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FXUS63 KFSD 282341 AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 541 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday, but long term forecasts continue to show near to above normal highs through the weekend.

- Dry weather persists over much of the region, with only a very low probability (10-20%) for light snow Saturday night.

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THIS AFTERNOON: Clear skies continue across the region this afternoon as a front slides eastward. Temperatures continue to rise well above normal and into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The aforementioned front will pass eastward this evening, bringing light westerly winds through the area into Wednesday morning. Temperatures as a result may stay a bit warmer than previous forecast indicated, with valley and sheltered areas dropping towards the 20 degree mark.

Favorable westerly winds, sunny skies, and weak warm advection continues for Wednesday. With continued drought conditions in most areas, have trended temperatures above the 75th percentile for temperatures, which results in highs in the middle to upper 40s.
A few spots could reach the 50 degree mark based on today's high temperatures.

A stronger push of cold air moves in for Thursday and Friday, though we're only looking at high temperatures a few degrees below normal to finish the work week. Dry weather persists.

Broad troughing forms over the CONUS heading into the weekend and this will allow a trough to move through the Plains Saturday night into Sunday. Latest guidance continues to shift the best chances for any precipitation southward, with the latest ensemble guidance suggesting only 10-20% probabilities of light snow Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.

Slightly sharper northwest flow develops into early next week, posing the potential for a clipper or two to drop southeast into the Northern Plains or Great Lakes early next week. Temperatures may moderate upwards slightly, and we'll watch for a low risk (20-30%) for precipitation moving into the Plains with these clippers.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR is expected for the period. Winds are westerly and are expected to remain light through Wednesday morning. Winds will become southerly and increase to 5-10 kts for the afternoon. There is a risk for LLWS tonight as the LLJ picks up for KFSD and KSUX from approximately 29.02Z-29.05Z. Shear of 30-35 kts are possible during this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

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Sioux falls, SD,