Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid-level shortwave trough will drift east into the Ohio Valley today. Several weak waves of low pressure will ripple east along a stalled frontal boundary draped across Ohio and Pennsylvania, supporting a period of showers across the southern half of the area this morning, before retreating back southward this afternoon. Areas generally north of the NYS Thruway should remain dry through today, with only an outside chance for a shower this morning.

Tonight, the more organized rain will stay south and east of our area. A few spotty showers are still possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, otherwise dry weather is expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Canadian-sourced surface high pressure will dominate our weather through the period, while the stalled out frontal boundary remains to our south, stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic states. While this setup will feature the expected comfortable temperatures with tolerable humidity levels by mid June standards, it may not be 'completely' dry as one would expect. This will be owed to a weakness in the high that will be in the form of an inverted trough extending north across our region from an area of weak low pressure slowly tracking east along the stalled out boundary to the south. Despite this, still expecting much of the time to be dry, however can't rule out a few scattered showers for some areas. With a general lack of any strong synoptic forcing and limited moisture, bulk of any scattered activity that does manage to develop will be mainly during the hours of peak heating. Best chances to remain completely dry will be toward the Canadian border.

High temperatures that will remain a bit below average for the second half of the weekend will get a bit of an upward bump, nearing normal levels to start off the new work week. This will occur as high pressure translates off the coast of Nova Scotia, causing winds to gradually veer from northeast to southeast creating a warming return flow on the back side of the high.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A quasi-zonal flow pattern across the northern half of the CONUS to start off the period, will see a more noticeable pattern change heading into the midweek timeframe as a phasing shortwave pattern over the upper Midwest causes a deeper, more robust trough to be carved out across the Great Lakes. This system will also force the stalled boundary over the Ohio Valley to finally lift back northward as a warm front, which is expected to move through the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, opening the door to a much warmer and more humid summer-type airmass. The increase in low level jet forcing, moisture, and instability in the warm sector behind this front could set the stage for a rather active period of weather between Wednesday and Thursday. Just looking at the overall setup, the possibility for some stronger storms is definitely on the table.
That said...the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming trough and associated surface low/attendant cold front remain in question at this range, and thus uncertainty is high in the details and overall potential for more robust convection. Confidence is higher in a brief warmup with widespread high temperatures in the 80s expected by Wednesday afternoon, and possibly Thursday afternoon as well, just dependent on the timing of the cold front.

Temperatures, humidity levels, and shower/thunderstorm chances will lower by the end of the work week behind the system, although some medium range guidance does hint at a lingering upper level trough over the area, which may keep things a bit unsettled. Confidence is higher that a cooler and more refreshing airmass will be in place for the tail end of the period, however chances for at least some precipitation will linger.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers will continue south of a KBUF-KSYR line this morning. Cigs this morning will remain high end MVFR/low end VFR, but IFR across the Southern Tier including KJHW.

Showers will gradually retreat southward, with most areas becoming dry by early afternoon. CIGS/VSBY will also improve back to VFR.
Farther north, expect mainly dry weather and VFR from the NYS Thruway northward.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
High pressure will build slowly east across Quebec this weekend while several waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled frontal zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient between these features will maintain northeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a moderate chop on both lakes.

High pressure will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday, with winds veering southeasterly and weakening on both Lakes. The weakening and now offshore flow component will allow waves to subside, with little to no chop expected for the start of the new work week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.