Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wind Lake, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 319 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A surface pressure ridge is entrenched across southern Wisconsin early this afternoon, supporting continued mostly sunny skies. The sunny skies, combined with southeast to southerly winds, is resulting in another day of efficient warming across southern Wisconsin. Said warming will support widespread high temps in the 80s away from Lake Michigan this afternoon, with cooler readings primarily in the 60s and 70s closer to the water. Evident in GOES water vapor imagery, a cutoff upper low continues to rotate over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The feature is accompanied by an occluded low pressure center at the surface, with 1 PM analyses placing it in the Arkansas Ozarks. The upper low-surface low pair will gradually migrate northeast into the Ohio River Valley during the short term period. The features will draw close enough to result in increasing clouds late this afternoon and evening, with scattered shower and thunderstorm development occurring to our south & east in Illinois/Indiana. Following an embedded shortwave, the precip will attempt to advance into southeast Wisconsin during the predawn hours Tuesday. The aforementioned shortwave will linger over the region during the day on Tuesday, working with daytime heating to encourage additional shower and thunderstorm development. Significant impacts are not anticipated. Steadily increasing low level moisture could lead to patchy fog development both tonight and Tuesday night, particularly near Lake Michigan in far southeastern and east-central Wisconsin.

Tonight: Widely scattered rain showers will attempt to work into southeastern Wisconsin during the predawn hours. Overnight timing/stable boundary layer conditions will pose challenges for this activity, though 12Z CAM guidance suggests that precip will manage to sneak into southeastern Wisconsin during the predawn hours. Have thus continued slight chance to chance (~15-30%) precip probs in the afternoon update. Can't entirely rule out an isolated clap of thunder, though instability is very weak to negligible in forecast soundings (particularly moving northwest). With increasing low level moisture & southeasterly flow off Lake Michigan, can't rule out some areas of patchy fog prior to daybreak, particularly near the lakeshore. Have added mentions in the afternoon update.
Don't currently expect dense fog, but will be watching trends through the evening hours.

Tuesday: With an upper shortwave lingering over southern Wisconsin, redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is forecast. Anticipate the best potential (~30-50% precip probabilities) over south-central Wisconsin & the Wisconsin Valley, where the best ascent affiliated with the wave will be positioned. Significant hazards are not expected in any storms given very weak wind shear (~5-10 kts in the 0-6 km layer), though any storms could be capable of producing brief heavy downpours given 1"+ precipitable waters building into southern Wisconsin. Be sure to move indoors if a thunderstorm approaches your area Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and storms will taper with the loss of daytime heating. Additional patchy fog is possible during the predawn hours, particularly in east-central and southeastern Wisconsin.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 319 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Synopsis: Upper low pressure will linger across the Lower Michigan/Lake Erie vicinity during the day on Wednesday, remaining close enough to southern Wisconsin to support additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. A much broader and organized area of upper low pressure will migrate into the Northern Plains Wednesday evening into Thursday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis in the Dakotas. The upper low will drift from the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes Thursday through Friday, driving a pair of short wave troughs across southern Wisconsin in the process. The first shortwave is progged to cross the region Thursday afternoon and evening, acquiring greater amounts of negative tilt as it does so. This evolution will allow for a pronounced surface cold front to cross the area Thursday afternoon/evening. Lift from the surface front and trough will combine with a moist & unseasonably warm air mass to support thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe. A second shortwave will cross the region on Friday, which could result in additional showers and thunderstorms if enough lingering low level moisture is in place. Winds will turn northwest late Friday night, resulting in cooler conditions next weekend. Another disturbance will approach the western Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin.

Wednesday: Additional pop-up showers and storms are forecast during the afternoon. Best chances (~20-35%) will be away from Lake Michigan, where southeast flow will lead to more stable conditions.
Similar to Tuesday, 1"+ precipitable water values (which fall anywhere between 0.5-1 standard deviations above mid-May climo) will support brief heavy downpours in locations seeing storms. Don't anticipate widespread or significant strong/severe impacts, although wind shear will be modestly higher relative to Tuesday (~10-20 kts in the 0-6 km layer). Thus can't entirely rule a slightly more organized character to storms Wednesday afternoon, which combined with dry air above 850 mb could result in a few stronger wind gusts.
Will continue to monitor trends in the coming forecasts.

Thursday: A more substantial thunderstorm threat will exist during the afternoon and evening hours as the first of two shortwaves & a strong cold front cross southern Wisconsin. As discussed in previous updates, the overall set-up points to an atmosphere that will be conducive for organized, potentially strong/severe thunderstorms during this timeframe (particularly 2-10 PM). A moist & unseasonably warm air mass will be translate to plenty of instability during the afternoon hours, with dynamic wind fields providing more than sufficient wind shear for organized storms capable of all severe hazards. All this said, uncertainties & failure modes do remain.
While most guidance is in agreement on a late afternoon/early evening frontal passage (overall more favorable for storms), a few solutions continue to push the front east of the area by mid-late afternoon (which would decrease overall severe storm potential). If more favorable frontal timing for storms is realized, there will nevertheless be prevailing southeasterly flow off of Lake Michigan, which would result in cooler/more stable boundary layer conditions east of I-41. Finally, a sampling of forecast soundings depict some degree of capping in the 850-700 mb layer through early afternoon.
While abundant synoptic lift would likely overcome the capping, the process wouldn't be immediate, with storm development being limited until the cap could be fully eliminated. Will thus be monitoring forecast trends very closely through Thursday given the multiple factors/influences in play. Be sure to monitor the forecast closely between now and Thursday.

Friday: If enough moisture lingers behind Thursday's storms, additional more scattered thunderstorms would be possible ahead of a second shortwave passage during the afternoon/evening. Will monitor trends and provide additional details as model trends converge in the coming forecasts.

Sunday Night Through Monday: The next disturbance will approach the western Great Lakes from the Plains, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. It remains too early to offer any specifics, given high amounts of spread in both timing & system character in the global guidance. Will continue to monitor trends through the second half of this week.

Quigley

AVIATION
Issued 319 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions continue early this afternoon at all terminals with a surface pressure ridge lingering over Lake Michigan. Upper low pressure will slowly push northeast toward the Ohio River Valley this evening, resulting in increasing mid-upper level clouds. Clouds will continue to thicken this evening/tonight as low level moisture deepens ahead of the approaching low. Said deepening moisture will allow for low clouds to develop near/after midnight, with categorical reductions overspreading all southern Wisconsin terminals by predawn Tuesday. Anticipate prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions at KMSN and KJVL, with very high confidence in prevailing IFR closer to Lake Michigan. Low CIGs will be accompanied by VIS reductions at the lakeside terminals. The combination reduced CIGs and VIS readings could lead to a period of prevailing LIFR early Tuesday morning at the Lake Michigan terminals. This potential has been accounted for in the 18Z update. Slight chances for -SHRA are forecast early Tuesday morning across southern parts of the area.
Have added PROB30 -SHRA groups at KUES, KJVL, and KMSN in the 18Z update given morning model solutions, in addition to maintaining PROB30 groups at KENW and KMKE. Anticipate some improvement in flight categories Tuesday afternoon, particularly at KMSN and KJVL.
Can't rule out continued MVFR categories into Tuesday evening closer to Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered -SHRA & -TSRA are possible once again Tuesday afternoon, particularly away from Lake Michigan.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 319 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

1027 mb high pressure is centered off the Northeast coast this afternoon, continuing to influence winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. Generally east-northeast winds are ongoing across the southern half of the lake, with east-southeast winds further north.
Anticipate similar north-south behavior to winds through Tuesday as an area of 1012 mb low pressure migrates into the western Ohio River Valley and a second area of 990 mb low pressure lingers over the northern Great Plains. Areas of fog are forecast tonight and Tuesday night, with some areas of dense fog possible. Trends will be monitored this evening and in the coming forecasts for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Periods of isolated showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, particularly across the southern open waters.

A larger area of 994 mb low pressure will advance into the northern Great Plains Wednesday, resulting in east-southeast winds across all of Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday afternoon & early evening across the entirety of the open waters. The aforementioned surface low will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, dragging a cold front across Lake Michigan during the afternoon and evening hours.
Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with a few strong to severe storms possible. A west-southwest wind shift is expected behind the front on Friday. Said winds will be gusty, though gales are not anticipated at this time. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming forecasts. Winds will be accompanied by additional areas of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Friday afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in nearshore zones during the afternoon & early evening periods early this week. Best chances for showers/storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday. With low pressure moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley, southeasterly winds will increase on Thursday. Gusts and wave heights could approach Small Craft Advisory levels, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will cross the region Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing more widespread chances for showers and storms. A few storms could be strong to severe. Winds will shift out of the southwest behind the departed surface front on Friday, resulting in even stronger wind gusts during the afternoon hours. Could thus see additional Small Craft Advisory conditions in nearshore zones on Friday afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored over the coming forecasts.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.