Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crystal Beach, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized gusty winds.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized gusty winds.

Current surface analysis depicts a low over southeastern Wisconsin/northwestern Illinois early this morning, supporting a warm front to extend southward from it and a cold front to extend west and northwest across the Wisconsin/Illinois border. This low will track across the central Great Lakes this morning before lifting east-northeast across New York state today. Ahead of the low an area of increasing mid-level winds, steep mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values will continue to work its way across far WNY early this morning. 0-6km wind shear will increase to between 20 and 30 knots while remain less than 20 knots across the Genesee Valley, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential to far western New York.
This being said, upstream convection, is beginning to work its way east across the region this morning, where numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region through Tuesday morning. Conditions are marginally favorable for an isolated severe thunderstorm across far western New York early this morning, with gusty winds will remain the favorable hazard. Additionally, due to the larger PWAT values, expect heavy rain with any stronger storm.

As mentioned previously, the surface low will track across New York state today, before becoming nearly stationary across north-central New York Tuesday night through Wednesday. While showers will taper off across far western New York later this morning, diurnal heating within a very soggy environment will support additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Meanwhile to the east, a low-level jet will wrap around the surface low, supporting a few strong thunderstorms where heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding across areas of the Finger Lakes eastward into north-central New York through this evening.

As the surface low settles across eastern New York tonight, wrap around moisture will support continued chances for showers across the entirety of the forecast area. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of western and north-central NY through Wednesday.

Key Message 2...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the work week.

An anomalous strong area of surface low pressure will gradually slide east off the coast of southern New England Thursday. This will support the plume of moisture to pull east, however some diurnally driven convection will be possible for areas inland from the lakes.
Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.

High pressure will then move in across the eastern Great Lakes for for the end of the work week supporting dry and seasonal weather.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge exits generally E'ward and a cold front should drift SE'ward across our region between ~12Z and ~19Z/Tues. In addition, a low pressure center along the front should wobble E'ward across the Lake Erie region and toward central NY. Behind the front, a trough lingers over western and central NY through 12Z/Wed. Our regional surface winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 knots ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, surface winds are expected to be NE'erly to NW'erly around 5 to 15 knots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist generally E'ward along and ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms may produce brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 knots. Conditions are expected to vary from VFR outside this convection to MVFR to LIFR in showers/storms with periods of torrential rainfall. Behind the cold front, isolated to scattered showers, steady to heavy at times, and widespread low ceilings in the MVFR to IFR range are expected as primarily NW'erly to N'erly and moist low-level upslope flow, and wrap-around rain on the backside of the low pressure system, impact our region. Periodic mist and MVFR to IFR visibility are expected with these showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the surface cold front, especially through this early evening.
Note: from mid-evening through 12Z/Tues, the most-persistent rain is expected to impact the Eastern Lake Ontario Region, interior Finger Lakes Region, and the Western Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected, especially on Wednesday into Wednesday night.

MARINE
Beach Hazards Statements for a high risk of rip currents and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for portions of our region. Please read those products for further details. A cold front will sweep SE'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario this morning through afternoon. Simultaneously, a deepening low along the front should wobble E'ward across the Lake Erie region and toward Central NY. Primarily S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots ahead of the front should veer to mainly NW'erly to N'erly and freshen to around 10 to 15 knots behind the front.
Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible later this afternoon.

During this evening through daybreak Thursday, a trough should linger over eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as the low wobbles ESE'ward to southern New England and weakens eventually.
NW'erly to NE'erly winds as strong as 15 to 25 knots and waves building to as large as 4 to 7 feet are expected this evening through Wednesday evening. NW'erly to N'erly winds should ease to around 10 to 15 knots during the predawn hours of Thursday morning. Waves should subside to 3 feet or less on Lake Erie and 4 feet or less on Lake Ontario by daybreak.

Variable winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected for NY waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario this Thursday through Saturday as a high pressure ridge slides E'ward across the eastern Great Lakes. Any lingering 4 footers on Lake Ontario should subside by early Thursday afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Wednesday evening for NYZ001-002.
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Thursday afternoon for NYZ003>006.
Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ043-044.