Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mariaville Lake, NY
December 4, 2023 7:39 AM EST (12:39 UTC)
Sunrise 7:08AM Sunset 4:23PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 1:30PM
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 041200 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 700 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Expect lingering lake effect and orographically enhanced rain and snow showers today mainly in the higher terrain areas along with breezy, cloudy yet seasonable conditions. A cold front tonight will usher in colder air and maintain lake effect snow showers again, mainly for the higher terrain. High pressure builds across the Northeast for Tuesday into Wednesday giving us continued cooler and breezy conditions with just some isolated snow showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:40am...Forecast remains on track with a single lake effect band extending far eastward off Lake Erie into the Catskills including Schoharie County, the Helderbergs, parts of the Capital District and impressively even into the Berkshires.
Temperatures remain mild in the mid to upper 30s so these showers are falling as plain rain. We already had slight chance POPs in this corridor but we adjusted POPs upward to chance for the western portion of this corridor through 15 UTC based on the latest RGEM which has done well highlighting this lake effect band. Otherwise, lake effect rain/snow showers continue reaching into the western Adirondacks this morning where temperatures are a bit cooler in the low to mid 30s but still too marginal temperatures to support much snow accumulation.
NYS mesonet stations have not shown much accumulations in the southern/western Adirondacks. Rest of the forecast on track.
Previous discussion...After a very wet Sunday, our double barrel low has exited to our north with the primary low now tracking into the North Country. Latest NYS mesonet observations and MRMS radar estimates show over the past 24 hours a soaking precipitation event occurred across eastern NY and western New England with precip amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches.
Wet snow even fell in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with amounts ranging 1 to 3 inches.
Behind the open potent shortwave, strong west flow continues through the column and runs down the long fetch of the lake.
While the incoming air mass is actually quite seasonable with 850hPa only -4C to -5C, latest radar imagery shows a primary lake effect band extending off Lake Erie with fragments reaching into the northern Catskills including Schoharie County. The RGEM and GFS has handled this response well and we therefore adjusted POPs to more closely match these trends and collaborated with BGM to ensure consistency with our upstream neighbor.
Guidance indicates the lake effect extension off Lake Erie should continue to reach Schoharie through Monday morning and may even extend as far east as the Helderbergs and even parts of the Capital District. The RGEM even suggests the extension reaches into Berkshire County but with limited cold air advection, no multi-lake connection and a mixing depth only up to 2km, we have lesser confidence for lake effect showers will reach into western New England. Therefore, have chance POPS reserved for Schoharie County into the Helderbergs with slight chance eastward. Regardless, temperatures are still mild enough that p-type will be rain outside of the higher terrain in the northern Catskills where a rain/snow mix can occur. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates in the boundary layer so would not be surprised if some graupel falls in the higher terrain.
Further north, lake effect off Lake Ontario will impact the western Adirondacks through this morning as well in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in the higher terrain. Marginal temperatures should limit any wet snow accumulations under 1 inch.
Otherwise, winds turn breezy today with sustained winds 5-15kts and gusts up to 25-30kts (strongest from the Mohawk Valley through the Berkshires). Heading into the afternoon, the lake effect bands break-up into fragments as the true cold front and a weaker shortwave tracks eastward and boundary layer flow veers from the west to northwesterly. Guidance shows the push of true cold air behind the front arriving after 18 UTC through 00 UTC from northwest to southeast. This will enhance the lake effect response for the western and southern Adirondacks and the upslope/orographic lift along the spine of the Greens. The cold air advection will also create more favorable conditions for wet snow to accumulate. However, still only expecting up to 1 inch of snow. The northwesterly wind shift should redirect lake effect bands from the northern Catskills southward and should transition to be more wet snow in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills as the boundary layer cools and we approach sunset. Some showers may even reach the Hudson Valley. However, the less favorable fetch off the lake should weaken the bands and thus keep any accumulations to a minimum.
High temperatures today will be rather seasonable despite the breezy conditions. Highs likely reach the mid to even upper 40s in the valley thanks to deep boundary layer mixing with mid to upper 30s in the hill towns and higher terrain. However, the breezy winds and cloudy skies will make it feel cooler.
For tonight, cold air advection behind the front will maintain lake effect snow showers for the northern/eastern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley, western/southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but again the northwesterly flow down the short fetch of Lake Ontario will weaken the lake enhancement and therefore keep any snow accumulations low with most only ranging from a coating to 1 inch. The spine of the southern Greens should see the highest amounts with 1 - 1.5 inches possible due to orographic enhancements. Otherwise, cloud coverage and breezy winds keep temperatures elevated with lows only in the mid to upper 20s with low 30s in the valley.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Strong subsidence and high pressure from the Ohio Valley builds into the Northeast for Tuesday which will shut-off the lake effect response. While some skies could break for some sun in the morning, once we reach peak heating, skies likely become cloudy again as moisture underneath the subsidence inversion remains in place. Expect a cooler day thanks to northwest flow.
Highs only likely reach the mid to upper 30s for most with some low 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley and upper 20s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern/western Adirondacks.
A cooler night expected for Tuesday night despite mostly cloudy as high pressure builds into southern Canada, promoting a northerly wind shift. Thus, temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s for much of the area with low 20s in the higher terrain.
Northerly flow continues for Wednesday which will maintain the cooler temperatures with highs only rising into the low to mid 30s. Mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain. Luckily, skies should finally give way to increased afternoon sun as the northerly flow advects in a drier air mass as we lose the moisture fetch off the lakes. It will be rather breezy, however, as a disturbances passes off shore and the sfc pressure gradient tightens. This will make it feel even cooler. Guidance hints that some isolated snow showers are possible for Wednesday, perhaps enhanced from Lake Champlain, but we did not have enough confidence to include in the latest forecast and maintained dry conditions.
Wednesday night will turn cold thanks to clearer skies and radiational cooling. Lows expected to drop into the teens and low 20s throughout eastern NY and western New England.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridging just begins to build into our region from the west on Thursday. Weak warm advection will begin through the day Thursday as low level ridging builds east of our region. There maybe a few lake effect snow showers into the southern Adirondacks. Considerable mid and high clouds with temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 and upper 20s to around 30 higher terrain.
Periods of mid and high clouds Friday into Saturday as deeper warm advection continues and the upper level ridge axis tracks through our region, shifting upper level winds to the SW, allowing for more upper level moisture to stream in. Highs Friday in the 40s with mid to upper 30s higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lower 40s higher terrain.
Amplifying upper energy approaches our region from the west and southwest Sunday. Stronger warm advection, along with increasing deep moisture, low level jet energy and isentropic lift should spread showers through the region. Highs Sunday around 50 to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s higher terrain.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
One upper disturbance and front has exited. Some isolated to scattered showers off the Great Lakes are in the vicinity of KALB and KPSF, that will continue through about 13Z. Including VCSH at those sites.
Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibilities expected today with ceilings just over 3000 feet, and brief periods of just scattered clouds. Visibilities will also be VFR, even in any light showers.
More isolated to scattered showers could develop this afternoon, and including VCSH at KALB and KPSF this afternoon. By 00Z, all showers should be gone and VFR conditions continue through tonight.
Light south to west winds at less than 10 Kt through mid morning, then west to northwest at around 10 Kt mid morning with some gusts 15 to 20 Kt through this afternoon. Winds diminish to under 10 Kt this evening and continue light through tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 700 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Expect lingering lake effect and orographically enhanced rain and snow showers today mainly in the higher terrain areas along with breezy, cloudy yet seasonable conditions. A cold front tonight will usher in colder air and maintain lake effect snow showers again, mainly for the higher terrain. High pressure builds across the Northeast for Tuesday into Wednesday giving us continued cooler and breezy conditions with just some isolated snow showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:40am...Forecast remains on track with a single lake effect band extending far eastward off Lake Erie into the Catskills including Schoharie County, the Helderbergs, parts of the Capital District and impressively even into the Berkshires.
Temperatures remain mild in the mid to upper 30s so these showers are falling as plain rain. We already had slight chance POPs in this corridor but we adjusted POPs upward to chance for the western portion of this corridor through 15 UTC based on the latest RGEM which has done well highlighting this lake effect band. Otherwise, lake effect rain/snow showers continue reaching into the western Adirondacks this morning where temperatures are a bit cooler in the low to mid 30s but still too marginal temperatures to support much snow accumulation.
NYS mesonet stations have not shown much accumulations in the southern/western Adirondacks. Rest of the forecast on track.
Previous discussion...After a very wet Sunday, our double barrel low has exited to our north with the primary low now tracking into the North Country. Latest NYS mesonet observations and MRMS radar estimates show over the past 24 hours a soaking precipitation event occurred across eastern NY and western New England with precip amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches.
Wet snow even fell in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with amounts ranging 1 to 3 inches.
Behind the open potent shortwave, strong west flow continues through the column and runs down the long fetch of the lake.
While the incoming air mass is actually quite seasonable with 850hPa only -4C to -5C, latest radar imagery shows a primary lake effect band extending off Lake Erie with fragments reaching into the northern Catskills including Schoharie County. The RGEM and GFS has handled this response well and we therefore adjusted POPs to more closely match these trends and collaborated with BGM to ensure consistency with our upstream neighbor.
Guidance indicates the lake effect extension off Lake Erie should continue to reach Schoharie through Monday morning and may even extend as far east as the Helderbergs and even parts of the Capital District. The RGEM even suggests the extension reaches into Berkshire County but with limited cold air advection, no multi-lake connection and a mixing depth only up to 2km, we have lesser confidence for lake effect showers will reach into western New England. Therefore, have chance POPS reserved for Schoharie County into the Helderbergs with slight chance eastward. Regardless, temperatures are still mild enough that p-type will be rain outside of the higher terrain in the northern Catskills where a rain/snow mix can occur. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates in the boundary layer so would not be surprised if some graupel falls in the higher terrain.
Further north, lake effect off Lake Ontario will impact the western Adirondacks through this morning as well in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in the higher terrain. Marginal temperatures should limit any wet snow accumulations under 1 inch.
Otherwise, winds turn breezy today with sustained winds 5-15kts and gusts up to 25-30kts (strongest from the Mohawk Valley through the Berkshires). Heading into the afternoon, the lake effect bands break-up into fragments as the true cold front and a weaker shortwave tracks eastward and boundary layer flow veers from the west to northwesterly. Guidance shows the push of true cold air behind the front arriving after 18 UTC through 00 UTC from northwest to southeast. This will enhance the lake effect response for the western and southern Adirondacks and the upslope/orographic lift along the spine of the Greens. The cold air advection will also create more favorable conditions for wet snow to accumulate. However, still only expecting up to 1 inch of snow. The northwesterly wind shift should redirect lake effect bands from the northern Catskills southward and should transition to be more wet snow in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills as the boundary layer cools and we approach sunset. Some showers may even reach the Hudson Valley. However, the less favorable fetch off the lake should weaken the bands and thus keep any accumulations to a minimum.
High temperatures today will be rather seasonable despite the breezy conditions. Highs likely reach the mid to even upper 40s in the valley thanks to deep boundary layer mixing with mid to upper 30s in the hill towns and higher terrain. However, the breezy winds and cloudy skies will make it feel cooler.
For tonight, cold air advection behind the front will maintain lake effect snow showers for the northern/eastern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley, western/southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but again the northwesterly flow down the short fetch of Lake Ontario will weaken the lake enhancement and therefore keep any snow accumulations low with most only ranging from a coating to 1 inch. The spine of the southern Greens should see the highest amounts with 1 - 1.5 inches possible due to orographic enhancements. Otherwise, cloud coverage and breezy winds keep temperatures elevated with lows only in the mid to upper 20s with low 30s in the valley.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Strong subsidence and high pressure from the Ohio Valley builds into the Northeast for Tuesday which will shut-off the lake effect response. While some skies could break for some sun in the morning, once we reach peak heating, skies likely become cloudy again as moisture underneath the subsidence inversion remains in place. Expect a cooler day thanks to northwest flow.
Highs only likely reach the mid to upper 30s for most with some low 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley and upper 20s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern/western Adirondacks.
A cooler night expected for Tuesday night despite mostly cloudy as high pressure builds into southern Canada, promoting a northerly wind shift. Thus, temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s for much of the area with low 20s in the higher terrain.
Northerly flow continues for Wednesday which will maintain the cooler temperatures with highs only rising into the low to mid 30s. Mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain. Luckily, skies should finally give way to increased afternoon sun as the northerly flow advects in a drier air mass as we lose the moisture fetch off the lakes. It will be rather breezy, however, as a disturbances passes off shore and the sfc pressure gradient tightens. This will make it feel even cooler. Guidance hints that some isolated snow showers are possible for Wednesday, perhaps enhanced from Lake Champlain, but we did not have enough confidence to include in the latest forecast and maintained dry conditions.
Wednesday night will turn cold thanks to clearer skies and radiational cooling. Lows expected to drop into the teens and low 20s throughout eastern NY and western New England.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridging just begins to build into our region from the west on Thursday. Weak warm advection will begin through the day Thursday as low level ridging builds east of our region. There maybe a few lake effect snow showers into the southern Adirondacks. Considerable mid and high clouds with temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 and upper 20s to around 30 higher terrain.
Periods of mid and high clouds Friday into Saturday as deeper warm advection continues and the upper level ridge axis tracks through our region, shifting upper level winds to the SW, allowing for more upper level moisture to stream in. Highs Friday in the 40s with mid to upper 30s higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lower 40s higher terrain.
Amplifying upper energy approaches our region from the west and southwest Sunday. Stronger warm advection, along with increasing deep moisture, low level jet energy and isentropic lift should spread showers through the region. Highs Sunday around 50 to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s higher terrain.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
One upper disturbance and front has exited. Some isolated to scattered showers off the Great Lakes are in the vicinity of KALB and KPSF, that will continue through about 13Z. Including VCSH at those sites.
Otherwise, VFR ceilings and visibilities expected today with ceilings just over 3000 feet, and brief periods of just scattered clouds. Visibilities will also be VFR, even in any light showers.
More isolated to scattered showers could develop this afternoon, and including VCSH at KALB and KPSF this afternoon. By 00Z, all showers should be gone and VFR conditions continue through tonight.
Light south to west winds at less than 10 Kt through mid morning, then west to northwest at around 10 Kt mid morning with some gusts 15 to 20 Kt through this afternoon. Winds diminish to under 10 Kt this evening and continue light through tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KALB ALBANY INTL,NY | 15 sm | 48 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 39°F | 87% | 29.71 |
Wind History from SCH
(wind in knots)Troy
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:30 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 10:07 AM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST 4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:30 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 10:07 AM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST 4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 3.7 |
| 10 am |
| 4 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 04:33 PM EST 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST 4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Mon -- 04:33 PM EST 0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST 4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 3.2 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 4 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.3 |
Albany, NY,
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