Lake Fenton, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Fenton, MI

April 21, 2024 7:56 AM EDT (11:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 5:22 PM   Moonset 4:47 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 944 Pm Edt Sat Apr 20 2024

Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A gale warning may be needed.

Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Light showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Fenton, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 210951 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 551 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Uncertainty exists in timing the clearing early today across Southeast Michigan.

- Areas of frost are possible tonight. A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may be needed for portions of Southeast Michigan.

- Warming trend continues Monday with dry and sunny conditions.

- Showers and possibly a thunderstorm arrive Tuesday with gustier winds.

AVIATION

The resident stratus deck based between 4000 and 5000 ft is gradually clearing from northwest to southeast across Mid Michigan, a trend expected to continue through the rest of the area this morning as a subsident pattern takes hold. Timing of clearing still carries a fair amount of uncertainty, especially with southeastward extent, but latest data suggests the stratus should clear out of lower MI by 16Z. Prevailing VFR today with deep boundary layer mixing supporting westerly wind gusting to 20 to 25 knots. FEW diurnal clouds around 6000 ft remain possible this afternoon before SKC becomes favored this evening into tonight. Winds quickly taper off with the loss of daytime heating and remain light and variable tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. Low after 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

DISCUSSION...

The heart of composite trough and lowered H85 geopotential heights is located over Southeast Michigan this morning. The big uncertainty for today is the exit timing of clouds as extensive 4.5 to 5.0 kft agl stratus deck remains in place across all of the southern two thirds of the Lower Peninsula. Models show midlevel differential warm advection at the midlevels beginning in the 12-15Z timeframe corresponding to a drop of saturation in the modeled RH fields. Flow trajectories are decidedly anticyclonic today with a considerable amount of warming shown in the sub inversion layer 3.5 - 6.0 kft agl layer. Expectations still remain for sunshine during the afternoon, but did raise sky cover percentage well into the mid to late morning hours given the sluggish satellite trends. With insolation, boundary layer mixing will result in west winds today of 15 to 25 mph.
Apparent temperatures should run some 15 degrees higher than yesterday, resulting in a more pleasant day.

Building surface high pressure and Great Lakes mesohigh contribution will lead to a backdooring of a weak, very shallow cold front southward from the Thumb through Metro Detroit between 03-11Z tonight. It is difficult to say exactly what this will do to the temperature response as there should be a slight increase in mixing and windspeed immediately behind the front. Regardless, surface high pressure with clearing will lead to cold conditions tonight.
Guidance suggests a little bit of struggle to get into the lower 30s in the urban heat island of Detroit, but confidence is high the northern cwa will see some areas dip to 30 degrees or below. A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may be issued later today for portions of Southeast Michigan.

Models show a quick reemergence of southwesterly winds on Monday.
Deep high pressure center aloft is forecasted to pass through the northern Ohio River Valley with pervasive anticyclonic flow across Southeast Michigan. Plenty of early day sunshine with temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees Monday.

Open trough with coherent upper level jet maximum is then forecasted to release through Southeast Michigan on Tuesday. Abrupt increase in moisture coinciding with lead edge of vorticity maximum will result in widespread/categorical rain chances particularly Tuesday afternoon. Model consensus has been strong in favor of a 6-9 hour period in precipitation chances during the day Tuesday. The current grids are way too broadbrushed and will need considerable refinement. Forecast soundings point to a well defined frontal inversion centered at 7-8 kft agl with very poor lapse rates from the surface to approximately 700mb. A rumble of thunder will certainly be possible with the projected UVV response and conditionally unstable midlevels, however, any potential for strong to severe storms appears to be extremely low. Cold air aloft will then push down into Southeast Michigan Tuesday night. There will again be PoP chances overnight as steepening lapse rates in the lowest 7000 ft should result in some shower activity. This secondary period for precipitation potential is likely stringing out the PoPs for almost 24 hours. Again, there will be opportunities to refine the PoPs.

Models support very stable conditions Wednesday, Thursday, and much of the day Friday. Models show strong signal for deep subsidence between 4.0 and 14.0 kft agl Wednesday then lowering to the surface for Thursday. Very low RH conditions should be in place Thursday afternoon. The next precipitation chances will come late in the day Friday as warm air advection increases instantaneously as blocking high retreats out of Southeast Michigan. Current indications suggest a lagged response of warming and humidity at the surface, leading to higher stability in the lowest 5000 ft Friday evening/Friday night.
Low confidence exists on Saturday as Southeast Michigan is progged to be in the warm sector of central United States low pressure system. The only problem here locally is that anticyclonic flow trajectories will likely be favored through Saturday which casts considerable doubt on track and timing of individual shortwaves.

MARINE...

Low pressure dropping southeast over far eastern Ontario draws a cold front through the central Great Lakes late this afternoon- evening. Result is a shift from westerly to northwesterly flow as well as an uptick in strength particularly over the northern half of Lake Huron as the gradient tightens. Gusts in this area expected to reach 25-30kts this evening with 15-25kts more likely over the rest of the region. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Saginaw Bay this late morning through the evening due to these stronger winds. A broad region of high pressure stretching from northern Ontario to the southern Plains briefly works over the area tonight into the first half of Monday bringing a period of quieter marine weather conditions. Active pattern then returns Tuesday as low pressure ejects out of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes bringing widespread showers, a chance for a few thunderstorms, and stronger southwesterly winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFNT BISHOP INTL,MI 8 sm63 minW 0510 smOvercast37°F27°F65%30.09
KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI 20 sm63 minWNW 0810 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.08
KOZW LIVINGSTON COUNTY SPENCER J HARDY,MI 21 sm21 minW 0510 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.09
KRNP OWOSSO COMMUNITY,MI 24 sm21 minWSW 0610 smOvercast37°F25°F60%30.09
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Wind History from FNT
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Detroit, MI,



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