St. Clair, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Clair, MI

April 16, 2024 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM
Moonrise 12:01 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 222 Am Est Wed Feb 28 2024

.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border - . Port sanilac to port huron mi - . St. Clair river - .
at 222 am est, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near lakeport to 11 nm northwest of st. Clair, moving east at 35 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Lakeport around 230 am est. Port huron around 235 am est.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these strong Thunderstorms reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these strong Thunderstorms arrives.
&&
lat - .lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4293 8245 4290 8247 4289 8251 4301 8247 4322 8256 4325 8257 4329 8228

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160959 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 559 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances will increase this evening into tonight as a warm front encroaches on the area.

- Showers and thundestorms are expected Wednesday as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes.

- There is a slight chance of severe weather generally south of the I-69 corridor mainly on Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION

High pressure maintains clear skies and sustained east flow around 10 knots through the day with just inconsequential pockets of cirrus at times. By tonight, increasing influence of the next low pressure system begins a steady lowering of cloud bases with showers eventually moving in around 07z as the first wave of theta-e advection and elevated warm frontal forcing work into the airspace.
Thermodynamics generally unimpressive for thunder chances Wednesday morning so just went with -SHRA for now. Winds toward the end of the TAF period remain around 10-12 knots with a general trend toward the southeast as the surface warm front lifts north.

For DTW...showers will reach DTW around 07z Wednesday morning. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out entirely, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. Surface warm frontal arrives around 14z to DTW, surging additional moisture into the sub-5kft layer to support MVFR coverage. Thunderstorm potential will increase after noon (16z) as some degree of destabilization occurs, although broad cloud cover/lingering showers may limit how much instability develops.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet Wednesday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms after 07z Wednesday morning. Medium after 16z.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

DISCUSSION...

A surface ridge extending south from a large high center near Hudson Bay will retreat eastward today as a strong low pressure over the central plains ejects into the midwest. In between these systems, east to northeast flow will gradually increase throughout the day.
This will impact temperatures immediately downwind of the Great Lakes with highs hold in the 50s to near 60 over the Thumb as well as locations east of Saginaw Bay and western Lake Erie. The rest of the area will climb into the lower/mid 60s as increasing cloud cover leads to slightly cooler readings overall than those on Monday. The area should remain dry throughout the day with the first sporadic light showers associated with the outer reaches of aforementioned low pressure to the west not making inroads into the area until this evening.

Shower chances will increase Tuesday night as a lead vorticity spoke pivots northeast across the area in advance of the approaching low pressure with a distinct surge of higher theta-e air working into the area during this time frame. Low level instability will still be confined well south of the area along and south of an encroaching warm front so this activity should be largely thunderless with little more than a rumble or two possible within this elevated activity. Shower/thunderstorm chances continue into early Wednesday as the warm front lifts north through the area as low pressure tracks into Wisconsin.

The trickiest portion of the forecast will come later Wednesday as this lead activity lifts north of the area and some degree of a warm sector shifts north and northeast into parts of the region as the surface low continues east through northern Lake Michigan into far northern lower MI and the eastern UP. A pocket of modest instability (MUCAPE 1250-1750 J/kg in some spots) looks to develop within this relatively warm and moist area south of the warm front to the west and southwest of the forecast area with this area then translates east and northeast into the region during the afternoon/early evening.

A cold front pivoting west to east around the low pressure center will encounter this unstable pocket and provide the necessary lift to force a line of vigorous line of convection across southern lower MI with this activity eventually shifting into the forecast area late in the day. Increasing southwest flow into the mid levels (40 to 55 knots from H85 to H5) will provide moderate deep shear and line up pretty well to encourage any line of convection that does develop to bow eastward with time. The main question will be how much instability is able to feed this line of storms east into the region.

SPC has increased risk to a Slight over the southern half of the area which aligns pretty well with timing/location of this warm sector and advancing cold front as compared to yesterday's forecast.
Favor a wind threat locally in the DTX area as potential convective line should be rather mature by the time is gets this far east. In addition, there will be some large hail potential and possible a rouge tornado embedded within the line given the relatively strong (but veered) low/mid level flow.

Showers will end Wednesday night as the low lifts into the northern Great Lakes and the cold front pushes east with time. Mild weather will persist into Thursday within largely westerly flow with lower to mid 60s common. A large northern stream upper low pressure system will be translating across southern Canada during this time frame. A cold front will shift southeast through the area Thursday night as this low (actually phasing to a degree with the southern system)
arrives/deepens north of Lake Superior. This will provide another round of showers mainly Thursday evening/night with cooler air then funneling into the area from Friday on into Sunday as a large high pressure system builds into the CONUS from Canada in the wake of this northern stream system. Highs will settle into the 50s for much of the rest of the forecast with lows down into the low 30s in many locations by Sunday and Monday mornings.

MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure extending southeast from Ontario maintains light northeast wind and dry conditions today. Low pressure tracking in from the Midwest causes winds to shift to easterly and strengthen tonight into Wednesday morning. Northern and central Lake Huron will see the strongest winds with gusts to gales increasingly likely into Wednesday and the Gale Watch has been replaced by a Gale Warning late tonight into Wednesday. Further south, wind gusts are marginal so will issue Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters and leave the southern open waters without a headline at this point in time (anticipating gusts more in the 30-32 knot range).

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms accompany the system late tonight through Wednesday night, then taper off Thursday as the low moves out. Weaker westerly winds follow for Thursday. A weak cold front then moves through the region Friday with continued westerly winds in its wake expected to remain light to moderate through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY...

A warm front will lift into the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of a strong low pressure over the midwest.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this front with the greatest coverage occurring overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will impact parts of the area Wednesday afternoon into early evening as this low tracks through far northern lower Michigan and forces a cold front through the area. Total rainfall is forecast to reach one inch in some locations. While significant flooding is not expected at this time, expect minor flooding in prone urban and poor drainage areas and possibly notable rises in area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 2 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ361-362.

Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ363.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ421-422-441.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi54 min 42°F 30.14
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi54 min N 12G13 42°F 30.1436°F
PBWM4 13 mi54 min 42°F 30.14
AGCM4 14 mi54 min 43°F 45°F30.13
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi54 min NNE 13G17 48°F 30.17


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI 7 sm18 minNNE 0410 smClear41°F34°F75%30.18
CYZR SARNIA CHRIS HADFIELD,CN 15 sm53 minN 069 smOvercast39°F36°F87%30.17
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI 24 sm57 minN 0410 smPartly Cloudy43°F32°F65%30.14
Link to 5 minute data for KPHN


Wind History from PHN
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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