Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yankton, SD
January 13, 2025 5:58 PM CST (23:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:55 AM Sunset 5:15 PM Moonrise 4:57 PM Moonset 8:14 AM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KFSD 132325 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 525 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Light snow returns this afternoon and evening. While amounts are expected to mainly be a half an inch or less for most locations, a few spots could see up to around an inch. The highest snowfall totals will fall across south central South Dakota.
- Cold wind chills are expected tonight with wind chill values down to -5 to -20F. The coldest wind chills will reside across southwest Minnesota.
- Roller coaster temperatures are expected throughout the week.
Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday, warming mid week, then plummeting on Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Cloud cover continues to overspread the area this afternoon as the next chance for light snow is just beginning to work its way into locations across central South Dakota. This light snow is expected to push south/southeastwards and expand in coverage. The expansion in coverage will result in a band of snow that is being forced from frontogenesis (FGEN) between 925-850mb. This could be a tighter band of snow as latest hi-res guidance shows a hint of negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the FGEN surface. This could also slightly increase snowfall amounts. However, think that amounts generally remain on track with most locations seeing below a half an inch with a few isolated spots seeing up to around an inch, highest across south central South Dakota.
The other aspect to tonight is cold wind chills across the area.
Wind chills are expected to fall to -5F to about -20F overnight tonight, coldest across southwest Minnesota. A few locations across southwest Minnesota could see wind chills fall near -25F (Cold Weather Advisory criteria). However, have held off on issuing an Advisory at this time as there remains some uncertainty in how long clouds cover will last overnight. On top of this, HRRR probabilities for apparent Temperature's falling below -25F remains at a 30-40% chance. Short term trends will be monitored for the rest of today though. That said, make sure to bundle up as you head out the door for work tomorrow!
Tuesday will be a cold but quiet day as the previously mentioned surface high pressure system sinks southward. 850 mb temperatures down to around -10C will result in another day of below average high temperatures with highs only warming to about 10F-20F. Although winds will be light and variable, the light winds will keep cold wind chills going through the day with wind chills down to either side of 0F. Low temperatures will only fall to the positive single digits overnight, keeping wind chills confined to about 0 to -10F.
While not near headline criteria, it will still be another cold night.
Temperatures begin to warm on Wednesday as weak upper level ridging builds into the Northern Plains. Mid level warm air advection (WAA)
will push 925 mb temperatures up to either side of 0C aloft. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in above average high temperatures up to the upper 20s and 30s. The Northern Plains will reside on the edge of the upper ridge on Thursday. This will warm 925mb temperatures a touch more, up to the single digits above 0C.
This will result in high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 30s and low 40s. The warmest temperatures will reside along the Missouri River. Low temperatures both days will fall to the 20s overnight.
The warm temperatures will not last long though as a strong cold front will push through the Northern Plains on Friday. This will bring a new arctic airmass to the region. While high temperatures on Friday may still reach the 30s to potentially up to about 40F, temperatures will quickly plummet to the single digits and teens overnight. With a new airmass in place, below average temperatures will continue as high temperatures only warm to the teens to low 20s on Saturday and single digits on Sunday. Low temperatures will fall to the negative single digits Saturday night and negative single digits to negative teens Sunday night. Breezy winds look to accompany the cold temperatures which could result in future Cold Weather Advisories being needed. Too far out to say for sure at this time but trends will be monitored.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
A quick southward moving band of snow will push through the area this evening. Most locations will remain VFR, but a brief period of MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible near and west of the James River. The chance for these conditions would be mainly before midnight. Otherwise VFR conditions will be widespread after about 6z. Cold overnight lows of zero to -10 are expected tonight.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 525 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Light snow returns this afternoon and evening. While amounts are expected to mainly be a half an inch or less for most locations, a few spots could see up to around an inch. The highest snowfall totals will fall across south central South Dakota.
- Cold wind chills are expected tonight with wind chill values down to -5 to -20F. The coldest wind chills will reside across southwest Minnesota.
- Roller coaster temperatures are expected throughout the week.
Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday, warming mid week, then plummeting on Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Cloud cover continues to overspread the area this afternoon as the next chance for light snow is just beginning to work its way into locations across central South Dakota. This light snow is expected to push south/southeastwards and expand in coverage. The expansion in coverage will result in a band of snow that is being forced from frontogenesis (FGEN) between 925-850mb. This could be a tighter band of snow as latest hi-res guidance shows a hint of negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the FGEN surface. This could also slightly increase snowfall amounts. However, think that amounts generally remain on track with most locations seeing below a half an inch with a few isolated spots seeing up to around an inch, highest across south central South Dakota.
The other aspect to tonight is cold wind chills across the area.
Wind chills are expected to fall to -5F to about -20F overnight tonight, coldest across southwest Minnesota. A few locations across southwest Minnesota could see wind chills fall near -25F (Cold Weather Advisory criteria). However, have held off on issuing an Advisory at this time as there remains some uncertainty in how long clouds cover will last overnight. On top of this, HRRR probabilities for apparent Temperature's falling below -25F remains at a 30-40% chance. Short term trends will be monitored for the rest of today though. That said, make sure to bundle up as you head out the door for work tomorrow!
Tuesday will be a cold but quiet day as the previously mentioned surface high pressure system sinks southward. 850 mb temperatures down to around -10C will result in another day of below average high temperatures with highs only warming to about 10F-20F. Although winds will be light and variable, the light winds will keep cold wind chills going through the day with wind chills down to either side of 0F. Low temperatures will only fall to the positive single digits overnight, keeping wind chills confined to about 0 to -10F.
While not near headline criteria, it will still be another cold night.
Temperatures begin to warm on Wednesday as weak upper level ridging builds into the Northern Plains. Mid level warm air advection (WAA)
will push 925 mb temperatures up to either side of 0C aloft. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in above average high temperatures up to the upper 20s and 30s. The Northern Plains will reside on the edge of the upper ridge on Thursday. This will warm 925mb temperatures a touch more, up to the single digits above 0C.
This will result in high temperatures warming to the mid to upper 30s and low 40s. The warmest temperatures will reside along the Missouri River. Low temperatures both days will fall to the 20s overnight.
The warm temperatures will not last long though as a strong cold front will push through the Northern Plains on Friday. This will bring a new arctic airmass to the region. While high temperatures on Friday may still reach the 30s to potentially up to about 40F, temperatures will quickly plummet to the single digits and teens overnight. With a new airmass in place, below average temperatures will continue as high temperatures only warm to the teens to low 20s on Saturday and single digits on Sunday. Low temperatures will fall to the negative single digits Saturday night and negative single digits to negative teens Sunday night. Breezy winds look to accompany the cold temperatures which could result in future Cold Weather Advisories being needed. Too far out to say for sure at this time but trends will be monitored.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
A quick southward moving band of snow will push through the area this evening. Most locations will remain VFR, but a brief period of MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible near and west of the James River. The chance for these conditions would be mainly before midnight. Otherwise VFR conditions will be widespread after about 6z. Cold overnight lows of zero to -10 are expected tonight.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KYKN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KYKN
Wind History Graph: YKN
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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