NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KFSD 280452 AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1052 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Key Messages:

- Normal to above average temperatures remain on track to return tomorrow through the rest of the forecast period.

- No significant weather/precipitation expected over the next 7 days.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Quiet conditions continue across the area this afternoon as this mornings flurries/light snow have pushed out of the area. Surface ridging is beginning to slide across the Northern Plains. As a result of the ridging, afternoon breezy winds will wane to light to nearly calm for most of the overnight hours. However, this ridge will quickly push southeast of the forecast area, resulting in southerly return flow by the end of the night. Warm air advection (WAA) will also strengthen aloft for the back half of the night.
Have slightly nudged up low temperatures because of the WAA and southerly winds. Lows are expected to fall to the teens to low 20s.
A few hi-res guidance members suggest that fog may be possible tonight. Given the timing of the ridge coming through, think that only a small window of time would allow for any fog to develop. The HRRR ceiling and visibility probabilities both remain relatively low (at or below 30% chance) for ceilings below 1000 ft and visibilities below a quarter of a mile. Will continue to monitor trends in fog potential but as of now, confidence in any fog potential is low (<30% chance).

Despite a generally active northern jet, dry and quiet conditions are expected for the rest of the week as moisture remains scarce. 850 mb temperatures remain in the single digits aloft through Wednesday before a dry cold front pushes through the region on Thursday. Highs into the 40s and possibly 50s are expected. The cold front will cool 850 mb temperatures to below zero degrees celsius for the rest of the forecast period. This will return high temperatures closer to seasonal with highs in the upper 30s to the low to mid 40s.

One shortwave trough will pass well south of the area Thursday into Friday but a second wave looks to pass through the central Plains late Saturday into Sunday morning. The best dynamics with this system look to pass south of our area but some precipitation may get wrapped around to the north side of the wave. The Euro and Canadian ensembles have stayed relatively the same in terms of probabilities for exceeding a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation with probabilities between 20-50%. The GFS ensemble has slightly increased its probabilities up to 20-40% for the same amount of QPF.
Ensemble clustering shows a similar solution with the most favored cluster showing a 20-30% chance for receiving a tenth of an inch of QPF or more. For now, have stuck with model blended PoPs at this time. After this system pushes off to the east, quiet conditions look to be in store for early next week.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions expected for the period. Winds are light and variable, and clouds are decreasing. Some patchy fog is possible if near surface temperatures can reach saturation. However, increasing southerly winds by early morning leave confidence in fog formation too low to include in the TAFs. Mid-level clouds increase for Tuesday morning, with scattered to broken clouds across the region.
Winds will follow a diurnal trend for Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, eventually becoming westerly by afternoon. A brief period of LLWS is possible from east central SD east into southwestern MN (KBKX to KTKC) as the northwesterly LLJ picks up. Speed shear of 35-40 kts is possible between 29.00Z and 29.05Z.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Sioux falls, SD,