Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mariaville Lake, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Smoke and haze from wildfires in Canada continues to move across eastern New York and western New England tonight and tomorrow.

2) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by Saturday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
From wildfires in Ontario Canada, smoke and hazy conditions continue as the upper level flow continues to support transporting the smoke to eastern New York and western New England. Latest high resolution forecast model guidance supports near surface smoke and hazy conditions to continue tonight into tomorrow evening. The winds are forecasted to shift to transport the smoke and haze further southward tomorrow evening. Based on surface observations, visibilities have been as low as two miles in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Elsewhere, visibilities have ranged between 3 and 6 miles. Based on latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations to our west, visibilities will continue to fluctuate tonight due to how thick the smoke and haze is to between 2 and 6 miles. While conditions will continue to be hazy tomorrow, improvement is forecasted to begin from north to south tomorrow evening near sunset into the early overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Afternoon Update: Latest ensemble forecast model guidances are consistent with arrival time being in the late morning hours to early afternoon for widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on forecast trends, the environment and ingredients needed for a few strong storms could develop.
Continue to monitor the forecast with latest forecast guidance.

Previous Discussion: Other than some widely scattered showers and non-severe T-storms north of the Capital District on Thu associated with a weakening front, it will be dry across much of the area. Dry conditions will persist into Fri as high pressure builds in. Better likelihood for showers/T-storms looks to occur Sat into Sat night, as a low pressure system and potent short wave aloft move across the area. This will be first chance for widespread precip since last week. The system looks to exit to our east on Sun, although a few additional showers/T-storms will be possible as an upper trough lingers.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z/Friday, mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight, although smoke/haze layer could produce MVFR Vsbys at times, especially near KPOU. On Thursday, thicker surface-based smoke from upstream Canadian wildfires will reduce Vsbys into the MVFR to occasional IFR range, with lowest Vsbys expected in the afternoon at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. Isolated showers will also be possible later in the afternoon at KGFL, KALB and KPSF ahead of an approaching secondary cold front, which could also reduce Vsbys to low MVFR or IFR when combined with the existing smoke/haze.

West to northwest winds 8-12 KT will become light/variable overnight, then increase to 8-12 KT by late Thursday morning into the afternoon, with some gusts possibly reaching 20-25 KT during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Definite K.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ032- 033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for MAZ001- 025.
VT...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.