Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:11PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 9:59 PM EST (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:21PMMoonset 6:08AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 717 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Patchy fog this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strong cold front approaches from the west and crosses the waters this evening. High pres will build into the region from the west later Wed into Thu. The high will move off the coast on Fri as low pres approaches from the southwest Fri night into Sat. High pressure builds over the waters by Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 110019 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 719 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front crosses the region this evening, followed by colder temperatures with showers changing to a period of accumulating snow later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where a significant impact may occur during the morning commute. Large high pressure will bring cold and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Developing low pressure across the southeast U.S. will shift up the coast with the potential for periods of heavy rain Friday night into Saturday, possibly beginning as a period of light snow across interior Massachusetts. Drier and cooler weather returns Sunday into Monday. Another storm may impact the region next Tuesday with snow or rain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/. 7 PM Update:

Cold front is just clearing central MA into northern Windham County in CT, with flow shifting to northwest and temperatures beginning their steady fall. At the moment, only PSF is reporting snow, though changeover timing in western MA still looks on track. Rain should have already changed to wet snow across the Berkshires, and by midnight expand into western/northern Worcester County into parts of Hartford County. Cold front will continue to progress eastward across RI into eastern MA over the next 1-2 hrs, with a wind shift to WNW and temperatures beginning to fall here, though will still remain well above freezing through midnight.

Rain showers ahead of the cold front will continue to move across the region into early evening. A temporary lull in the shower activity is expected as the front sweeps across SNE this evening, but additional precip develops on the cool side of the front later this evening. As colder air moves in showers will change to snow through midnight in the interior, especially higher elevations but rain in the coastal plain through midnight.

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. 7 PM Tuesday Update:

Incoming 18z guidance (NAM/GFS) and the RAP have come in a bit wetter QPF-wise and shifted ever-so-slightly NW than earlier iterations, especially in that 06-12z timeframe on I-95 SW of Boston on to Providence into south-central RI, on into the Cape. Some of which is almost double from its prior run. A good fraction of this ends up being rain as this is the window in which rain changes over, but I did opt to raise liquid- equivalent QPF by about a tenth of an inch or so across SE Mass/RI and a few hundreths higher N/W of I-95. That brings about an increase in snow accumulations by an inch to inch and half into SE Mass and on through RI, and less than a half-inch increase further NW of I-95/Mass Pike. These changes didn't necessitate any changes to headlines.

GFS continues to advertise an axis of mid-level frontogenetic forcing that shifts SE into the early Wed AM period. If that transpires, that FGen could organize some narrow snowbands into the I-95 corridor S of Boston, with moderate/heavy snow in them at times.

Will defer any further adjustments until the 00z guidance comes in.

Prior discussion follows .

* Accumulating snow expected late tonight into Wed AM, with highest amounts south of the Pike

* Significant impact to Wed AM Rush hour possible, especially across parts of NE CT, Rhode Island and Southeast MA

Classic anafrontal wave develops later tonight as robust mid level shortwave digs into the Great Lakes with SW flow aloft across SNE. This will allow deeper moisture axis to set up across the region with impressive jet dynamics as right entrance region of 170-180kt upper jet moves across the region. Initially, around and just after midnight, ptype will be rain in the coastal plain with snow further in the interior. However, rain will flip to snow from I-95 corridor to the south coast from 06-09z and 09-12z for the Cape/Islands where a period of sleet is possible during the transition.

Good synoptic scale forcing with some enhanced mesoscale forcing as band of mid level frontogenesis develops. Pinpointing the location of this banding potential is a challenge but latest guidance suggests it will be mostly south of the Mass Pike. Also, low level NW flow will attempt to bring in some low level dry air, especially to the north of where any mesoscale snow band sets up which may result in a sharp cutoff to the north. But there is also some concern that the drier air will limit duration of heavier snow. So the question is can robust synoptic and mesoscale forcing make up for possible decreasing moisture. We think there will be a brief window for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow late tonight to about mid morning, especially across RI and SE MA to Cape Cod. Timing is not great and this would have a significant impact on the morning commute.

Snowfall accum forecast is quite challenging for several reasons. First, initial QPF as the rain changes to snow may be wasted on melting, the exact location of a mesoscale snow band is uncertain, and low level drier air may impact snowfall intensity. The previous forecast accums still look reasonable and will not make significant changes. Looking at 2 to 4 inches from near the Mass Pike to the south coast, and 1 to 2 inches to the north. But this will depend on where any banding sets up and this could shift north or south of current forecast. The worst case scenario would be a 4-6 inch snowfall which is a low probability occurrence. No changes to winter weather advisories. While some areas in the advisory may not reach criteria, we felt the impact of snow during the morning commute warrants the advisory. Snow will be exiting the region from west to east during the morning followed by increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights . * Dry conditions and colder than normal temperatures on Wednesday night and Thursday

* Temperatures moderate on Friday as next weather system brings the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding late Friday into Saturday. Flooding risks may be exacerbated by snowmelt.

* Leftover rain/snow showers linger into early Sunday. Drying out and seasonably cold on Monday before next system arrives on Tuesday. Details .

Wednesday night and Thursday .

As the arctic short wave departs, a large 1040mb high pressure will shift east across the Ohio valley into our region. With strong cold air advection and a fresh snowpack, overnight temperatures on Wednesday will fall into the teens in interior MA and CT and low 20s elsewhere away from the coast. The pressure gradient would keep northwest winds blowing at 10 to 15 kts, which would mean wind chills in the single digits in the interior and teens elsewhere.

On Thursday, despite mostly sunny skies, most locations will see sub- freezing highs due to continued cold air advection. The albedo effect from the snowpack and low sun angle will also help offset radiational heating. Factoring in the northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts, it will feel like in the 20s area wide during the day on Thursday.

By Thursday evening, the center of the high pressure moves offshore into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds become light and variable before switching to the south and southeast after midnight. Clouds will start to increase ahead of the next system.

Friday through Saturday night .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential***

A potent low pressure system will move north on Friday. A southeasterly flow should see high temperatures moderate to the mid 30s in the interior and mid 40s near the coast. Shower chances increase during the day ahead of the main system. Enough shallow cold air should linger in interior MA and CT for the precipitation to start off as snow or mixed precipitation. Surface maps also have signatures of cold air drainage from the northeast so there may be a few hours of light snow or mixed precipitation. But as warmer air lifts north, any precipitation should change over to plain rain showers by Friday afternoon.

By Friday night, the 500mb long wave trough starts digging out of the midwest into the southeast states. This will set up a strong southwest mid level wind flow allowing the deep layer moisture to work into the northeast late Friday into early Saturday morning, with PWATs up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal and pockets of 3-4 standard deviations along the coast. A model blend shows 2 to 2.5 inches of QPF across the area while WPC is less bullish, with 1 to 1.5 inches of QPF for Western MA and 1.5 to 2 inches of QPF elsewhere. Heavy rainfall rates on Saturday morning and afternoon could lead to localized flooding. High temperatures on Saturday look to be in the mid to upper 40s across Western MA/CT and mid 50s elsewhere.

An issue of concern is the flooding potential. According to co-op observers' reports this morning, we have about a 6-8 inch snow depth with just under 2 inches snow water equivalent in Northwest MA. That gives us about 30% snow density, which indicates a ripe snowpack. So the combination of snowmelt runoff and heavy rain may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Will continue to monitor river levels for any rises.

Sunday through Tuesday .

Low pressure will shift northeast into Maine and the Maritimes by Sunday morning, though light rain may linger especially near and N of the Mass Pike. Another cold front may wrap around the departing low late Sunday or Sunday night. May see the rain mix with or change to snow, but looks like the best chance may occur across the east slopes of the Berkshires and possibly the northern Worcester hills during the afternoon before tapering off.

Another cold front will sweep across the region by Monday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and colder air across the region. Expect highs on Monday to be in the 30s and 40s. Another low pressure system looks to impact the area by early Tuesday. With the cold air in place, it should start off as snow before changing to mixed precipitation or rain away from the interior. But since we are still a week away, confidence is extremely low in any specific solution.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ .

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight and Wednesday . Moderate confidence. Winds shift to the NW tonight behind a strong cold front. Cigs may temporarily lift to VFR in the evening across portions of the interior. Still looking at change from rain to a period of snow 00-06z interior and 06-10z along the coast. MVFR/IFR conditions, with a period of LIFR and brief moderate/heavy snow possible across RI and SE MA late tonight and Wed morning. Conditions quickly improve to VFR with clearing skies from NW to SE late morning into the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain changing to snow around 06z and ending 13-14z. Slushy 1-2 inches possible with an impact to the morning push.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain changing to snow 04-06z ending 12-13z. 1-2 inches possible with an impact to the morning push.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

Tonight . Winds shift to NW tonight with a period of G25 kt, especially over the eastern waters. Hazardous seas persist over outer waters. Vsbys reduced in showers and fog, changing to snow late tonight.

Wednesday . Diminishing NW winds and seas but seas remaining AOA 5 ft over the outer waters. Improving vsbys as rain/snow exit.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ .

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for MAZ012-013-015>022. RI . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday for RIZ001>007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237- 250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Chai NEAR TERM . KJC/Loconto SHORT TERM . KJC/Loconto LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . KJC/Loconto/Chai MARINE . KJC/Loconto/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi75 min W 6 41°F 1012 hPa38°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi60 min WNW 19 G 22 45°F 1011.8 hPa (+4.1)40°F
CMLN3 20 mi176 min WNW 19
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi116 min NNW 23 G 27 49°F 47°F1010.2 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi60 min 47°F 41°F1012.3 hPa (+4.0)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi70 min WNW 16 G 19 49°F 48°F4 ft1012.4 hPa (+3.9)44°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi116 min WNW 18 G 23 47°F 6 ft1011.2 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi52 min 47°F7 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi60 min WNW 4.1 G 8 44°F 45°F1012.3 hPa (+4.7)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi60 min W 2.9 43°F 40°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi66 minW 1010.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1013.7 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi67 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast45°F39°F80%1013 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi64 minWNW 58.00 miLight Rain42°F38°F88%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWM

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts (2)
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Newburyport
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:20 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM EST     8.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:27 PM EST     7.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.84.22.61.40.812.34.36.47.98.37.96.85.13.21.50.40.10.72.44.56.47.47.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:08 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:10 PM EST     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:44 PM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.2-1-0.9-0.40.51.11.31.61.50.6-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.8-00.81.21.51.61-0

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.