Thursday, May13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Skaneateles, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday May 13, 2021 7:50 AM EDT (11:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 9:23PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202105130915;;033725 Fzus51 Kbuf 130519 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 119 Am Edt Thu May 13 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-130915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 119 Am Edt Thu May 13 2021
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skaneateles, NY
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location: 42.95, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 131046 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 646 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mostly sunny skies today will help temperatures rebound from the cold start to return to the sixties. Temperatures will trend closer to average through the weekend, with small chances for afternoon showers and maybe a few thunderstorms each day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. 630 am update . Adjusted mostly temperatures since current temperatures were colder than expected. The coldest valleys in the southern tier were around 30.

230 AM Update .

Only made minor changes to the forecast. Quiet weather and still on the cool side but a slow warming trend is expected.

Early this morning temperatures falling into the 30s with light to calm winds and clear skies. Frost advisory remains in effect for most of the area. An area of clouds is breaking up as it slowly pushes south into the Finger Lakes.

Thursday: Starts off chilly and mostly sunny. Surface heating combined with a shallow layer of moisture will pop some cumulus late morning into the afternoon . mainly for the southern tier, Catskills and NEPA. There could be enough lift for isolated showers over the higher terrain of Steuben and Bradford counties. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with low to mid 60s. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday night: Skies clear and winds go light again. Slowly building heights surface and aloft. Temperatures fall back to the mid and upper 30s to low 40s Wyoming Valley and Finger Lakes. Frost advisory probably not needed with temperatures again several degrees warmer than this morning.

Friday: Again a little warmer with highs mid to upper 60s. Weak instability and shear along with weak forcing should produce scattered showers for the Catskills and NEPA Friday afternoon. Not enough instability to put in thunder. CAPE is less than 200 J/Kg.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 319 am update . Main concerns in the short term are focused on the warmer than recent temperatures along with the chance of afternoon/evening showers and a few weak thunderstorms this weekend.

High pressure at the surface will be floating east across the region this weekend as the flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal behind a weak upper ridge axis which shifts off the coast Friday night/Sat morning. The air mass will be relatively dry, as temperatures continue to inch warmer, which will help steepen low level lapse rates and make for slightly unstable conditions in the afternoon Sat and Sun.

A few passing embedded short waves within the flow will likely provide enough lift when combined with the weak daytime instability to trigger afternoon convective cloud development. The uncertainty lies in if there will be enough deep moisture to sustain the building convection or if the dry air aloft will mix into the boundary layer and limit the areal extent of the showers and the overall potential for weak thunderstorms.

At this time we are continuing with the chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon storms for Sat and Sun. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 60s to lower 70s . with overnight lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 319 am update . Gradually rising heights aloft and the influence of weak high pressure at the surface will keep weather conditions quiet and warm across the region through the early half of next week.

There is a warm front that will stretch out west to east across the mid Atlantic Monday and Tuesday, which may allow some of the convection along and north of the front to reach into northern PA . so have a mention of a chance of showers during this period, but confidence is not very high given latest deterministic model guidance trends of a further southern track of the warm front.

Otherwise, quiet weather with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s . and possibly an afternoon popup shower.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 630 am update .

VFR throughout the TAF period. Scattered cumulus this afternoon. A very small chance of a brief non restrictive sprinkle at KELM.

Light and variable winds early this morning. Late morning through the afternoon northwest winds at 8 kts. Back to light and variable winds tonight.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . VFR, but isolated pop-up showers possible each afternoon.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043- 044-048-072. NY . Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

SYNOPSIS . TAC NEAR TERM . TAC SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 36 mi56 min WSW 5.1 G 8 48°F 1024.6 hPa37°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 66 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 7 50°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 67 mi56 min 49°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY20 mi56 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds46°F37°F71%1024.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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W12NW10W9W6W5N3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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