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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skaneateles, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 032326 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 726 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. A large storm system remains stalled out off the New England coast, with moisture still wrapping around across our region to cause a few showers along with patchy drizzle and fog for tonight. Dry and seasonable weather returns Saturday with high pressure building in, then a few rain showers return Sunday as a weak front moves through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 710 PM Update . Forecast is pretty much on track, though mention of patchy drizzle and fog was further broadened. Deeper moisture will diminish aloft overnight, yet the lowest 10 kft agl will be very saturated with minor lift/omega in the lower levels. Thus it will make for a drab drizzly night for many. Latest model guidance shows that some higher elevations of Southern Tier/Finger Lakes areas could easily have visibility drop under a mile. The overcast sky and damp conditions however will prevent temperatures from falling much, with lows of upper 30s- near 40 as mentioned below.

Previous discussion . As of 3 PM, a large stacked low continues to spin off the New England coast. Clouds and showers extend northwest of it across all of NY state and eastern PA. Rain showers will continue into this evening and maybe into the overnight in the Finger Lakes. Rainfall amounts will be light and mostly under a tenth of an inch. The initial north to south band of rain is over Steuben County where it has slowed its westward progress. A less organized band is pushing west into the Catskills. Temperatures now in the 40s with 850mb temperatures above freezing so only rain expected. Tonight temperatures only fall into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Showers will remain as rain or drizzle. With the saturated low layers and the wet ground, fog will be prevalent late tonight into Saturday morning. Most areas will remain as light fog.

Saturday clouds will start to clear as the deeper moisture drops southeast with the offshore low. High pressure will build in as heights at all levels rise providing sinking air. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the low and mid 50s with light winds.

Saturday night temperatures will again fall into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. This will be close to the dewpoint temperatures so patchy fog is again possible. Clouds will increase back to mostly cloudy late ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Generally quiet and seasonable weather is expected for the short term period.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through the area on Sunday. This will bring mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies along with a few scattered rain showers to the area. That being said, the majority of the area will likely remain dry most of the day. Highs will likely be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday night and Monday will feature dry weather as a surface high moves over the area. There will be a northwest flow pattern in the mid and upper levels. Should see partly to mostly sunny skies much of the day. Clouds may increase late. Seasonable with lows in the 30s and highs 55 to 65 Monday.

Monday night still looks mostly dry, although a brief rain shower will be possible across portions of the Twin Tiers. Chances for this are very low (15% or less). Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows back in the 30s to low 40s south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 220 PM Update . No changes were made to the long term forecast, as the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion:

Model differences arise by Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF is much stronger with an upper level disturbance swinging through northern New England on Tuesday. This would put our area in a dry, but cooler northwest flow pattern. Meanwhile the 00 GFS is much weaker with any Canadian or New England shortwave, and keeps our area under a flat ridge or zonal westerly flow. Either way it's looking mainly dry, with just a low chance for a shower . mainly Twin Tiers south into NE PA. If the ECMWF is correct, the whole area would remain dry, but breezy and a little cool. Went close to the NBM on temperatures for now considering the uncertainty . however did lower PoPs in collaboration with surrounding offices and based on the latest trends.

PoPs then increase mid to late next week as a series of better organized low pressure systems move through the region. Current indications are that one low moves through on Wednesday . with another, colder upper level low slowly moving through next Thursday and Friday. A slow moving, digging upper level low is favored considering the NAO is forecast to be quite negative still by days 7-8. Extensive upper level blocking is forecast in the global ensembles between Greenland and the northern portion of Hudson Bay.

This far out there are still model differences in the exact timing and other details. For now, went close to the NBM which gave 30-55 PoPs for rain showers . and even a rain-snow mix late in the extended period (Thursday night into Friday AM) . Temperatures look to stay seasonably mild Wednesday, falling a few degrees by next Thursday . and then likely even below average by the end of next week as a colder pool of air settles over the Northeast. Lows by Thursday night area forecast to range from 25-35 and highs perhaps only in the 40s next Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 730 pm update .

High relative humidity levels in the lower atmosphere will cause light fog and low ceilings to form overnight.

The lowest ceiling heights will occur at KBGM, KITH, and KELM, where IFR height restrictions are expected to develop between 00z and 04z.

In addition, visibilities will fall to between 2SM and 5SM across most of the region overnight. Winds will remain light.

We expect improvement in flight conditions Saturday afternoon with broken ceilings between 1500 and 3500 feet.

Saturday night through Sunday . Generally VFR.

Late Sunday through Sunday night . Possible showers/restrictions.

Monday . VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday . restrictions possible in rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP/TAC SHORT TERM . BJG/MJM LONG TERM . BJG/MJM AVIATION . DJP

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	36 mi	50 min	NW 8 G 8.9	41°F			1015.5 hPa	39°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	66 mi	20 min	NW 12 G 15	42°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	67 mi	50 min					1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	20 mi	26 min	W 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	44°F	41°F	89%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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