Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeville, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Confidence continues to increase for a brief period of potentially dangerous heat early next week, especially Tuesday.

A high pressure ridge currently spanning across the four corners region will expand across much of the central CONUS through this weekend and into early next week. The 500mb high looks to reach near 600dam over the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes region Monday before expanding eastward.

While temperatures will climb above average on Monday, southerly moisture advection will just be getting established as the weekend's high pressure begins to shift off the Atlantic Coast, helping to keep heat index values not too far off from observed temperatures. However, humidity will be on the rise headed into Tuesday along with 850mb temperatures climbing above the 99th percentile for mid-July around 22-24 degC. This would support Tuesday afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s and heat index values reaching up near the triple digits south of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Escarpment eastward towards the northern Finger Lakes region.

Two considerations for this next warm period across western NY are 1) increasing pressure gradient associated with a deeper low crossing Hudson Bay well to the north will lead to breezy conditions Tuesday providing relief from the heat, especially northeast of the lakes, and 2) this larger system moving into eastern Canada looks to breakdown/disrupt the upper level ridging pattern enough to limit this heat wave to just one day. While temperatures will still remain above average into late next week, western NY looks to end up on the cooler side of the trailing cold front late in the week, however uncertainty still remains at this time.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Much drier air is continuing to infiltrate the area. This should result in much lower probabilities of fog toward morning in the valleys around the hills of the Southern Tier and KJHW.
Elsewhere, clear skies and nothing but a cumulus cloud or two on Sunday resulting in VFR conditions throughout the forecast period on a weakening NNE flow.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Northeast winds gusting 10-15 kt will continue to result in a period of 1-3 foot waves through this afternoon and early evening for Lakes Erie and Ontario. Light winds are expected through the remainder of the weekend into Monday as high pressure settles over the area.
Pressure gradients begin to tighten Tuesday that will lead to gusty winds and notable wave activity.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.