Wednesday, January20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:14PM Wednesday January 20, 2021 2:02 AM EST (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 12:07AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 643 Pm Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers early, then lake effect snow showers likely. Scattered snow showers late.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Scattered snow showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of snow showers Sunday night. The water temperature off buffalo is 34 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202101200415;;182477 FZUS51 KBUF 192343 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 643 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-200415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 200610 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 110 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight through early Wednesday morning, with scattered light snow showers and minor accumulations outside of lake effect areas. Several more weak systems will cross the eastern Great Lakes through the end of the week with frequent chances of snow showers. Temperatures will be colder Wednesday, then briefly milder Thursday before turning colder again over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. . Significant Lake Snows East of the Lakes Diminish on Wednesday .

A persistent cyclonic flow will circulate colder air across the region . with H85 temps falling to -15c by Wednesday morning. This will maintain significant lake snows east of the lakes where lake snow warnings remain in effect into Wednesday morning. The steering flow will veer from roughly 280 overnight to 300 on Wednesday when the region will be found in the H85 thermal trough. While this sub arctic airmass will tend to expand the lake snows over the region (largely due to spray off Lake Ontario) . a crashing cap will leads to MUCH less efficient snow-making southeast of the lakes. Even so, much of western NY to the Finger Lakes will pick up a couple inches of snow on Wednesday.

Lake Erie .

Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snows will persist across northern Chautauqua . southern Erie and Wyoming county through much of the remainder of the overnight As we push towards daybreak. the lake snows over Cattaraugus county will intensify as well. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will continue beneath the most intense portion of the band. This will result in 6-10 inches of fresh snow tonight for the current warned areas in the most persistent bands.

On Wednesday . a 300 flow will aim somewhat widespread but less intense lake snows across the Southern Tier especially by afternoon. A cap crashing to under 5k ft will limit rates and snow amounts to a general 1-3".

Lake Ontario .

Lake snows have been well organized, albeit in a very narrow band for most of the night drifting slowly south across the Tug Hill region. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour will continue overnight beneath this band that will continue to focus on the southern part of the Tug Hill before pushing further south across Oswego county towards daybreak. Expect additional accumulations of 5-9 inches across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill, less in the surrounding lower elevations.

By early Wednesday morning, likely just before daybreak, veering of boundary layer flow will carry the lake effect snow onshore along much of the south shore, bringing a quick burst of snow showers and 1-2 inches of accumulation, including the Rochester area. This will quickly break up to scattered snow showers southeast of the lake and weaken, with little additional accumulation from late morning on.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Wind flow backs to the southwest ahead of a warm front, any residual lake effect snow showers will then likely end or be in the process of shutting down early Wednesday evening. With the arrival of the warm front there may be a few spotty snow showers, not anticipating anything of significance at this time. Meanwhile, the low pressure over southwestern Ontario will swing its cold front towards and then across the Lower Lakes just before daybreak Thursday. Once again, there may be some snow showers with the cold front. In regards to temperatures, lows will actually occur early then slowly climb ahead of the cold front. Low to mid 20s will be found south and southeast of both lakes, colder east of Lake Ontario where teens will be quite common.

Thursday, the low will continue to slowly head east arriving over the western fringes of Quebec by days end. As the low nears, winds will then begin to veer more to the west and moisture will deepen across the region. Expect scattered snow showers to become more numerous with the potential for some accumulating lake enhanced snows, especially east of Lake Ontario where several inches of snow may be possible overnight Thursday.

Friday, a secondary front tied to the weakening low pressure system will then swing through the region as it steams off towards New England. In its wake, H850T fall from -9/-10C to -17/-18C with winds then veering a bit further to the WNW. This will nudge any lake enhanced snows to the south and southeast of both lake by Friday evening.

Friday night, numerous lake effect snow showers can be expected southeast of both lakes overnight. It will also be much colder with temperatures falling off into the low to mid teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cold NW'erly flow will support scattered to numerous snow showers across the region Saturday.

Saturday night, ridging aloft and the sfc high building in from the west will quickly end any left over snow showers overnight.

Sfc high pressure will provide dry and fair weather Sunday but cold conditions with highs peaking in the teens east of Lake Ontario, low to mid 20s elsewhere.

Monday through Tuesday, 12Z ECMWF shows a weak shortwave trough dropping through the NW'erly flow and sfc ridging maintaining dry weather through the end of this period. The GFS has split zonal flow with a southern stream short wave passing by to our south as it tracks into and through the Mid-Atlantic. This solution could potentially bring some light snow accumulations to Western NY during the Sunday night into Monday time frame. Low confidence at this point in this period of time. Have put low end chance POPs for now. However, it could even be dry to start the new work weak.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Widespread MVFR cigs will be found over the western counties overnight as lake snow showers will be fairly common. Lake snows will be concentrated though east of both lakes where IFR to LIFR vsbys in heavy lake snow will be in place. This will mainly impact sites such as KJHW . KDKK and KELZ. For sites north of the Tug Hill . conditions have improved to VFR and should stay there for much of the night.

On Wednesday . MVFR cigs across the bulk of the region will improve to low VFR levels as the lake snow showers diminish in coverage. The Southern Tier will remain an issue through at least mid morning with IFR conditons in steady lake snow. For the Eastern Lake Ontario region . VFR conditions are forecast to deteriorate a bit to MVFR as cigs temporarily lower.

Increasing low level moisture Wednesday night will lead to fairly widespread MVFR cigs . and eventually some light snow by daybreak Thursday.

Outlook .

Thursday through Friday . MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Scattered snow showers. Sunday . Generally VFR.

MARINE. Moderate westerlies will slowly veer to WNW overnight through Wednesday morning, with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing on Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Winds and waves will briefly drop off later Wednesday and Wednesday evening . then a deep sfc low passing to our north will promote freshening again for late Wednesday night through the end of the week, supporting more small craft advisory conditions especially on Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ006-008. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ012-019-020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Hitchcock/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi45 min WNW 15 G 17 27°F 36°F1013 hPa12°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi45 min 29°F 1012.5 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi45 min 27°F 1013.1 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi63 min W 21 G 25 30°F 1012.4 hPa (-2.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi63 min WNW 19 G 22 30°F 1013.9 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi69 minW 74.00 miLight Snow29°F23°F78%1013.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi70 minWNW 103.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F23°F85%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW5N5N4NW3NE4NW3NW4W3W7W6W5SW10W8SW7W11W8W9W7W11W7W9W5W4SW13
2 days agoW14SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.