be trending closer to normal. Expecting only slightly above normal temperatures for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and drier conditions arrive next week, though it could turn unsettled once more towards the second half of the week.

Colder air aloft continues to shift into southern New England for the start of next week as yet another upper level trough tracks into the region. This is a bit more notable at 850 mb and 500 mb, where temperatures fall to just below 0C and to around -24C at those respective levels. With cooler air aloft and a passing shortwave just to our north, we could see some showers around Monday. 925 mb temperatures fall to around 2-4C by Monday night, supporting lows falling further into the 30s and low 40s, with highs Tuesday and the start of the week generally in the 50s to low 60s. Cooler nights will persist through the week.

NAEFS and other ensemble guidance indicate no significant deviations from the climatological percentiles for temperatures or moisture for this coming week, though did note 90th percentile zonal winds aloft Monday into Wednesday just to the south of the region. Persistent westerly flow with notably breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday is expected. Winds generally stay westerly through much of the week, given the series of fronts expected to move through the region. With the drier conditions (PWATS to around 0.5" and less and dew points back in the 30s and 40s) at the surface, not much in the way of precipitation is expected with these frontal passages; just cooler air. Occasional cloudiness is expected at most with passing moist air aloft.

Towards the second half of next week, guidance has started to pick up on the possible development of another low pressure originating from just to the south of the region along/just off the mid- Atlantic coast. This looks to be driven by the approach of an upper level shortwave tracking from Canada southeast into the mid-Atlantic region. With this possible system, we could see the return of more unsettled conditions for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence on trends, lower confidence on exact timing and details.

Slow improvement to MVFR farther west towards BDL this afternoon. Many areas may remain IFR through the day based on the latest guidance. Winds going more NE this morning shift more towards the NW and WNW in the afternoon and evening hours, and generally remain at or below 10 kt.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

IFR/MVFR ceilings in scattered rain showers overnight. West winds start light and increase through the overnight hours; 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kt, except for 20-30 kt gusts for Cape and Island terminals.

Sunday...High confidence.

MVFR and local IFR conditions improve to VFR by afternoon from SW to NE.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in exact timing and exact details.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing and exact details.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Veterans Day: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence on trends, lower confidence on exact timing and details.

Low pressure and a cold front finally move east across the waters tonight into Sunday. Moderate to heavy rainfall possible this morning with restricted visibility less than 1 NM at times.
Rough seas subside early this morning. Gusty W to NW winds develop tonight into Sunday, which will lead to another round of rough seas, mainly across the outer coastal waters. While there will likely be several hours of a lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions, may just extend it across the outer RI coastal waters for messaging. Rough seas and gusty winds should return by this evening there. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions develop tonight and continue through at least Sunday.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday through Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Veterans Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ017>023.
RI...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ232-233-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ234.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ256.