Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 4:44PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:25 PM EST (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 404 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow showers overnight.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers during the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. The water temperature off buffalo is 46 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202011301630;;615255 FZUS51 KBUF 300904 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 404 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-301630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.85, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 301501 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1001 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track across Pennsylvania and bring a soaking rainfall to the area today with around an inch of rain. Tonight, rain will change to snow across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier resulting in accumulating snows there through Wednesday. Elsewhere, rain showers will gradually transition over to snow from west to east by Tuesday evening with light accumulations anticipated.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Radar shows rain has spread across almost the entire region by 10 a.m. The low pressure system responsible for this rain will continue to rapidly track across the Appalachians and into Pennsylvania today while strengthening to 993mb. Deep moisture and large scale accent underneath the right entrance region of a +120 H250 jet will bring a soaking rainfall to the region. Rainfall amounts today should generally range from three quarters to an inch, but pockets of over an inch are likely. As we progress through the day, moderate rainfall will then taper to lighter rain or drizzle late this afternoon as a mid-level dry slot works into the region. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient to the west of the deepening sfc low will lead to breezy north to northeast winds in the afternoon, especially across western NY.

Otherwise, the moist northeast flow will cause fog to develop, especially south of Lake Ontario and across higher terrain in the Southern Tier.

Update nudges forecast highs down across the lake plains where temperatures will struggle to rise much with the rain. Expect limited warming across the Western Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region where a southeasterly flow will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 40s today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. By tonight, the upper-level low will be over the Ohio Valley with the associated surface low riding through central New York state. Some model variance in the surface low track, but really looks too small to make much of difference in the overall forecast. Mid level slot slot accelerating northward into the area on the eastern flank of the upper circulation will diminish the rain across eastern area early tonight. At the same time, wrap around synoptic moisture will be making its way into western New York. The rain/snow line will be advancing eastward during the evening as cold air advection works in on the back side of the surface low. Higher terrain of the western Southern Tier will be the first to see a mix with wet snow, probably a couple hours or so before midnight. A change over to snow will continue for the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier overnight with wet snow eventually mixing in across lower elvations of western New York. Expect that only the higher terrain will see any accumulation late tonight, perhaps on the order of a couple of inches.

Cold air on the back side of the low will continue to deepen over the region from the west Tuesday. While lower elevations could see a mix of rain/wet snow or perhaps even all snow for a time Tuesday, accumulations will be limited, with the greater likelihood for accumulations confined to higher terrain.

By Tuesday night, the majority of the region will be cold enough to see mainly snow. The coldest air aloft will arrive at this time with 850 mb temperatures cooling to between -7 and -9 degrees C which will produce ample over-lake instability to produce a lake response east and northeast of the lakes which will last into Wednesday, producing moderate to locally heavy snowfall total across the western Southern Tier.

Storm totals will varying widely across the region. Highest totals are expected to be across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills where local amounts of over a foot are quite possible. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the higher terrain of southern Erie, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Lower elevations of the warning counties, as well as the the Niagara Frontier looking at much lower snow totals, likely less than 3 inches. It is possible that several inches of accumulation will impact the Wyoming Hills and western portions of Allegany county, but these amounts should hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday, but headlines may eventually be needed for these areas.

Areas east of Lake Ontario will see limited accumulations through Tuesday, but could see enhanced snowfall totals as we move into Wednesday and Wednesday night as a favorable lake enhanced/upslope flow develops.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cut off upper level low over the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday will get picked up by a shortwave trough rounding the northern-stream longwave trough. These two upper level features will produce two lows at the surface which will produce the weather for Friday and the weekend.

The aforementioned shortwave will produce surface low which will push east across Canada and drag its associated frontal feature across the region Friday producing chances for showers.

As the upper level low interacts with the shortwave, a surface low will deepen and push northeast up along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday, which again will produce chances for showers.

Some disagreement still with placement of the sfc low that develops over the SE U.S. late Saturday into early Sunday, and its track, so kept chance POPs for now.

Temperatures for the long term period will be near normal.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. CIGS, and even in some vsby, will produce MVFR/IFR conditions across the entire region by late this morning in advance of the sfc low. In addition to the rain, fog may also develop, especially along the south shore of Lake Ontario. By late this afternoon, lowering CIGS will likely produce IFR/LIFR conditions at all terminals.

Tonight, sfc low steams northward into the region and then stalls over the area. IFR/LIFR conditions will continue across all terminals. Rain will also transition to snow across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier as colder air wraps in around the low.

Outlook .

Tuesday . IFR/LIFR with snow across the higher terrain of S. Tier. Rain/Snow Showers transitions to all snow with MVFR/IFR elsewhere. Wednesday . MVFR to VFR with rain and snow showers. Thursday . Mainly VFR. Friday . VFR to MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.

MARINE. Low pressure will track across Pennsylvania today and then it will move back across Lake Ontario tonight. This will support small craft headlines on most of nearshores as outlined below.

There may be a brief drop in winds as the low gets closer, but winds will pick up again when the system pulls away to the north Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring or extend more small craft headlines, and winds on Lake Erie may even approach gale force.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ019-020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030-042>045.



SYNOPSIS . AR NEAR TERM . AR/Apffel SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . EAJ/SW AVIATION . AR MARINE . AR/Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi56 min N 11 G 15 42°F 47°F1001 hPa28°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 11 mi56 min 43°F 999.4 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi86 min N 12 G 16 41°F 42°F1000.6 hPa (-4.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 16 mi56 min 42°F 1001.6 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi26 min N 27 G 30 42°F 997.3 hPa (-5.2)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi26 min NE 18 G 21 42°F 1002 hPa (-4.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY18 mi32 minNNE 14 G 193.00 miRain Fog/Mist42°F39°F89%999.5 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi33 minNNE 144.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F93%1001.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW19
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SW12SW8S6S4S4S4S6SE5SE3SE6SE4E7SE5S4E6E6SE8E4NE5NE8NE8N14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.