Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Town Line, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cool and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday morning with a few rounds of showers, along with rain free time.

2) Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to persist well into next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday morning with a few rounds of showers, along with rain free time.

A series of shortwaves will continue to support rounds of showers across the region today through Saturday morning, but each round will be relatively brief with plenty of rain free time in the mix.

The next mid level shortwave will enter Western NY before daybreak, then reach the Finger Lakes and Central NY later this morning. A brief period of DPVA and moisture convergence ahead of the shortwave will support a concentrated area of showers crossing Western NY early this morning, then the Finger Lakes and Central NY from mid morning through midday. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally less than 0.20". Subsidence and dry air in the wake of this shortwave will allow dry weather to return this afternoon. Cool air aloft will continue to support cu/stratocu development this afternoon inland from the lakes, with stable lake shadows allowing for more sunshine east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Dry weather will prevail through this evening as a bubble of high pressure drifts east of the eastern Great Lakes. Overnight, a southern stream shortwave and upper level jet segment will allow a baroclinic wave to develop and track from the Ohio Valley into PA overnight. Thermal packing and increasing frontogenesis along and north of the baroclinic wave will bring another period of rain to the Southern Tier overnight through Saturday morning. The northern edge of this shield of rain will move into the Finger Lakes and Central NY for a few hours Saturday morning, but areas farther north and west should stay mainly dry, including the Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of unsettled and cool conditions to persist well into next week.

The active weather pattern appears to continue through the weekend, and then likely well into next week. After some dry time Saturday afternoon the next chance for some showers arrives Saturday eve and then continues into Sunday as a wavy cold front slips through the region. A cool cyclonic flow will follow the front Monday, with a chance of some scattered showers as the trough crosses the region.

A weak surface ridge moves over the region Tuesday with a brief period of dry weather ahead of the next upstream trough set to arrive Wednesday. Wet and continued cool conditions return Wednesday with continued chances for showers through the rest of the week as a deep trough resides across the eastern U.S.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The next in a series of shortwaves will cross the eastern Great Lakes this morning, bringing a brief period of ascent and deeper moisture. This will support a concentrated area of showers crossing Western NY early this morning, then the Finger Lakes and Central NY mid morning through midday. Expect a brief period of lower end VFR/MVFR CIGS and VSBY within the area of showers, with the most widespread MVFR conditions across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Mainly dry weather will return this afternoon behind the departing shortwave. Expect plenty of cumulus and stratocumulus this afternoon inland from the lakes with VFR bases. Stable lake shadows will bring more sunshine over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon.

Dry weather will prevail this evening. Another weak wave of low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley into PA overnight, spreading another area of rain into the Southern Tier by late tonight. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, with some IFR possible near the PA state line.
VFR will prevail elsewhere with thickening and lowering mid level clouds overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Rain with MVFR/IFR in the morning from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. Mainly VFR in the afternoon with a few more scattered showers possible.

Saturday night.. MVFR with showers likely.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Relatively light southwest winds today will become southerly and increase into the 10 to 15 knot range tonight through Saturday, with winds and waves remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday. Southwest to west winds will increase with the passage of the front, especially on Lake Ontario. Wave action will become very choppy at a minimum, with a chance of low end Small Craft Advisory conditions at the east end of Lake Ontario later Saturday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.