NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 700 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers early. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain during the day, then a chance of rain Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 291530 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1030 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes this afternoon and evening which may bring another round of lake effect snow showers to areas northeast of the lakes with some minor additional accumulations possible. High pressure then builds in briefly Thursday bringing dry and warmer weather before generally unsettled but milder weather returns for the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Radar late this morning showing bands of lake effect snow continuing to lift northward. The lake band off Lake Erie has moved essentially moved north of the Niagara Frontier after creating a tricky morning commute across the Buffalo metro area. With the lake snow basically over for the Buffalo metro area have cancelled the advisory a bit early.

Lake band still fairly impressive northeast of Lake Ontario with snowfall rates still locally in excess of 2 inches per hour. This band likely bringing an additional snowfall of up to 4" through the ending time of the current headlines (noon) as it lifts north toward the Saint Lawrence River.

Winds veer back southwesterly late this afternoon and tonight as an area of low pressure develops across the upper Great Lakes. This will shift lingering lake bands back south across areas northeast of the Lakes this evening into the overnight. These bands will be weakening over time as warm air advection and subsidence steadily increase through the night. Additional accumulations will be light with possibly another inch or two across the Niagara Frontier and Jefferson County. With a warm advection regime in place, expect low temps will mainly occur during the evening with mainly mid to upper 20s across inland areas to the lower 30s along the lakeshores. Temps should then slowly rise for the remainder of the overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
This evening a shortwave trough will finish crossing the area.
In its wake the general south-southwesterly flow in place early in the evening will veer to west-southwesterly through much of the night...before starting to turn more southwesterly again late across far western New York as a modest wave of low pressure develops over the Upper Lakes. As a result the lake effect plumes will settle back to areas east-northeast of the lakes...though these will also be steadily weakening over time due to a combination of increasing warm air advection/subsidence aloft
diminishing moisture
and increasing directional shear
Consequently
expect any additional accumulations to be limited to another inch or two east/northeast of Lake Erie and 1-3 inches east/northeast of Lake Ontario...with the Lake Erie activity likely being reduced to just some remnant flurries by late in the night. Given the warm advection regime and a decent surface gradient...low temps will mostly occur during the first part of the evening and range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the lower 30s along the lakeshores...with slowly rising temps then following for the balance of the night.

On Thursday, last vestiges of lake effect will occur through mid morning northeast of Lake Ontario. Soundings show shallow moisture so very light snow or flurries should be result. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly sunny and dry day. Warm air advection will boost temps into the low to mid 40s. Even though 50 kt H85 jet will lead to breezy conditions over western NY, a low-level inversion should cap the potential for stronger winds. Thursday night, weakening boundary drops across northern areas. While the front will be weak in nature and thus should largely produce just some scattered light rain showers... contributions of moisture from the lakes will probably be sufficient to result in a period of more numerous rain showers east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight...where some wet snow will probably also mix in across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

By Friday morning, the front will slowly cross the area while also serving as a path for incoming southern stream shortwave trough.
This trough along with a coupled upper jet and deep moisture will result in a broad area of stratiform light rain (snow mixed in for highest terrain east of Lake Ontario). Ramped up pops to categorical and shifted axis of higher pops over all area based on model trends.
A raw day with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
System quickly exits on Friday evening across New England but some light rain/snow showers may linger mainly east of Lake Ontario in the evening. Basin averages with this system 0.25 to 0.50 so even with the melting snow in the snow belts, don't anticipate hydro issues.

Next southern stream wave quickly moves in late Friday night. Decent agreement in at least light precip to become more widespread, so increased pops late Friday night and carried this through most of Saturday. System is even warmer aloft than the one on Friday, so again mainly rain as ptype. Could be cold enough east of Lake Ontario for a mix initially though. Temperatures east of Lake Ontario don't rise much, but soundings still show lowest levels warm enough for mainly rain. Elsewhere, temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s will support rain. Basin averages similar to Friday system with most locations seeing less than 0.50 of rain. Not much forcing or deeper moisture in wake of the shortwave trough for Saturday night so just have some small chances for mixed rain/snow showers east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Uncertainty abounds early next week. Cutter system that has been shown is mainly off in the primary models for now, except the GFS.
Interesting though that even though EC and Canadian operational models are keeping main focus for low pressure off the east coast, their ensembles do show many members with a look more like the GFS.
If that occurs it would bring some cold air advection gusty winds into the picture later Monday with at least lake enhanced rain/snow showers developing on NW flow for Tuesday. Blended guidance had that general idea as did continuity. Kept that rolling and we can sort it out as we get closer to the time frame in question. Overall though no matter how you slice it, weather will remain active into early next week.

Temperatures will be slightly above average ahead Sunday and Monday but then will trend back to normal or even a bit below by the middle of next week. Even with the stronger GFS idea though, the cold air shown behind the system is fairly mundane (H85 temps not even as low as -10c) for what will be the first week of December.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake snows have shifted north of KBUF and KIAG with only light snow showers expected the rest of the day. Lake band northeast of Lake Ontario will impact KART with a period of moderate to heavy snow.
This will not last too long and probably be over by 17z-18z, but VSBY may drop to 1/2SM or lower when the band moves through.
Outside of lake snows expect mainly MVFR to low VFR flight conditions.

Another weak trough will produce a minor burst of lake enhanced snows later this evening into the overnight, with localized IFR possible northeast of the Lakes (KBUF/KIAG/KART), with again mainly MVFR to low VFR decks outside of the lake effect.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR with lake effect snow ending early.
Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Strong southwest flow will continue to keep winds and waves above headline criteria through Thursday night, with long duration Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River during this time.

Conditions quiet down Friday into the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ007.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until noon EST today for NYZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,