Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eggertsville, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Diurnal activity associated with the passage of a weak short wave trough will continue to wane as we get deeper into the evening. What is on radar as of 7 PM is generally concentrated in the Souther Tier, and this is likely to remain the case for the next hour or two before all areas go dry. As this activity dies off, skies will scatter out for the remainder of the evening areawide.

Upstream, impressively well-developed convective activity is ongoing over the western Great Lakes area. This activity is featured in all hi-res model guidance making a trek toward WNY through the night. It will arrive in the pre-dawn hours, however it will likely be decaying as it does so. The boundary forcing it will be becoming more strung out as it approaches our area, and instability will be waning due to a poor arrival window in the diurnal cycle. SPC has our area in a marginal risk for severe weather with the passage of this boundary centered around 12z/8 AM in WNY, and this is probably more bullish than seems necessary at this juncture. Nonetheless, there may well still be thunderstorms along the boundary as it shifts through the CWA early Friday morning.

Convective activity along the boundary continues to move eastward on Friday morning with less and less fanfare as it does so. In its wake, ample boundary layer moisture will remain due to a poor air mass change. Because of this, as mid-level clouds start to peel off, scattered showers and thunderstorms would seem to be possible again as up to roughly 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will still be around to work with from the Genesee Valley eastward. Shear will be lacking by afternoon, and mid-level flow drops off too, so the threat for severe by afternoon would seem quite low.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Upper level low over Minnesota Friday night will drop east-southeast across the Great Lakes through Saturday night before lifting north into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This being said, the surface low currently over the mid-Atlantic will have exited east while the surface low correlating with the aforementioned upper level low over the upper Great Lakes will place a surface cold front across the central Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Friday night. This front will pass across the region Friday night through Saturday, supporting showers and a few thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms Saturday morning may become severe, especially along the cold frontal boundary as there will be increasing values of effective bulk shear and steep lapse rates.

In the wake of the frontal passage Saturday afternoon across the west, a drier and cooler airmass will filter across the region with winds becoming quite breezy. However, the area won't be completely dry as lake breeze boundaries develop and support a few showers and thunderstorms north and south of the boundaries. Meanwhile with the front remaining across the eastern half of the area, showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday afternoon across the northern Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region.

As the upper level low and corresponding trough settles across the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday night and pulls northeast into New England Sunday, cool moist air rotating across the area will support scattered showers to linger.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level low and corresponding trough will lie across New England Monday with a ridge building to the west across the upper Great Lakes, placing the region in the entrance region of the trough across the Northeast through at least Wednesday. The next closed upper level low will then develop by mid-week. Long range model guidance continues to have timing, development and placement discrepancies with this mid-week system. This all being said, expect a skinny ridge of surface high pressure to lie across the Great Lakes through the first few days of the new work week. Then, expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday and last through Thursday.

Otherwise, temperatures next week will average a good ten degrees cooler than normal due to the placement of the upper level trough overhead.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions dominate this evening outside of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity that has moved east of KJHW.
This activity will continue to diminish through the evening. All sites will continue to be VFR until a line of convection starts to enter from the west generally around 08z or so. There is still ample uncertainty as to how decayed this line will be as it approaches the area, however it seems that KJWH/KBUF/KIAG have the best chance of seeing thunder as it crosses in the predawn hours and gradually decays, especially as it moves east of KROC. Behind this line, a period of MVFR or near IFR cigs are likely at all sites until better mixing arrives after 16z.
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be around after 16z generally KROC eastward as well.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Restrictions likely at times with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers east of KROC.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Generally light winds and waves are evident over the lower Great Lakes this evening. Some marine fog development is likely overnight, especially over Lake Ontario.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area late tonight through Friday morning. After that line passes on Friday morning, dry conditions over the lakes look to resume.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.