Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 6:05PM Friday October 30, 2020 3:32 PM EDT (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 5:30AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1026 Am Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy late this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest to 30 knots. Rain during the day, then lake effect rain and snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 53 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202010302115;;073263 FZUS51 KBUF 301426 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1026 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-302115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Beach, NY
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location: 42.85, -77.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 301821 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 221 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain and snow showers across western NY will come to end by this evening. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather areawide tonight and Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the region Sunday with rain showers, then turning much colder with possible accumulating lake effect snows Sunday night into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Radar shows light precipitation southeast of Lake Erie this afternoon. A mix of rain and snow showers have been observed at the surface and will diminish into this evening.

A chilly airmass has moved into the eastern Great Lakes region with H850T temperatures around -7 to -5C. Surface temperatures have barely reached 40 degrees this afternoon. A mid-level shortwave trough will move into New England this afternoon into this evening. Equilibrium levels will fall as high pressure and dry air come into the region. Most shower activity will come to an end by early this evening.

High pressure moves over the region tonight making for a cold period. Northwest flow across the Lakes will likely maintain lake clouds and a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight. Low temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s across Western NY and near the Lake shores to the teens east of Lake Ontario.

A mid-level ridge will track across the region Saturday while high pressure moves into southern New England. Dry conditions expected with daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 40s. A southerly wind increases Saturday afternoon and continues Saturday night. Mid-high level clouds will increase from the west Saturday night as a mid- level trough moves into the Great Lakes region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. First lake effect snow event of season expected Sunday night into early next week.

Satellite water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough moving southeast over northern Washington as of this afternoon. This feature is expected to deepen as it continues moving southeastward into the midwest, creating a far more amplified upper level pattern over the entire CONUS. Surface low pressure will become displaced to the northeast of this trough and into Canada as the trough axis digs into the great lakes Sunday morning. Its approach will be marked by rain overspreading the entire region by late Sunday morning. SW winds will also be breezy on Sunday. Highs will top out in upper 40s to lower 50s.

Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight. Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward 15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect snowfall for areas favored by nw winds Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr.

Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing trough and colder air.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Lingering lake effect Tuesday off Lake Ontario, then turning much warmer and drier.

Upper level trough starts day with its axis from Quebec to eastern New England. Sfc ridge expanding from southern United States toward Lower Great Lakes and Northeast will eventually diminish the lake effect on Tuesday, though a few flurries may continue to fly especially on southeast end of Lake Ontario. Once the ridge axis is east of our area by Wednesday, there goes our brief period of early winter weather as dry, breezy and much warmer conditions will close out the week as temps trend back above normal.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Light lake enhanced rain and snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Erie this afternoon. Best chance for any visibility reductions will be at KJHW through 21z. Low stratus across western NY will erode from the northeast and MVFR cigs at KIAG/KBUF will improve to VFR by 21z. MVFR/IFR cigs will continue at KJHW through 00z. VFR conditions expected at KART and KROC through the afternoon.

High pressure moves into the region tonight and Saturday. Northwest flow will produce a few lake snow showers near KROC tonight however intensity and coverage will be light. VFR conditions expected.

Outlook . Sunday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Sunday night through Tuesday . MVFR/IFR possible in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. Modest northerly wind flow will maintain small craft conditions along the southern shore of Lake Ontario this afternoon, then the pressure gradient will relax across the region. Sfc High builds into the region this evening and tonight with light winds developing and minimal wave action on both lakes overnight.

Sfc high exits off to our east on Saturday but will maintain light winds and wave action. Cold front approaches the region Saturday night with strengthening southwesterly wind flow. Another round of SCA will likely be needed for the second half of the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042>044.



SYNOPSIS . AR/HSK NEAR TERM . HSK SHORT TERM . JLA/PP LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . HSK MARINE . AR/HSK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 34 mi33 min N 8.9 G 11 38°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 35 mi45 min 38°F 1019.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi45 min N 11 G 15 36°F 1019.4 hPa24°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi40 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr45N7
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5NE75N7665NE666N56N5CalmN76N94N7NW10
1 day agoW8W6CalmCalmS4SW3SW44W4S4CalmSW445CalmSW4S5S33Calm--E7E6E4
2 days ago6N5NW4NW3CalmSW4SW3S3CalmS5S4SW3W3CalmCalmCalm4CalmSW3SW5SW4W856

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.