Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure across Ohio will build over Western NY tonight. The gradient between departing low and the surface high will cause breezy conditions this afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph. Highest gusts will be downwind of the lakes.
Otherwise, high pressure will take control of the area and winds will diminish for tonight and Wednesday.

Temperatures will average near normal this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s tonight. A weak southerly return flow on Wednesday will allow high temperatures to rise into the 60s at most locations except the North Country.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will influence our weather through Thursday night, although a weak surface low will pass by just to the north during the day Thursday. This feature will bring some cloud cover and perhaps a stray showers, with the best chance for this across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

A stronger low pressure system will pass near the region, and although there's some spread in its track among model guidance there is general agreement that this will bring showers to the region late Friday into Saturday. Also can't rule out a few thunderstorms with this system, but that depends on the track of the surface low.

Otherwise, temperatures will average above normal throughout the period. High temperatures will average in the 70s with lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The low pressure system will exit to our east Saturday, but there will likely be some lingering showers for at least the first part of the day. After that, high pressure will build into the region for Sunday and Monday which will allow for quiet, dry weather. Highs on Saturday will be cooler in the 50s and slowly recover through Monday, reaching the 60s and lower 70s.

On Tuesday a weak warm front in the area will bring a small chance of showers. Otherwise, the warm pattern will remain with highs mainly in the 70s with 80s not out of the question in the warmer valleys.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Early this afternoon clouds have mostly scattered out south of Lake Ontario, with stratus based 3-4k feet still lingering east of Lake Ontario. The last of the clouds will continue to dissipate through this evening. Otherwise, winds will be gusty this afternoon with peaks 25 to 30 knots. The winds will drop off quickly by this evening.

High pressure with clear skies and light winds tonight. Some high clouds will move in from the west late tonight and Wednesday, with continued VFR weather during the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers and MVFR cigs.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later in the afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday...VFR.

MARINE
Elevated southwest winds remain across the region behind a cold front and ahead of an advancing high pressure system. Winds of 15 to 25 kts have prompted Small Craft Advisories for most of the marine forecast zones. These will drop off through this evening as high pressure builds into the region.

Light and generally variable flow expected across the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Easterly winds could increase to 10+ kts on Thursday on Lake Ontario with the weak system. There will be a late week system on Friday into Saturday that will elevate marine winds once again and headlines are possible behind the system on Friday night into Saturday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.