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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 946 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely late this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 040711 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 211 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will lift across Lake Ontario and up the St. Lawrence Valley overnight. Colder air in the wake of the system will then transition lingering showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times through Monday night, especially across the higher terrain.
Only negligible snow accumulations are anticipated though with no real impacts.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A strong mid-level shortwave and associated widespread precipitation now moving into northern NY.

Weak, but steady CAA will continue through the day on Monday. Cold enough in fact for a weak lake response on a mainly W to eventually WNW flow which will direct any lake enhanced/effect precip E then ESE of both Lakes.

For tonight, this can already be see off Lake Erie with a band of lake effect RAIN showers stretching across far Southern Erie and nrn/nwrn portions of Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties respectively, while some upslope rain showers continue over Tug Hill in the wake of the low passage. Expect mainly liquid precip through at least daybreak, exception being across the Tug Hill/western Dacks late tonight with a coating of snow possible there. Low temps mainly in the mid to upper 30s, low 30s where the coating of snow is possible.

On Monday, cold air deepens enough to switch mixed rain/snow showers to snow across most terrain areas. Showers may get a boost in organization, coverage as well as another shortwave trough crosses.
Greatest coverage for the showers will be on the higher terrain E and eventually ESE of the Lakes. Though temps aloft are cooling, they are still on the marginal side for much snow sticking at the surface. Tug Hill/western Dacks will have afternoon readings near freezing, so may see an inch or so of new snow there. Otherwise, expect readings to only be a few degrees higher than morning lows under continued weak CAA. This will yield highs mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, mid 30s interior Southern Tier and low 30s Tug Hill/western Dacks.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday evening. A cool, westerly flow will remain over the relatively warm Lakes, however temperatures aloft are marginal especially across Lake Erie. An increase in ascent and moisture ahead of the shortwave trough will likely cause an uptick in shower activity across western NY Monday evening before moisture moves east and subsidence increases across the region. Rain and snow showers will diminish and become confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. A coating is possible on some hilltops. Colder air will be in place across the eastern Lake Ontario basin, however similarly to showers east of Lake Erie, diminishing moisture and increasing subsidence will cause showers to diminish east-southeast of Lake Ontario through Tuesday morning.

A clipper system will move southwest of the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. Increasing moisture from the southwest will increase chances for rain and snow showers across the western Southern Tier.
Not expecting impactful weather with very light amounts and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon. Behind this system cool, westerly flow will persist and a few light snow showers are possible Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will nose into the region Wednesday through Wednesday night. A few snow showers remain possible but impactful weather is not expected.
Wednesday will be the coldest weather of the stretch with highs in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday night lows will fall to the teens east of Lake Ontario to the low 20s across western NY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thursday and Thursday night surface-based ridging will slide off to our southeast...while a broad/loosely organized surface low makes its way across the northern Plains states. In between these two systems a broad swath of southwesterly low level flow and warm advection will overspread our area...with the latter being marked by the passage of a warm frontal zone across much of the area by later Thursday night. Associated deeper moisture and weak to modest isentropic ascent will bring a general chance of snow and rain showers to our area Thursday...with pcpn chances then diminishing from southwest to northeast Thursday night following the passage of the warm front
As for temps
the beginnings of the warm advection regime will allow Thursday's highs to recover to the upper 20s-mid 30s east and to the upper 30s-lower 40s west...with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday evening then giving way to steady or slowly rising readings later Thursday night.

On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
Across far western New York...some 50-degree readings will even be possible within areas of favored southerly/south-southwesterly downslope flow.

After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low. Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...
to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night. With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period...
while also keeping these capped in the chance range for now. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Widespread rain has pulled into northern NY. In its wake a few scattered rain showers remain, with some lake enhanced rain showers east of the Lakes. Visibility has also vastly improved across the area as some drier air on stronger winds has advected in across the region, with restrictions expected to be only associated with precipitation, mainly rain showers with some wet snow late higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, mainly MVFR CIGS expected for the remainder of the overnight, with some IFR across the higher terrain and lingering east of Lake Ontario until drier air works in there.

Mainly MVFR CIGS for Monday, some IFR CIGS remain over higher terrain. Scattered showers owed to lingering wraparound moisture, with lake enhanced/effect showers E then ESE of both Lakes, mostly rain with some wet snow higher terrain.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will significantly freshen tonight through Monday, with SCAs remaining in place through Monday evening/night for the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario nearshore marine zones. Wind gusts will reach 30 knots on both Lakes, with a few gusts to Gale force possible.

High pressure over the mid western states Monday evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday. This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.

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