Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugatuck, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

- Hot weather continues through Monday

Hot weather will continue Sunday and Monday with highs in the 90s in many areas. Maintained the current Heat Advisory headline through Sunday. We will likely need to extend it through Monday.
The heat has been well advertised and came in right on cue this morning. Heat index at 330pm at GRR is 99 and 101 at BTL. 850mb temperatures remain above +20C through Monday which will result in similar conditions each day. Warmest temperatures +24C via the ECWMF occur Sunday at 18Z. Dew points have reached summer like values in excess of 70F which is certainly when the humidity can be felt.

- Remaining warm through the rest of the work week

We truly remain warm the rest of the week too, as 850mb temperatures continue in the +17C to +21C range. These levels are still warm even by mid summer standards and without precipitation and clouds would push our temperatures towards 90. Mid to upper 80s are a very solid bet given the chances for showers and storms.

- Periodic chances for showers/storms Monday night through Friday

Periodic showers and storms are expected from Monday night through Friday as a cold front sags into the area from the north. The front stalls out mid week before taking on warm front characteristics late in the week. The bottom line is that a front will be in the area with a hot and humid airmass in place. Showers and storms will likely be diurnal in nature likely occurring in the afternoon and evening. There are no major shortwaves to key on, but the models are all kicking out precipitation almost each forecast period. Certainly not a rain out, but periodic activity can be expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions will dominate the weather pattern through the period. The main weather concern is the potential for LLWS overnight. If the surface doesn't decouple and gusty winds remain then the winds from aloft will mix down. However, latest trends show that even with the warm overnight lows, winds will drop to around 10kts at the surface. A 40 to 45 knot jet will move over the region between 02Z and 12Z. That would mean LLWS at BTL, AZO, JXN, LAN and GRR between those times ranging from 1500 FT to 2000 FT.

Gusty winds will again mix to the surface tomorrow by mid morning.

MARINE
Issued at 341 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Have left the Beach Hazard Statement and Small Craft Advisory in effect through Sunday evening. At some point however, there will need to be an extension for areas north of Holland through Monday evening.

Looking at buoy data this afternoon though wave heights are under performing a little bit and that is likely due to the warm air advection nature of the wind. Waves are mainly in the 3-5 foot range at the nearshore buoys. The Central Lake Michigan buoy west of Ludington has a 5.6 foot wave at 300pm.

A fresh south-southwest breeze will continue right through the rest of the weekend at 15 to 25 knots with some higher gusts at times near the shore.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night for MIZ037-043.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for MIZ050-056- 057-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.