Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A broad, weak mid level circulation will remain over the Ohio Valley tonight. Moisture will continue to gradually spread northward, supporting periodic showers across western New York, the Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes. Instability remains very limited, with any thunder chances remaining very low. The North Country likely stays dry in closer proximity to strong high pressure and associated dry air and subsidence over New England.

On Wednesday, the upper level low weakens slightly, opening up to become a negatively tilted trough as it slowly lifts into the Great Lakes. An additional scattered coverage of showers is expected, but there should be plenty of rain free time with many areas not seeing any shower activity. Some diurnal instability develops along the Southern Tier allowing for just a limited threat for an afternoon thunderstorm.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The upper level trough over the region Wednesday night will continue to weaken and lift away from the region through Thursday night.
Little in the way of forcing noted through this period, so while additional showers are expected, there should be a trend toward lesser coverage with diurnal timing favoring a better coverage Thursday.

A lead shortwave trough, ahead of a main central CONUS trough, is expected to approach and cross the region late Thursday night and Friday. This feature will send a potent warm front through the Great Lakes, which in addition to bolstering the warm spell will also cause another round of showers to spread across the forecast area from the west later Thursday night into Friday. Still some uncertainty in timing of this feature, though there looks to be enough elevated instability present to warrant some thunder chances despite otherwise unfavorable diurnal timing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A vertically stacked low over the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning and its broader longwave trough will continue its eastward progression across the rest of the Great Lakes through Sunday before exiting across the Northeast Sunday night and Monday. Overall, the alluded to surface low over the Great Lakes will push a warm front across the area Friday night, with a cold front to pass across the region Saturday. Then in the wake of the frontal passage, showers will linger across the region Sunday due to cool cyclonic flow across the region. While there will be periods of rain this weekend, the weekend won't be an entire washout with some dry moments at times. Additionally should mention that a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out Saturday afternoon due to instability within the warm sector ahead of the incoming cold front.

Brief upper level ridging will work its way into the area Monday night and Tuesday, supporting Canadian high pressure to sag far enough south across New York State Monday and Tuesday, supporting a brief period of dry weather.

After above normal temperatures Saturday ahead of the frontal passage, the cold front will drop temperatures back down towards normal for mid to late May.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A broad, weak upper level low will drift slowly north across the Ohio Valley through tonight. Periodic showers are expected through tonight, with a mix of MVFR/VFR CIGS For lower elevations and MVFR/IFR higher terrain. The North Country will stay mainly dry and VFR through tonight, in closer proximity to high pressure and associated dry air and subsidence over New England.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with chance of of a few showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

MARINE
High pressure over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes today will gradually drift southeast over the Atlantic over the next few days. A broad, weak area of low pressure will gradually move into the Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient between the 2 features will maintain east to southeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today through Thursday. Winds will occasionally reach around 15 knots on Lake Ontario, producing choppy conditions.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.