Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

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Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:38PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 11:50 AM EDT (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 952 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 952 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will push north across the waters by mid day. This will bring patchy fog as well as showers and scattered Thunderstorms through Thursday. A cold front then sweeps across the waters sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning. Dry weather and good vsby follows for Friday into the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211423
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1023 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will push across the region today, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms along with increasing heat
and humidity. A cold front crosses the region on Thursday with
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which
will linger into early Friday across southern areas as the front
slowly pushes offshore. High pressure builds across the
northeast, with steady onshore winds bringing cool temperatures
into early next week. There may also be a chance for low clouds
along with spotty light rain or showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1015 am update...

elevated convection assocd with the warm front is lifting north
into nh. A second area of showers t-storms moving ene from li
and areas along the south coast and CAPE islands will get a few
showers and a brief t-storm late morning into early afternoon
as this activity moves along the coast. Otherwise, our attention
will be focused on upstream convection developing across ny and
moving into sne this afternoon.

Visible satellite loop indicating lots of breaks developing
upstream so expect partial sunshine developing. Warm front
across northern ma will lift into nh with warm sector airmass
across sne. Dewpoints already into the mid 70s along the south
coast and this high dewpoint air will spread northward. This
combined with temps reaching the mid 80s will result in capes
1500-2500 j kg which should compensate for marginal mid level
lapse rates. Expect increasing coverage of showers t-storms
moving into western new eng after 18z as mid level shortwave
moves into new eng.

Deep layer shear 30-35 kt sufficient for storms to organize into
multi-cellular line segments per the hi-res cams, with
scattered strong to severe storms expected. Damaging wind and
large hail are the primary threat. Increasing 850 mb winds to
30-35 kt this afternoon will lead to low level helicity
increasing to 100-150 m2 s2. So a few supercells can't be ruled
out and will have to watch for potential rotating storms which
could produce an isolated tornado. While all sne is at risk for
severe storms, the greatest risk will be across northern ct into
interior ma where best updraft helicity is focused. Timing of
strongest storms will be 3-9 pm.

In addition, pwats pushing 2 inches this afternoon so risk of
heavy rainfall may result in areas of urban and poor drainage
flooding, especially in areas of thunderstorm training.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The shortwave and surface trough eventually move off to the east
tonight, but timing should allow for additional evening
convection with strong winds downpours. But this should diminish
by midnight. Models show no significant chance in airmass, and
dew points will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, so expect a
humid night with areas of fog and lows in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Closed low over james bay sweeps south and pushes a cold front
south into new england. After the morning fog burns off, daytime
heating will work on 16-18c 850 temps to warm the surface to
the mid 80s to around 90. Low level humidity remains in place.

Pw values diminish in the morning, but then climb back to near 2
inches in the afternoon. Instability parameters will not be as
beefy as today, but will show 500-1000 j kg in the interior and
1000-1500 j kg in ri SE mass. So expect showers and scattered
tstms especially in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger Thursday
night as the cold front slowly crosses
* showers linger on Friday with cooler temperatures
* expect mild temperatures and dry conditions Saturday
* cooler than normal temperatures expected Sunday through
Tuesday along with spotty light rain or showers at times
details...

Thursday night...

as the cold front crosses the region, will still see areas of
showers and a few lingering thunderstorms, mainly near and south
of the mass pike. Will see instability decrease as the front
pushes slowly through, but may still see some locally heavy
downpours as another deep moisture layer moving across. Pwat
plume increases to around 2 inches across N ct ri to E mass as
an associated short wave slowly crosses near the slowly moving
front. Could see some locally heavy downpours once again with
this feature.

Friday...

as the front becomes nearly parallel with the mid level steering
flow, could see leftover showers linger along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands through around midday before finally pushing
offshore. Expect the back edge of the cloud deck to slowly shift
southward, pushing offshore late in the day. Light w-nw winds
take over, allowing drier air to move in. Expect temperatures to
top off in the 70s, with a few spots touching 80, along with
decreasing humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...

quite a bit of model solution spread amongst the members this
morning, with lends to lower confidence on the forecast during
this timeframe.

Rather confident with the slow but steady movement of the high
pressure across northern new england, setting up across maine
into eastern quebec and new brunswick late this weekend. This
will set up a NE and eventually easterly wind flow by the start
of the work week. Could see some gusts up to 20-25 mph across
cape cod and the islands, possibly into S coastal areas on
Sunday. The big question will be whether patchy light rain
and or showers could develop from time to time from Sunday to
Tuesday. Where these showers and or rain set up is in question,
but have kept slight chance pops going for now. At this point,
looks like there might be a somewhat better chance for more
organized showers Monday into Tuesday, but not a lot of
confidence.

With the steady onshore flow, expect temps to run around 5
degrees or so below seasonal normals, mainly from Sunday to
Tuesday. Highs on Sunday and Monday may not break 70 at some
locations along E coastal mass.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

areas of ifr along the south coast will improve to MVFR,
otherwise, mainlyVFR CIGS but scattered showers t-storms will
be accompanied by brief MVFR ifr and heavy downpours gusty
winds this afternoon. The best chance for showers tstms will
be in N ct and western central mass this afternoon.

Tonight...

MVFRVFR with scattered showers tstms especially in the
evening. SW winds gusting to 20 kt, especially over CAPE cod
and islands.

Thursday...

vfr MVFR in the morning...VFR in the afternoon with brief MVFR
in showers tstms possible.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. A few showers storms possible late
this morning, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon with
areas of MVFR-ifr conditions possible.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. Should see mainlyVFR conditions
through midday. Best chance for showers storms will be from 18z
through 00z with areas of MVFR-ifr conditions.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today... Warm humid air moves back over the waters. South-
southwest winds, with some gusts to 20 kt. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms, with some strong wind gusts and
downpours. Vsby 1-3 nm in downpours and patchy fog.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms diminish after 10 pm. Vsby
1-3 nm in patchy fog. Persistent south to southwest winds will
build waves to 5-6 feet, so we have issued a small craft
advisory for some of the southern waters.

Thursday... Winds continue from the southwest much of the day,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will remain less than
25 kt while seas will be around 5 feet on parts of the southern
waters.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Thursday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Thursday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Kjc
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb kjc evt
marine... Wtb evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi51 min S 9.9 G 11 73°F 1014.4 hPa (-0.7)67°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi66 min SW 2.9 77°F 1015 hPa69°F
CMLN3 20 mi167 min ESE 6
44073 23 mi107 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi107 min S 3.9 G 3.9 70°F 67°F2 ft1015.3 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi51 min 79°F 1014.8 hPa (-1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi61 min 71°F 70°F1 ft1014 hPa (-1.0)
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi107 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 69°F 69°F2 ft1015.1 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi43 min 66°F2 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi51 min S 6 G 8 71°F 65°F1015.1 hPa (-0.4)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi51 min SE 2.9 76°F 67°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi1.9 hrsSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds77°F68°F74%1015.8 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi2 hrsW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F69°F69%1014.7 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi1.9 hrsW 410.00 miOvercast77°F66°F71%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWM

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5NE64SW94SE54CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmSW3S3SW3CalmSW3SW5SW6S5SW3--SW4
1 day agoW8SW10SW10SW9W8SW12SW11SW6SW6SW5SW6W5W3W3W4W5W3CalmS3W4NW5NW4E44
2 days ago3SW5SW7CalmSE9SE64Calm3S4CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSW6S4SW7SW7SW6S116SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts (2)
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Newburyport
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Wed -- 03:50 AM EDT     7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.245.97.37.67.26.24.83.21.80.90.91.83.45.477.77.56.85.53.92.41.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
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Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:06 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.30 knots Min Flood
Wed -- 02:53 PM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.21.20.7-0.3-1-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.50.10.91.31.31.310.1-0.8-1.3-1.3-1-0.7-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.